The Changing Electoral Map: OH, AK, MT
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (30) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Three Rasmussen polls show that we still are learning what the new map will look like in 2008.
AK:
McCain 57
Clinton 42
McCain 48
Obama 43
MT:
McCain 54
Clinton 36
McCain 48
Obama 43
OH:
McCain 47
Clinton 42
McCain 47
Obama 40
Analysis:
So nominating Obama improves the Ds chance in AK (by 10 points) and MT (by 13) but hurts them in OH (by 2). If the Ds nominate Clinton, this is further proof that the map will stay similar to the 1996-2006 map. OH is competitive but AK and MT are not. This seems to be similar with other Mountain West areas although CO, NM, and NV are probably competitive regardless of the D.
Obama-McCain will lead to a changed battleground. With a SEN and REP race in AK and a cheap market, Obama may sink a little of his massive pot of gold into the state. MT is similarly cheap to advertise in even though both are only worth 3 EVs. Also, if Obama campaigns/advertises in MT, AK and other small mountain states, he gets to forward his narrative of changing the political dynamic and competing in places where Ds don't usually compete.
We could be looking at MT being more competitive than OH. OH, of course, is worth far more in EVs. McCain leads Obama right now in FL, PA, and OH. That's a lot of EVs in his pocket if he can hold on to them. If he can flip MI as well, he pretty much has the election locked up. However, none of the rust belt states are going to be blow-outs.
Also, certain activists should start thinking about how to define Obama to make sure the Mountain West does not become competitive. His anti-gun rights views are obviously a big problem in these regions. I wonder if the NRA might drop a few bucks on the race in those states.
Furthermore, Obama's rich, liberal background and upper-class elitist support seems to have turned off blue collar workers in many regions. Why has the mountain west not seen a similar dynamic? I would suspect that controversies like the Rev. Wright relationship would hurt Obama in these regions. In 98% white states having a candidate's spiritual advisor say the country is the "US of KKK A" isn't going to help. And the connection to former Chicago anti-Vietnam terrorists as well as corrupt Chicago movers and shakers may make Obama into a normal urban politician rather than a "new" voice for "change."
Mr. Clinton related to many down-scale white voters but he still had trouble in the mountain west. What is Obama tapping into in that region (ex. anti-war sentiment?) that has him polling higher than any other Democrat in a generation.
New York: McCain vs. Clinton WNBC/Marist
McCain 46, Clinton 48, Und 6 Clinton +2
New York: McCain vs. Obama WNBC/Marist
McCain 48, Obama 46, Und 6 McCain +2
I highly doubt McCain can win New York against either Democrat, but it's interesting nonetheless that he's polling that well.
McCain also does surprisingly well in the Socialist Republic of Massachussetts too - at least against Obama.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Adam C posted this Marist poll in Red Hot the other day. It has a McCain/Rice ticket beating any variation of an Obama/Clinton ticket by 3 to 5 points in NY.
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Is this the "Condi" poll? There was one poll that showed a McCain/Rice ticket smashing a Obama/Clinton ticket in NY by like 5%.
Anyhow, McCain is doing well in Massachussetts because of two reasons:
A. Deval Patrick, they've heard this song before and it didn't end well.
B. Boston has more racist white people in it then the entire deep south combined. Oh sure, they might not talk that way, but they act that way when push comes to shove. They only elected Patrick because it was a terrible year for R's, R's had the Gov slot for 16 years, and Healey was a terrible candidate.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
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...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
New Mexico has been razor close in the past two presidential elections.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
McCain should help in New Mexico. He's the next-door Senator and he's relatively popular with Hispanics, while Barack, conversely, is unpopular with Hispanics. (I think NM has the highest % of Hispanics in the US, it's at least one of the top few states.)
Also, I'm not all that worried about keeping our two house seats. Piece's seat is safe, and while I can't remember his name, the guy who's running to replace Wilson is a very popular Sheriff of a liberal county. He was polling WELL ahead of his opposition, and is actually probably better situated to keep the seat then Wilson was.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
Obama will pick Richardson as his running mate. He makes to much sense. Foriegn policy exp, executive exp, and he is Hispanic (obama's worst demographic) and from a swing state.
I've been saying for a year that Richardson will be VP regardless of who got the nomination, for the same reasons you've cited. But now I'm no longer sure. He proved to be such a boring, uninspiring campaigner, and the thing most people know about him now is the whole "Judas" thing with Carvel. It's still possible, but I no longer think the possibility is any greater then anybody else.
If Obama wants a hispanic, he could pick Salazar, who's a lot better of a campaigner and is from a bigger swing-state.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
can afford to be boring and uninspiring with Obama heading the ticket. He's also a lot more experienced than Salazar.
Another possibility is Joe Biden. I think Joe Biden would be Obama's second best choice.
Obama certainly could win with Richardson, I just don't know that he'd bring all that much to the ticket. I've heard a lot of liberal hispanics complain that he's not "hispanic enough", as stupid as that sounds.
If he could keep Biden's mouth under control, he'd be a great pick. Nobody doubts Biden's smarts or experience. However, Biden does have a serious ego problem. I don't know if he could control him. He'd be a very Dick Cheney like pick, and would go a long way to shoring up the experience question.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
he makes a stupid pick, like that Governor from Kansas who is getting talked up. She sounded like a fool during the democratic response and it would just help McCain pound the ticket's lack of foreign policy creds even more.
But this is a Kerry +3 district where the incumbent R barely won in 2006 and it took a major gaffe by the D nominee to put REP Wilson over the top.
White makes it competitive, but if I had to put money on it I'd bet D right now.
This is one of very few Kerry districts that Rs have any chance of winning.
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Yes, but the D candidate was a statewide candidate that time, and Wilson made mistakes too.
There have been several polls. Every one I've seen showed White leading by double-digits. He's got some serious crossover appeal, as tough-guy Sheriffs tend to have. See also: Dave Reichert (R) in a 3% Kerry district, Brad Elsworth (D) in a +20 Bush distict.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
Dem - 170,883 (46%)
Rep - 130,935 (35%)
Other - 73,160 (19%)
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Non-Hispanic White: 49%
Black: 2%
Hispanic: 43%
CQ rates it a "toss up."
White is a strong candidate and Rs should be very happy to have him. But this is going to be close, especially in a Presidential year.
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McCain will probably do better then Bush in the state, and White is the best possible candidate.
I'm not certain, of course, but I'd put money on White.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
Looks close either way. NM will definitely be a competitive state. And with a SEN and 3 open REP seats (all 3 in fact), it should get some major RNC money.
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I saw the New Mexico poll the troubling part of it looks to be the Senate Race
Udall is crushing both Wilson and Pearce!
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in New Mexico shows that Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) has widened his lead over both potential GOP opponents in the race for the state's open U.S. Senate seat.
Udall now leads Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM), 54% to 40%, and Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), 56% to 36%.
Key finding: "Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Udall has a twelve-point advantage over Pearce. Udall leads Wilson 52% to 33% in that category."
I always assumed Wilson would do well statewide seeing she represents swing district and would do well eventually in Pearce's district but now I am starting to think she has been very tarnished?
NM Senate Race looks to be bad for us
Grew up in Albuquerque, now live just north of N.M. in Colorado.
Agree McCain will be very good for whole ticket in N.M.
Bush was a drag. Just being from Texas was a problem here, causing artificial drop of a few points for GOP.
We'll get those few points back without a frigin' Texan leading the ticket.
Heather Wilson much better fit for state in a general election than Steve Pierce. She's also one of the sharpest current members of the House.
Darren Wilson is sheriff and he will win Wilson's old seat
love the on the ground stuff. Keep it coming.
Couple suggestions also: 1) Use "Reply to This" and 2) I think it's Sheriff Darren White.
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Darren Wilson, that was his name. Yes, he'll keep her old seat. Great candidate. He'll join Dave Reichert as some great GOP Sheriffs in Congress.
I donno about Wilson being the best though. She barely hung on last time, and that was before the U.S. Attorney thing (which was mostly bogus, admittedly, although I did think that the New Mexico guy got the shaft, although not the Seattle guy or the San Diego woman). Also, Pierce gets more hispanic votes in his district then she does in hers.
I know the other arguments, Pierce is too right for the state, his district is very rural so it isn't representative, etc. Might be true. I'm just not convinced either way.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
I think Obama's support in midwest and mountain states will fade. I don't think they car much for his poltics. I think they like his tone. Those areas assume a calmer tone than the North or the South or the rust belt or the bible belt. I believe people are rallying Obama as some soothing uniter, but once Spetmeber comes around, all that will be gone.
the fact that libs who've blighted such areas as California, New York, heck the whole east coast, and can no longer stand the problems they helped create are moving there and scorch earthing the old political realities by bringing their politics with them.
Tim Schieferecke
Clinton still does poorly. This is an Obama effect, not a general D effect.
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I'm about to update my election projection...
maps should be up in 15 minutes.
I suspect that Obama wont be doing so well in Alaska and Montana once his position on guns makes the rounds...
Both states have an independent/libertarian streak- and when it comes to economics and the 2nd amendment, hes a far cry from that.