Redstate

I wonder how much of this type of strategy might play into the results tomorrow. My guess is that Romney already has most of the potential Thompson supporters by now anyway. But we'll see.

Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.

11%, when the top pollers are at maybe 20%, is not out.

Those who "get" Fred, and are convinced he's the man, and yet run for the tall grass when it is still very much a contest, get nothing from me.

See ya. This Texan is dead to you.

Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie

Fred & Romney have long been my top two (in that order). However, if I were in NH, I'd vote Romney tomorrow too. Fred has no chance in the state, & if McCain wins it ... well, I don't want to think about it. He's not conservative. He's betrayed us too often. We need to keep him from gaining any momentum. A NH loss would kill him, & I'd be glad to see him go. Vote Romney tomorrow Fredheads.

A Romney victory in NH is the end of the McCain candidacy. McCain's withdrawal is HUGE for Thompson.

Thompson's my man, and I'm with him until the end, but he can't stay in this for long unless someone else drops out. Romney has too much money to drop out. Huckabee is winning in delegates. Guiliani hasn't even started yet. McCain can be finished before we get to South Carolina.

For that reason alone (although your reasons are persuasive), I support Mitt in New Hampshire and Michigan.

--
"If you're looking for a real conservative, why are you supporting Huckabee? He's completely discredited himself. What about Fred Thompson? If you're looking for a real conservative?" -- Rush Limbaugh (1/7/08)

Sorry...this Fredhead will join McCain's ship if and when Fred's out. I will not support Romney, unless he gets the nomination.

"The conqueror is always a lover of peace; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed."
- Karl von Clausewitz

.

I tried to tell you guys and gals that this isn't a normal election. I've lived through many elections going back to the Truman Administration. You folks are jumping up and down like you are watching the ticker on Wall Street on a bad day. Quit letting the media tell you what to think. What do we know right now? Huckabee won Iowa, Romney won Wyoming, and McCain will probably win New Hampshire. I don't see anyone breaking out of the pack yet. If Thompson wins or comes in a close second in South Carolina we are back to square one. The only damage done so far is Tancredo pulling out, Hunter appears to be melting down, and Ron Paul being forced out of the lime light by the media in the New Hampshire race. As we head south Thompson could well become much more competitive which will bring in more money. If Thompson tanks in South Carolina Romney's money will probably be the difference in the long run. But I don't feel any great shift in the wind yet and if the race continues this way I wouldn't bet against a brokered convention. At that point my money will be on the consensus candidate that just about everyone can live with and the candidate that appears to the voters to be most Presidential. That would most likely be Thompson. I know things have to go right for him to stay in it till then but I wouldn't count him out just yet. We will know more after South Carolina.

they think he cant win so support goes elsewhere.

for what its worth, Romney is NOT a genuine conservative. Sure, he espouses the notions for the moment, but is no more conservative than Rudy or Huck when it gets down to brass tacks. No, I am not joking either.

At least Rudy understands foriegn policy and has a spine enough to not try and play "indentity politics" to make people believe he is something he isnt.. and Huckabee isnt a gun grabber like Romney is (who lied about being endorsed by the NRA).

So sure, vote Romney, but he aint who the party leadership is trying to make him out to be. There is only one real conservative in this race - and its THOMPSON. PERIOD.

I find your logic skewed, and if you would expend your efforts convincing all of your friends to ask the question, "What does it mean to be Conservative?" or "What does the Constitution say about X,Y,Z?" Fred might pick up some points in NH. Don't worry about the polls, much of this will burn off. People wear out easily, and at that time, Fred's consistent Conservative message will be there to remind them of what principles have made our country the greatest experiment ever attempted by Man. By the way, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham both plugged the Heritage Foundation today because of a new initiative titled - "What Would Reagan Do?" http://heritage.org This is a move in the Right direction. Go Fred!!!

I hope Romney doesn't do well in NH and MI so that the "coalition conservatives" (FiCons+SoCons+DefCons) who may have been supporting Romney in SC switch to Fred, propeling him to victory in SC. For precisely this reason I hoped that Romney didn't win any early primaries, so that the "coalition conservatives" ditch Romney flock to Fred in SC.

I think your strategic voting is flawed.

Guns don't kill people, abortions kill people.

...coalition," but he also represents everybody else in the world that he wants something from. How does he do it? He takes his ever-malleable "core beliefs" (hah!), and focus-groups and polls the people he wants something from (like, I don't know, a nomination for President) beforehand to make sure he's all things to all people that he needs at the time.

Great, sound reasoning for trusting someone, isn't it? I know I'd feel comfortable taking the word of a glorified used car salesman.

If you're going to do strategic voting, then I don't think it matters whether you vote for Romney or McCain in NH.

If Romney wins, the McCain is mortally wounded, and may be out. I see a good deal of that support flowing to Thompson. Some to Rudy, but I think most of it goes to Thompson.

If McCain wins, then Romney is badly hurt, especially since he's everyone's idea of the winner with the cash and the organization. Can't be the momentum candidate if you can't win a state. I see a lot of folks starting to think about switching to Fred to beat Rudy and/or Huckabee (pick whichever you can't stand).

I think it's telling that Fred with $12m in the bank has spent so little of it so far. The man has never lost an election; it's a bad idea to overlook him.

-TS

"When men fear work or fear righteous war, when women fear motherhood, they tremble on the brink of doom; and well it is that they should vanish from the earth." - Teddy Roosevelt

Huck's going to sweep the south, win the nomination, and beat Obama.

Once McCain wins tomorrow, Romney is done.

Once Huck wins SC, Fred is done

Once Huck wins Florida, Rudy is done.

Once Huck wins California, Texas, and all of the south, McCain is done.

Huck might sweep the south,I won't write that off, but him beating Obama's gonna be a tough one. Honestly I don't know which I'd prefer, if Huck didn't have an (R) in front of his name it'd be even harder. They are both nanny stater's, both are pretty much ignorant on foreign policy (Obama less so, but still pretty bad). Personally I would like/be excited for/volunteer for: Fred, Rudy and Romney. My top choice is Fred, but I wouldn't mind Rudy or Romney. Mccain I'd like, but I don't know how excited I would be. Huckabee I would need to hold my nose for.

P.S. A Texan-great argument, echoing the sound reasoning that National Review did in its endorsement of Romney

According to inside sources, Fred plans to drop out and support McCain if he finishes behind Rudy in NH!!!! Don't waste your vote! Vote McCain!

:)

Where do you think supporters of Romney or McCain will go when their candidate loses New Hampshire and Michigan? Whichever one loses NH probably will also lose Michigan (analysis by DaveG at race42008.com). I can't see supporters of either going to the other. Nor do I see them going to Huckabee. That leaves Giuliani and Thompson and in both cases Thompson is the more likely recipient. So after tomorrow either Romney or McCain will be on the way out and Thompson should benefit. Romney is the stronger opponent and the one who is closer to being a conservative (National Review endorsed him) so he is the one I want out. That would leave Thompson as clearly the only true conservative. The sooner that Republicans realize that there is only one real conservative, Thompson, that Romney is gone and Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani aren't real conservatives, the sooner that Thompson will rise to the top.

The best way to get Fred in is to get Romney out.

"Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."

If Fred Thompson finishes first in New Hampshire, John McCain will drop out and throw his support to Hillary Clinton.

I'm not an agent, I just write books

Why not vote for Fred? With his solid performance in the debates, he would just need a little boost to get into at least 4th, if not 3rd. That could give him a mini boost.

Also, Romney is a total fraud. Not sure why anyone would support him anyway in a primary with a real conservative in the race.

But either way you boost your guy. Fred finishing 3rd or 4th would be good in a state he's not trying in.

And I'd probably do the same thing in South Carolina as a Romney backer.

Let's face it: if you're a solid conservative, you've got to want Romney or Fred. I've fought the fights. I think it's time to step back, view the scene, and take it for what it is. No leveraging. No games. I want one of these two guys.

The only way that Thompson gets any footing whatsoever is if he wins South Carolina. But to do that, he has to be noticed. You don't get noticed in 4th place.

Right now McCain and Romney are 2nd and 3rd in South Carolina, the order depending on which poll you look at. But when you start doing delegate counts, only McCain is mortally wounded by a loss in New Hampshire. Frankly, Romney still leads after all the votes are cast in New Hampshire providing something catastrophic.

McCain's campaign, on the other hand, hemorrages with a loss in New Hampshire. And what else happens? Huckabee's win in Iowa looks a little less impressive, and Mitt keeps momentum and wins Michigan, having won twice before.

Let me spell it out: a Huckabee win in Michigan would be disastrous for Thompson. Yes, it would sink Romney and McCain. But at that point, South Carolina is the Huckster's--in a blow out.

At that point, Thompson is toast.

As a Romney supporter and a conservative, that is a very bad thing in my book. Fred has to beat Huckabee in South Carolina to sweep the south. Has to. The best way he handles that is to suck the wind out of Huckabee's sails. A Romney with two wins is the best means of making that happen. Suddenly Huckabee isn't the poster boy. He isn't the upstart. The flavor of the month is back in the bin with everyone else.

The South likes to vote for their own. I just want them voting for Fred--not Huckabee.

"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan

Romney is also my strong second behind Fred. My problem is that he is also the candidate whose supporters would most likely go to Fred were he to withdraw. Therefore, there is a part of me that does not mind events that weaken his candidacy.

However, there is the fact that every other candidate is unacceptable to me and I strongly believe none of them can win the general election, because they cannot unify the conservative coalition.

Therefore, barring a miraculous Fred surge in New Hampshire, which I unfortunately do not see happening, I will be strongly rooting for a Romney victory today. That keeps my second choice viable, and Fred would still benefit if we could stick a fork in McCain's candidacy today.

Either way, all Fredheads need to put tremendous effort and energy into a Fred comeback/victory in South Carolina. After that, the sky is the limit.

“Be prepared! Find the bastards. And pile on!”
Karl Rove - "(T)he motto on the unit coin of the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment, the Blackhorse."

Thanks for y'alls' replies.

Generally, the objections to my conclusions fall into three categories.

1. First, Romney is not the best conservative alternative to Thompson. McCain (or Giuliani or Huckabee) is. Romney is not a genuine conservative, etc.

I am very sympathetic to this position, as it was mine about six-months ago. I remember in anger receiving campaign literature from him with Jim Talent's endorsement. I felt betrayed by Talent, whose loss in '06 was the most bitter for me. And I remember living in Boston in 1994, watching Romney seemingly argue that he loved abortion just as much as, if not more than, Ted Kennedy.

Without going into enormous detail, I've changed my mind. I now find Romney's purported conversion to the pro-life cause at least credible. Second, as to other issues, I have not yet found evidence of a material change in position; rather he has changed his tone, changed his emphasis, on a number of issues, but he has seemingly been consistent. But I will someday have time to make this another blog post.

2. Strategic voting is disloyal.

I have been enthusiastic for Thompson. I have not taken an oath of loyalty to him. He still seems to me to be the most thoughtful and solid conservative in the race, so I prefer him. But my loyalty is to our country, our Constitution, our great political enterprise--and I think the success of that enterprise depends upon the Republican Party, and more specifically, the conservative coalition at the heart of that party.

As such, I earnestly want the best steward, or the least bad steward, we can find--who must be a good representative of the coalition. For reasons I've suggested, I think Thompson would be good, Romney a close second, McCain a distant third, and the others far behind.

My proposed strategic voting, then, is designed to serve my loyalty to America.

And for what it's worth, Thompson is not making a stand in New Hampshire. I will enthusastically support him in his stand in South Carolina.

3. Strategic voting is imprudent.

On the one hand it is said that Thompson's interests are served more by a wounded Romney than a wounded McCain. I honestly have no opinion either way on this.

On the other hand, it is said, more generally, that it's imprudent cause you never know what might happen. True--and for that reason, I would not vote, e.g., for Ron Paul for him to wound Giuliani, or for any candidate I could not enthusiastically support.

I can support Romney enthusiastically. I much more fear the prospect of having to settle for my number 3, 4, or 5 (all of whom are far behind my top 2) than to settle for my number 2 guy.

Therefore, may Romney win today. And may Thompson win in South Carolina. I would be very happy if the race came down to those two fellows.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

Would love to see Romney and Fred on the same ticket if Fred could get up a head of steam. McCain and Huck seem to have made some sort of deal. They will sandwich any candidate that gets in the other's way. Fred is the elder statesman with the big picture view. Romney is the best equipped to deal with the coming economic crisis. Even after NH, Romney would have the most delegates to date. Right now, Fred has 8, not that far off from McCain, even if he picks up 6 in NH. We have to stop listening to the drive-bys and add up delegates instead.

P.S Fred looked good this morning on CNN (except for the earpiece problem) and the reporter finally asked him about real issues.

It is vitally important that NH Fred supporters turn out for FRED!!!

Stop being too smart by half. If you support Fred, THEN GO VOTE FOR FRED!!!

Stick to your conservative principles and reject the liberalism of Romney, Huckabee, and McCain!!!

I don't have the time to read this whole thread, so If this thought has already been offered - then my apologies.

First, I don't agree with this approach for helping Fred.

In fact I'm hoping McCain beats Romney today. Why? If is the outcome then it may signal the beginning of the end for Romney. If so, where are Romney supporters going to go? To McCain? To Huckabee? or to Fred?

Even if McCain has a victory tonight, I don't believe he goes much further than NH. So when McCain tanks, where are his supporter going to go? To Romney? Not likely, his ship will already be in trouble? To Huckabee? Not likely either, the Huckabust should be in full motion by then. To Fred? Maybee...

So in short - I'm hoping for a McCain victory to help take Romney out. McCain has already taken himself out with real conservatives and won't last much past NH. The Huckabust hasn't fully manifested itself yet, but it should. So where is this freed up support going to go? I for one am hoping it goes to Fred.

Perhaps wishful thinking....

There is no way Romney doesn't go into South Carolina with more delegates and far more money than any other candidate He already has several endorsements from prominent South Carolinians. Any one putting forth a scenario where Romney is not still in the top tier of candidates for South Carolina is delusional....unless there is no top tier anymore because Mitt squeeked out a win in NH and then continues with a significant win in MI. For that matter I also don't think there is any way Mitt is out before Feb 5, as long as he remains remotely relevent with 2nd and 3rd place finishes because it is likely that different people will be placing 1st ahead of him. I also don't see Fred dropping out before Feb 5, unless he falls flat in SC. I agree with previous ideas that Fred's best chance might me if no one gets the delegates needed to win the nomination outright.

I would be excited about Mitt or Fred,
OK with Rudy,
unhappy with McCain,
Writing in Gomer Pyle vice voting Huckabee