A Texan's blog
Posted at 11:07am on Jul. 11, 2008 What McCain should say before "La Raza": A Generous and Pro-American Immigration Policy
By A Texan
Friends,
Politically, McCain is in an apparently difficult position on the issue of immigration reform. Having supported a purportedly "comprehensive" program, a program opposed by the majority of the American people and by the vast majority of the coalition on which his election will depend--he has switched positions to one somewhat less repugnant to that coalition.
At the same time, it is at least plausible to say that a winning coalition for McCain would depend upon his rejecting a "comprehensive" reform that encompasses only border security, attrition, and deportation. In one relevant particular, such an approach could cost us a large chunk of the 40% or so of the Hispanic vote that Bush won in 2004, and could reduce us to 20% or less (a la 1996). In addition, it would also be a deterrent to other groups composed largely of first and second-generation Americans.
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Posted at 4:38pm on Jul. 7, 2008 "Defend firearms. Defeat Dukakis."
By A Texan
I remmeber seeing this bumpersticker on alot of pickup trucks in 1988. I think it was simple and effective. I hope it's re-used again in this campaign.
Defend marriage. Defeat Obama.
Defend firearms. Defeat Obama.
And the like.
Gosh, I hope that the GOP opens up a can of whoop-liberal by the GOP Convention.
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Posted at 12:29pm on Jun. 6, 2008 Brace yourselves for some bad polls--but don't freak out just yet.
By A Texan
The press is right now in full-fledged worship of Obama, celebrating how great we are as Americans for nominating him, including cute human-interest stories (like the fist bump). Reminds me of the lovefest in the summer of love (1992) for Bill Clinton.
Already, we're seeing the effects on the polls. Nationally, Rasmussen is already showing Obama taking a 5-point lead. And today, Rasmussen shows Obama with a 1-point lead in Missouri. Expect other polls to show him with a 10-point lead nationally, and lo-and-behold, they'll say, he's poised to win a swath of red states. Perhaps even the word landslide will be uttered. And repeated discussion of REpublican demoralization, on the one hand, and the need for McCain to further break-away from "archconservatives."
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Posted at 11:04am on Jun. 3, 2008 Is the "deck already stacked against McCain"? Polls suggest otherwise.
By A Texan
Politico's Michael Cohen writes that "[t]he deck is already stacked against McCain, as the GOP nominee. It is unusual for any party to win three straight national elections; it has happened only once in the past 60 years. With the specter of George W. Bush and his vast unpopularity hanging over McCain’s campaign, the challenge is even greater."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10772.html
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Posted at 10:08am on May 28, 2008 Reasons for non-despair--House elections and generic ballot
By A Texan
As to the GOP's prospects in the House this fall.
First, the bad news--on a national scale, we are in roughly the same position we were in on the eve of the November 2006 elections: Average of -12 in the generic ballot, which translated into a -7 in the eventual election. (Most pollsters have found that the Dems tend to have an advantage of +5 in the polls v. the eventual result.)
Today: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote...
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Posted at 12:30pm on May 26, 2008 Jim Talent for V-P
By A Texan
Just a quick blog to highly endorse the proposal that the McCain campaign at least consider Jim Talent as his running mate.
Just read this over at the Corner, and thought it was the best idea I've heard in a while.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZWU5YTQ3NzI4YTY4NjQ5MGFkZTQzMTZ...
Benefits:
1. Reliable across-the-board conservative. Pro-life, pro-family, and ran on a pro-victory-in-Iraq platform in '06.
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Posted at 1:23pm on May 20, 2008 God bless Senator Kennedy
By A Texan
Breaking news that Senator Kennedy has a malignant brain tumor--discovered after his seizure.
May God truly bless Senator Kennedy and his family with His abundant love and mercy.
Posted in Breaking News — Comments (58) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:48pm on Apr. 23, 2008 What McCain's likely victory will mean for GOP congressional prospects
By A Texan
Given recent results in congressional elections and current polls, and given the beating we took in 2006, there is significant concern that 2008 will result in the Democrats making sweeping gains in the House and Senate.
Given the electoral history of the past few decades, I believe that the fears of Democrats picking up an additional 5 or more seats in the Senate, or 20 or more seats in the House, are WAY overstated, PROVIDED McCain wins by a few points or more in November.
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Posted at 12:51pm on Apr. 12, 2008 I HAD a (mini) crush on Obama. But I am SOOO over him.
By A Texan
Back in January, on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, I wrote the following about Obama:
"Obama--genuinely nice guy. Charismatic as all get-out. He may succeed, at least in part, in rallying the American people, getting past the Red-Blue divide.
...........
He will be the strongest candidate in the field against us. I think we can beat him, but it will be tough."
http://redstate.com/blogs/a_texan/2008/jan/07/some_nice_things_to_say_ab...
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Posted at 2:19am on Mar. 19, 2008 Obama compares Reagan Democrats to anti-American, racist preachers
By A Texan
So I'm reading through Obama's speech and I note that once again Obama refers to Reagan in an ambiguous way. In it, he suggests that just as Wright's hatred of America is an understandable (tho unjustifiable) response to racial discrimination, so too was the formation of the "Reagan coalition" an understandable reaction to "the middle class squeeze"--which resulted from the pervasive corruption of our corporate and political culture, including economic policies that favor the rich.
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Posted at 1:12pm on Mar. 4, 2008 The globalists won't let McCain win unless...
By A Texan
In case you haven't heard, the whole world is controlled by a small group of individuals who meet at Bohemian Grove and other select spots. They raise and depose presidents and kings, they run the world financial systems and organized religions.
Obviously, they are gonna have their say in the upcoming presidential election.
To those who have eyes to see, their fingerprints appear everywhere in presidential "elections' (more like selections) ever since they had to take out Warren Harding.
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Posted at 1:25pm on Mar. 3, 2008 Dear Fellow Texans--Vote for McCain Tomorrow--Even if Not Exciting
By A Texan
So, like, wow. It's Texas--and we're actually seeing campaign ads for presidential candidates. Long before I was a Texan, Texas was a campaign stop, a swing state in '68, '76--and Reagan even campaigned here in 1980. But with our late primary, presidential candidates rarely come here unless they're named Bush and show up to vote.
So I'm getting robo-called, seeing TV commercials, and hearing of big rallies near my office. It's all so new and wonderful.
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Posted at 11:06am on Feb. 26, 2008 Contra Lincoln, Obama flip-flopped on giving our troops what's necessary "to win"
By A Texan
Obama has been, it seems, fairly consistent in opposing the propriety of the decision to invade Iraq in 2003.
But he does not appear to have been consistent in supporting the troops once they've been committed to the field of battle.
In March 2003, he said that regardless of whether they oppose or supported the decision to invade, the American people "absolutely want to make sure that the troops have sufficient support to be able to win and make this as swift, with as few casualties as possible."
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Posted at 12:35am on Feb. 23, 2008 Mrs. Clinton handled herself well today in Dallas--Don't count her out
By A Texan
As you may have heard, a police officer was killed while working on Mrs. Clinton's motorcade in Dallas.
She handled the incident with grace and compassion. The local news here in Dallas is giving her very favorable coverage.
She may very well win Texas--even handily. And if she couples that with a good win in Ohio, then she'll be back in the race.
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Posted at 6:06pm on Feb. 19, 2008 Spooked by the recent polls??
By A Texan
Well, new polls show that, if the election were held today, McCain would lose in a head-to-head match-up against Obama, perhaps by as much as 8 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_electi...
Spooked? Scared? Should we just declare "game over"?
Nah.
Polls in February 2004, February 2000, March 1992, March 1988, and March 1984 ALL significantly overstated the position of the eventual loser of the popular vote (yes, that includes Bush 2000). (1996 was an exception--roughly the same). Rough average of all is that the eventual loser lost 11 points of advantage relative to their relative position in February-March.
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