Redstate

Posted at 11:49pm on Jul. 19, 2006 2008: Who is acceptable? McCain?

By Adam C2

Gallup has a new poll out on acceptability of possible candidates in 2008.  These are only Republicans polled on the Republican candidates:

2006 Jun 26-29 Yes No Net

Rudy Giuliani 73 25 +48

Condi Rice__ 68 29 +39

John McCain_ 55 41 +14

George Allen_ 36 35 +1

Newt Gingrich 45 50 -5

Bill Frist____ 38 44 -6

Mitt Romney__ 31 42 -11

Jeb Bush___ 44 52 -13

Dick Cheney__ 34 61 -17

George Pataki 33 51 -18

Mike Huckabee 17 40 -23

Sam Brownback 14 43 -29

Gallup led with the story that McCain has over 40% of Republicans who find him unacceptable.  That is accurate and I actually expected a higher number.  But the surprising part of these numbers is that the following people have higher negatives: Gingrich, Frist, Romney, Jeb Bush, Cheney, Pataki, and Brownback.  Also surprising is that McCain has the third highest net rating on acceptability.

Note that acceptability is not a pledge to vote for a person, but the most common criticism of McCain is that he is flat unacceptable to many conservatives.  This poll seems to show that he is no more unacceptable than other early 2008 hopefuls.  That must give heart to the McCainiacs.

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Posted at 2:19pm on Jul. 18, 2006 McCain Update

By Adam C2

From today's Political Diary ($ sub),

John McCain Takes Manhattan (Institute)

John McCain has been patching up relations with conservatives of late, and yesterday he attended a breakfast at the Manhattan Institute, New York's leading free-market think-tank, to rub shoulders with its donors....

He appealed to general conservative themes with a ringing endorsement of property rights, the use of nuclear power and the need to encourage democracy in Iran. But when asked why he had told Arizona reporters he supported the teaching of "intelligent design" in schools, the senator made clear he believed in the theory of evolution but that he didn't think students should be shielded from other ideas. "Local school boards, not the federal government, can decide where it is taught, and it doesn't have to be in science class," he said....

Mr. McCain said that he supported making the Bush tax cuts permanent and the use of private accounts to shore up Social Security. But he also called for a return to the spirit of cooperation that he said reigned during the Reagan administration when a bipartisan commission headed by Alan Greenspan helped patch up Social Security. He failed to note that to placate Democrats, the final product significantly increased the payroll tax in exchange for a gradual increase in the retirement age.

The senator also warned about a rising tide of protectionist trade sentiment....

Mr. McCain seemed clearly aware that his audience was not overly friendly to his efforts to limit campaign contributions. When asked if his desire for tougher campaign finance laws would interfere with him naming conservative judges such as John Roberts and Samuel Alito, Mr. McCain said he believed the issue had largely been settled and he looked forward to appointing judges conservatives would approve of.

All in all, Mr. McCain scored points by giving direct answers to most of the questions he received and for exhibiting a refreshing candor about the need for Republicans to restrain spending if they hope to bring their voters to the polls in future elections. He has clearly decided that the Republican Party is a big tent, and that to win the 2008 nomination for president he needs good relations with groups in every corner of it.

Emphasis mine.

He may not have many fans here, but he is clearly winning over converts as time goes by.  Republicans have a habit of nominating the person "whose turn it is" as opposed to the Democrats ability to pick a new face, for better or for worse.  I am still holding out hope for a Gov Sanford or Gov Pawlenty run.  But at least if McCain becomes the nominee, it seems he is learning to engage all parts of the party rather than run against it.  He's learned some lessons from 2000 and it seems to be benefiting him.

Update [2006-7-18 14:22:52 by Adam C]: Some parts of the story were deleted to meet the guidelines of the WSJ's subscription agreement barring total re-printing of an article.

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Posted at 12:19pm on Jul. 17, 2006 MD-SEN: Cheer for Mfume

By Adam C2

That's the lesson repeated by almost every poll in this race and the most recent one from the Baltimore Sun is no different:

PRIMARY:

"If the primary were held today, the survey finds, each candidate would get about three out of 10 votes....

Cardin, a 10-term congressman who lives in Baltimore County and represents Maryland's 3rd District, leads Mfume among white voters, 41 percent to 14 percent; among those 65 and older, 33 percent to 21 percent; and among those who frequently vote in primaries, 34 percent to 26 percent....

Mfume, a former five-term Baltimore congressman and past president and chief executive officer of the NAACP, leads Cardin among African-American voters, 57 percent to 12 percent. He leads among voters under 35, 39 to 17 percent; and among occasional primary voters, 32 percent to 23 percent."

GENERAL:

Steele 36

Cardin 47

Steele 40

Mfume 42

"Among white voters, Steele leads Mfume, 48 percent to 33 percent. Among African-American voters, Mfume leads Steele, 71 percent to 11 percent."

The primary isn't until September, so this one has a while to go.  No matter what, the late primary will suck money away from the eventual Democratic nominee.  The best case scenario for Lt. Gov. Steele is for the Democrats to go negative on each other, especially if Rep. Cardin goes negative on ex-Rep. Mfume.  This would likely upset many black Democrats who are already upset with the Democratic treatment of Mr. Mfume.  Specifically, when Mr. Mfume was the first to enter the race no Democratic bigwigs jumped in to support him.  But when Mr. Cardin threw his hat in the ring, they started lining up.  This lack of support for black candidates did not go unnoticed.  If it is followed up by a negative campaign, then two things might happen that would help Mr. Steele.  This assume that Mr. Cardin does win, which is still more likely.

First, Mr. Mfume may refuse to endorse Mr. Cardin.  Mr. Steele and Mr. Mfume seem to genuinely get along on a personal level and Mr. Mfume has nothing to lose by snubbing the country club Democratic leadership in Maryland.  This would help Mr. Steele win votes among black voters.  Even better, there is a small chance that Mr. Mfume could endorse Mr. Steele which would probably effectively end the race in favor of Mr. Steele.

Second, black voters may just stay home if they feel the the Democratic Party has taken them for granted again.  This is less likely now that the Lt. Gov. nominee and an Attorney General nominee are black.  Nevertheless, if Cardin goes negative it may still lead to fewer black voters casting a ballot for him.

The conundrum for Mr. Cardin is that unless he starts doing something, the momentum right now is with Mr. Mfume.  So Mr. Cardin is caught between letting the primary slip away and alienating a large part of his base for the general election.  Tough choices ahead.

Update [2006-7-17 15:27:46 by Adam C]: Here are the primary numbers, now that I found them:

Primary Election Matchup

Cardin 32

Mfume 28

Other/Undec 40

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Posted at 11:45am on Jun. 4, 2006 Jeb Bush, Nation's Best Governor

By Adam C2

It's so sad that he can't just change his last name and run.  From the Weekly Standard:

IF ONLY HIS LAST NAME WERE SMITH. He'd not only attract national attention as the popular and successful governor of a difficult-to-govern state. He'd be viewed sympathetically as a leader who had dealt with family issues--his wife's aversion to politics, his daughter's bouts with drug addiction--without losing his grip on the governorship. And he'd be the prohibitive frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

But his last name is Bush. So Jeb Bush, nearing the end of his eight years as governor of Florida, has to settle for being the best governor in America. Not proclaimed the best governor by the media and the political community. But recognized as the best by a smaller group: governors who served with him and experts and think-tank and conservative policy wonks who regard state government as something other than a machine for taxing and spending.

Why is Jeb Bush the best? It's very simple. His record is the best. No other governor, Republican or Democrat, comes close.

I agree.

In a state with a surging population, Bush has presided over a booming economy with the highest rate of job creation in the country and an unemployment rate of 3.0 percent (the national average is 4.6 percent). Florida has no state income tax, but Bush has nonetheless found a way to cut taxes every year of the eight he's been in office. Meanwhile, he's trimmed the state employment rolls by 11,000.

Economics, check.

He's the first governor to impose stringent testing and accountability on Florida elementary and secondary schools, along with three voucher programs, the most ambitious of which was struck down this year by the (liberal and majority Democratic) state supreme court. This achievement went beyond the No Child Left Behind program of his brother, President Bush, who dropped vouchers in a compromise with Democrats in 2001.

Education and pro-market solutions, check.

Bush says Florida is a "purple" state, a mixture of Republican red and Democratic blue. But when he departs Tallahassee for his hometown of Miami next January 1, he will leave Republicans in a vastly stronger position than they dreamed possible when he took office in 1999.

Loyalty to party and success at winning over swing voters, check.

Jeb Bush is a small government conservative. He was feted in Washington in 2003 by the libertarian Cato Institute and talks about having a "libertarian gene." President Bush has no such gene. He's what I call a strong government conservative and others refer to as a big government conservative. True, President Bush is closer ideologically to President Reagan than to his father, a moderate. But Jeb Bush is closer to Reagan than his brother is.

I feel like copying the whole thing, it's that good.  Read it all and realize how sad it is that the man's last name is Bush.

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Posted at 2:41am on May 23, 2006 Primary Primer: ID-01

By Adam C2

Primaries in Arkansas and Idaho take place today.  It seems most major races are set, except for ID-01's Republican primary.

There is a 6 way race for REP Otter's old seat will determine the next Congressman as this district gave President Bush 68% in 2000 and 69% in 2004.  Mr. Otter is running for GOV.   State Rep. Bill Sali has raised the most money mainly due to an endorsement by Club for Growth.  I don't know much about the other candidates, but this could be another good night for CfG.

Sali said he is particularly proud of the endorsement of a "pro-family, traditional values group" called Government is Not God, whose stated mission of keeping government from legislating issues best left to individuals and families speaks to Sali's philosophy.

"It's government's job to respect and protect the rights of the individual. That vision is centrally important to the principle put forth by the founding fathers," said Sali. "If you don't believe that, you shouldn't be in Congress."

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Posted at 6:10pm on May 16, 2006 SEN-WA: Sen. Cantwell (D) falling

By Adam C2

According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, Mr. McGavick is within 5 points of Sen. Cantwell.  This is a long run trend from a 15 point deficit to 5 points in this poll.

Date      Cantwell  McGavick

May 8    46%     41%

Apr 4     48%     40%

Mar 7     49%     36%

Feb 2     50%     36%

Jan 2     51%     36%

Nov30    51%     37%

Nov10    52%     37%

Sen. Cantwell is having a lot of problems with her anti-war base as she has not flip flopped on her support for the War in Iraq.  A couple of third party candidates could siphon off a few percentage points of votes from her and swing a tight race.  However, Mr. McGavick will still have to improve to overcome the Senator.  Nevertheless, Sen. Cantwell is quickly becoming the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this Senatorial cycle*.

*Leaving out appionted Sen. Menendez who has polled behind Mr. Kean.

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Posted at 5:29pm on May 12, 2006 True Motives on Abortion

By Adam C2

James Taranto in today's OpinionJournal has a long excerpt from Ron Weddington, one of the lawyers who successfully argued for Roe v. Wade 33 years ago.  From his letter:

I don't think you are going to go very far in reforming the country until we have a better educated, healthier, wealthier population. . . .

You can start immediately to eliminate the barely educated, unhealthy and poor segment of our country.  No, I'm not advocating some sort of mass extinction of these unfortunate people. Crime, drugs and disease are already doing that. The problem is that their numbers are not only replaced but increased by the birth of millions of babies to people who can't afford to have babies.

There, I've said it. It's what we all know is true, but we only whisper it, because as liberals who believe in individual rights, we view any program which might treat the disadvantaged differently as discriminatory, mean-shpirited and...well...so Republican. . . .

I am not proposing that you send federal agents armed with Depo-Provera dart guns to the ghetto. You should use persuasion rather than coercion. You and Hillary are a perfect example. Could either of you have gone to law school and achieved anything close to what you have if you had three or four or more children before you were 20? No! You waited until you were established and in your 30's to have one child. That is what sensible people do. . . .

Having convinced the poor that they can't get out of poverty when they have all those extra mouths to feed, you will have to provide the means to prevent the extra mouths, because abstinence doesn't work. The religious right has had 12 years to preach its message. It's time to officially recognize that people are going to have sex and what we need to do as a nation is prevent as much disease and as many poor babies as possible. . . .

There have been 30 million abortions in this country since Roe v. Wade. Think of all the poverty, crime and misery...and then add 30 million unwanted babies to the scenario. We lost a lot of ground during the Reagan-Bush religious orgy. We don't have a lot of time left. . . .

The biblical exhortation to "be fruitful and multiply" was directed toward a small tribe, surrounded by enemies. We are long past that. Our survival depends upon our developing a population where everyone contributes. We don't need more cannon fodder. We don't need more parishioners. We don't need more cheap labor. We don't need more poor babies.

The passages I've highlighted won't help dissuade those who see a concerted effort to eliminate blacks through what they call The Black Genocide.  And the idea that no one is pro-abortion also seems to hit a wall here.

On a side note, for those who still wonder why Democrats have lost the white working class vote.  It stems from thinking like this: "I don't think you are going to go very far in reforming the country until we have a better educated, healthier, wealthier population." and "We don't need more cannon fodder. We don't need more parishioners. We don't need more cheap labor."  Yes, he is asserting that soldiers, religious folk, and the working class are a big problem in America.  So what's his solution to this problen, well obviously we should have the judiciary force a very liberal abortion regime on the country so that it is possible to abort as many of these people as possible.  And then the same people ask, What's the Matter With Kansas?

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Posted at 11:40pm on May 8, 2006 MN-08: Former Sen Grams (R) is in.

By Adam C2

Former Senator Grams lost to Senator Dayton in 2000.  He has now gained the backing of the Republican activists in the 8th district.  He will be taking on entrenched Democrat Oberstar.  

First some background on the district, mainly drawing from the Almanac of American Politics 2006.  The 8th district is a generally rural district in the northeast of Minnesota known for its Iron Range.  Kerry won the district 53-46 and Gore took it 49-44.  Rep. Oberstar won 65% in 2004 which was his lowest showing since 1992.  He has been in office since 1974.  CQ still rates the race "Safe Democratic" which begs the question of why Mr. Grams threw his hat in the ring.  

Whatever the reason, it is great news for Minnesota Republicans.  Specifically, GOV Pawlenty and SEN hopeful Kennedy have a lot to gain from Mr. Grams race.  With a big name Republican running in MN-08, Republican turnout in the district will most likely improve.  Furthermore, any GOTV that Mr. Grams conducts will help in the two state wide races.  Furthermore, even if Mr. Grams loses (which is likely), he will be the frontrunner if the 72-year-old Mr. Oberstar retires soon.

Mr. Grams is "taking one for the team" in this race.  Hopefully MN Republicans will remember that in the future.

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Posted at 6:44pm on Apr. 28, 2006 MN-08: Sen. Grams making a comeback?

By Adam C2

According to the Duluth News Tribune, ex-SEN Grams (R-MN) is considering a bid for the House seat in MN-08 held by REP Oberstar.  The district voted 53-46 for Kerry and 49-44 for Gore with "other" taking 7%.

Rep. Oberstar is a fixture of the district as he has represented it since 1974.  The district has trended away from Democrats over the years and it is home to some of the farthest reaches of the Twin Cities sprawl.  This is the growing area of the district and is helping push the district away from its strong Democrat leanings.  Rep. Oberstar has won 65-69% of the vote in every election since 1994.  But there has not been a high profile challenge to the 72 year old in many years.  If ex-SEN Grams decides to throw his hat in the ring, this district might be competitive for the first time in a long while.

Former U.S. Sen. Rod Grams said Wednesday he is seriously considering a bid for the U.S. House of Representatives against Minnesota 8th District incumbent Jim Oberstar.

In a conversation with the News Tribune, Grams, a Republican, said he believes he could do more for the people of the 8th District because he would be a part of the House GOP majority.

Oberstar, a Democrat from Chisholm, is Minnesota's longest-serving member of Congress and has handily won his last four elections.

"I've been thinking about it for a couple of months," Grams said. "I haven't decided completely yet, but I'm really considering it and will make up my mind in the next week or two."

He said he expected to make a formal announcement within about 10 days.

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Posted at 12:06pm on Apr. 27, 2006 SEN-NE: Ricketts leading the primary race

By Adam C2

According to Rasmussen, Ameritrade CEO Ricketts is pulling away in the race for the Republican nomination.  He has spent a lot (in Nebraska terms) of money on raising his name recognition and he is campaigning on an anti-Washington, pro-business, platform that includes a lot of emphasis on reducing the size of government and returning to the 1994 ideals of Republicanism. The primary is May 9th.

Ricketts 52

Stenberg 26

Kramer 8

All three trail popular Senator Ben Nelson (D) in the general, although Ricketts is the closest.  This is still a second tier race because Senator Nelson never forgot his moderate and even conservative side when he arrived in the Senate unlike Sens. Cleland, Daschle, Reid, Conrad, and others.

Ben Nelson (D)     54%

Pete Ricketts (R) 36%

Ben Nelson (D) 61%

Don Stenberg (R) 26%

Ben Nelson (D) 64%

David Kramer (R) 24%

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Posted at 3:23pm on Mar. 9, 2006 SEN-WI: Does Kohl know something we don't

By Adam C2

Without a declared opponent, Senator Kohl is rolling out a $1 million TV ad blitz.

Sen. Herb Kohl (D), "who still faces no major opposition," will launch a $1M TV ad buy today. Kohl camp dir. Phil Walzak said the 2 TV ads will run for a month in every market in WI. "One will be a 60-second commercial focused on the senator's accomplishments. The other is a 30-second ad on Kohl's position on the Medicare prescription drug program." Walzak: "Senator Kohl has never run a reactive race. He's always run a proactive campaign. ... We felt it was important to share our story, to connect with voters early."

    WI GOP exec. dir. Rick Wiley said the GOP has been talking with ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) and '04 nominee/construction co. exec. Tim Michels (R) about getting into the race. Wiley: "It's in both of their courts. I anticipate we'll see some movement in the next six weeks." Wiley "said no one will be able to compete with Kohl on campaign spending." Wiley: "Some candidates get intimidated by his checkbook. You have to point out the lack of effectiveness he's had in Washington, D.C." (Frommer, AP, 3/8).

Is he nervous that ex-Sec HHS, ex-Gov Tommy Thompson (R) might run.  The latest poll including Thompson is by Strategic Vision (R):

Tommy Thompson 46%

Herb Kohl 41%

The state loves Gov. Thompson and would re-elect him GOV or put him in the SEN if he runs.  How can Republicans talk him into a Senate race?

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Posted at 9:39pm on Mar. 1, 2006 Bipartisan Abortion Bans Spread

By Adam C2

Not to be outdone by South Dakota, Mississippi Democrat Steve Holland introduced a bill to ban all abortion excepting casese when the life of the mother is at risk.  The bill has passed out of committee and is headed to the full House.  It may be amended with exceptions and it must go through the state Senate as well.  But it is another example of how one state pushing forward triggers others to follow.  And a note to Democrats, both bills were introduced by pro-life members of your party.  If only Washington D.C. had so much bipartisanship.

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Posted at 5:42pm on Feb. 27, 2006 SEN-WI: Outside chance of late Thompson entry

By Adam C2

In what could entirely turn the tables on the Senate race in Wisconsin, uber-popular ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) left the door open to a late entry into either the Senate race against incumbent Sen. Kohl (D) or the Governor race against incumbent Gov. Doyle (D).  Kohl polls better than Doyle in general, but Gov. Thompson would be a front-runner in either race if he throws his hat in.  Here is the article from today's Hotline:

"A year after leaving office" as HHS Sec., ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) "has assembled a vast portfolio of private sector pursuits, many in health care." He's "wired to three BlackBerry devices -- one links him to a law firm, one to a consulting practice and one to a La Crosse medical services and bioterror contractor, Logistics Health Inc.," where he's pres. "Friends worry that he's doing too much."

      "And while he travels steadily across" the U.S. and abroad, "he won't rule out a return to political office." He "muses about running" for GOV. "His antipathy" for Gov. Jim Doyle (D) "is plain. He condemns his performance" as "awful," spelling out the word for effect: "A-W-F-U-L." Or running for SEN ... Or even seeking the GOP pres. nomination in '08. "His closest political associates won't predict what he'll do," especially in the GOV race.

      "Thompson said he could throw his hat in the ring as late as" the 6/06 GOP convo. But that would mean turning his back on new pursuits just as he's "having a ball. The problem is, I do too much. ... I've got Deloitte, (that's) one third of my time. Akin, one third of my time. LHI, one third of my time. Speaking, one third of my time. And boards, one third of my time. Starting small businesses, one third of my time. And then I taught at Harvard." That "adds up to seven-thirds." Ex-spokesperson Kevin Keane: "You just worry that he's going to kill himself." Thompson: "I'm happy and I'm healthy, and I'm doing things that I love to do. ... I probably will slow down sometime. But not now" (Skiba, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, 2/27).

I'm not saying it's likely.  But it would move this seat from a Dem safe to a Rep lean.  If anyone is from Wisconsin, find a way to contact Mr. Thompson and tell him that your state needs his leadership in 2006 and beyond.

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Posted at 8:13pm on Feb. 25, 2006 SEN-WV: Byrd's race to lose

By Adam C2

According to the first poll since Mr. Raese's entry into the Senate race in WV, Sen. Byrd is far ahead.  No surprise.

Rasmussen: LV, 2/19/2006

Robert Byrd (D) 58

John Raese (R) 32

These are much better numbers for Byrd than he posted against Congresswoman Capito:

Byrd (D) 46

Capito (R) 43

Furthermore, Sen. Byrd's yea votes for Roberts and Alito probably reminded voters that he is no Ted Kennedy even if he is to the left of the state on many issues.  

Nevertheless, this polling supports my impression of the race.  Mr. Byrd will win if no big changes occur.  However, having Mr. Raese in the race means that if a "big change" happens there is a credible Republican on the ballot.  For example, if Mr. Byrd has a "senior moment" that is televised and it calls into question his ability to continue his duties for another 6 year then he could lose the votes of people who generally think he has done a good job in the past.

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Posted at 8:00pm on Feb. 21, 2006 Ethics Problems Bubble Up

By Adam C2

It seems that the more the Democrats try to harp on the "culture of corruption," the more it seems they find themselves with a hand in the cookie jar.  The latest example comes courtesy of the office of Representative Meeks (D-NY).  Coming on the heels of the (much more serious) Jefferson (D-LA) scandal, this may be a small issue but it's a significant one.  Hopefully the Republicans can wake up and start some meaningful ethics reforms to stop this kind of abuse.

TNR relays some information from a Republican staffer:

   The Malaysian government has a Congressional affairs operation that centers around trips to Malaysia. They take people on trips. Then they booze them and feed them and ask inappropriate questions. They often ask qusetions that you would only know the answer to if you had a clearance. One of their political counselors is clearly an intelligence officer. He never left me alone if there was information that he thought I had. And he was always happy to offer me dinner if there was.

    The trips go like this. They fly you to Malaysia business class. (not very unusual) Then they put you up in the nicest hotel in Kuala Lampur. After 3 or so days of meetings, they send you to Malacca for tourist stuff. Then back to KL and up to the Andaman hotel on Mahathir's home island. They wine you and dine you for 3 days. I had an experience that I refer to as my "Colombian Drug Cartel Decadent Dinner" for our 10 or so people. We did nothing but drink and shop and eat and go swimming and yacht for 3 days. House ethics rules require that if you have 1 day without work, the trip is unethical and you are required to return to the states at your own expense. The Malaysians refused to send the ethics filing that they are supposed to send on such trips.

    The Malaysian Caucus is chaired by Greg Meeks (D-NY) and Pete Sessions (R-TX). It was started after Khairi Omar, a political officer, was a fellow in Meeks' office for 3 months. He did Meeks's International Relations Committee work. Neither member has any particular relationship with Malaysia, but their staff went on these trips and the Malaysians had great access.

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