Figuring Out the Huckamath
By adamsweb Posted in 2008 — Comments (33) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Can Mike Huckabee stop him from getting 1191? Most say its impossible. The 819 have come in a matter of about 6-7 weeks, but John McCain may have to wait longer-a lot longer to see magic 1191.
First Thing
It should be noted that there are a lot of delegates in play. It’s also important to define the difference between unpledged and pledged delegates. Pledged delegates are required to vote for a certain candidate on the first ballot or perhaps the first several ballots. Unpledged delegates are free agents. They may come in supporting a candidate, but they can change their mind. So a candidate needs 1191 Pledged Delegates going into the convention to win the convention.
What about Mitt Romney’s delegates?
What about them? Some are under the mistaken impression that Mitt Romney’s delegates go to McCain. No, they become un-pledged delegates who can vote however they choose. In addition, as these delegates are un-pledged, they can change their minds up until the moment they cast their votes. Those who supported Romney may be more likely to listen to Romney, however in many of the states Romney won or did well in, actual delegates haven’t been selected yet, that won’t happen until the State Convention and as Romney will have dropped out, the states will send unpledged delegates to the convention.
Now, with that in mind, let’s go through the upcoming primaries with a best case scenario for Huckabee to see if there’s Huckamath to back the continued Huckabee campaign.
Feb. 19:
Wisconsin 37 delegates
Washington: 19 delegates
Now, I don’t think Camp Huckabee is so euphoric that they think they can win either state, but Huckabee could take a couple Congressional Districts in Wisconsin, which is winner take-all for the 10 at-large delegates, and then has 3 delegates (winner-take all) per Congressional district.
Washington’s delegates are unpledged and elected at the state convention. So, this puts McCain up at 850 delegates, Huckabee, 246.
American Samoa, North Marina Island, and the Virgin Islands all caucus on February 23rd, but they don’t matter, their delegates are unpledged.
Puerto Rico will caucus on February 24 and Huckabee can’t hope to win there. So McCain gets 23 delegates to go up to 873.
March 4th is the big day. McCain should take Rhode Island and Vermont easily with a combined 36 delegates. Huckabee hopes to win Texas. Assuming he wins a Majority, he’ll get all 41 at-large delegates, There are 96 delegates which are divided proportionally by Congressional district. In winning the state, Huckabee’s gets 50, Ron Paul picks up 10, and McCain the other 36. Also, let’s say Huckabee wins Ohio, with six districts going McCain’s way. Ohio, like Wisconsin is Winner Take all by Congressional District and Winner take all for the at-large delegates, so Huckabee would take 70, McCain would get 18.
So, at the end of the day, McCain’s at 963, 228 delegates shy, Huckabee’s at 407.
The next contest is Mississippi. If Huck wins Texas, he should win Mississippi , which is winner take-all at large, winner take all by Congressional district. McCain should still win a district to pick up 3 delegates, which will put him at 966, Huckabee will win the other 32 to put him at 439.
Pennsylvania on April 22 would be a nice opportunity for Huckabee to reach out to blue collar workers as well as broaden his appeal among Catholics. Unlike Michigan, which was a week after New Hampshire, Huckabee will have some time. McCain, though, would have organizational advantages, with party establishment backing. In the end, it doesn’t matter. The primary’s a beauty contest and the winner takes home nothing but bragging rights. The delegates are chosen at the State Convention and are unpledged.
So, then we move on to North Carolina on 5/6, which is a true proportional state. Huckabee wins and gets 36 delegates to McCain’s 33. Indiana also has a primary on 5/6 where it’s winner take all by Congressional District for 27 delegates, while the rest of its delegates are elected at the State Convention. Let’s say McCain carries five districts, and Huckabee carries four, so that McCain wins 15 to Huckabee’s 12. This will put McCain at 1014, Huckabee, 487.
On May 13, Nebraska holds a non-binding primary. Maybe McCain could win in the land of Hagel, but every other solidly Republican place has shut him out. It doesn’t matter, the delegates will be chosen at the state convention.
On May 16, Hawaii holds a caucus, but the delegates aren’t pledged to a particular candidate if they don’t want to be.
On May 20, Kentucky holds a primary with 27 delegates to be divvied up proportionally and another 18 to be chosen at congressional district conventions. Don’t see how Huckabee doesn’t win this one 15-12. Oregon, one of the late blue states, is a good bet for McCain. I see him winning 18-12, McCain, 1044, Huckabee, 524..
Idaho will then vote May 27, with 25 delegates divided up proportionally to everyone getting 5% or more of the vote. Let’s say Huckabee picks up 13, McCain,10 and Ron Paul 2. McCain 1054, Huckabee, 537.
South Dakota and New Mexico would round out the primary season. Huckabee would carry South Dakota easy 16-10, while McCain should get New Mexico 18-14, so at the end, it would be McCain, 1082, Huckabee 567, Ron Paul, 26.
So, what’s left? 705 delegates. Delegates formerly for Mitt or someone else, delegates elected as unpledged. Of these delegates, McCain would need to capture 147 to claim the nomination, or less than 15% of that total to be the nominee. However, would these delegates be hot to trot for McCain if he went through these type of losses in Red States? For some, it would be enough to make them take a second look at Huckabee. Would it be enough? We may not know until the first ballot.
Of course, should Huckabee lose Texas and Ohio, this scenario becomes far more unlikely, and there would have to be a re-evaluation of the campaign. Until, then it ain’t over until McCain gets hold of Magic 1191.
Source for numbers: The Republican Source
From Huckabee:
"There is a greater chance that I will dye my hair green and get tattoos all over my body and do a rock tour with Amy Winehouse than there is that I would run for the Senate," he asserted. "So let me put that one to rest."
I doubt either Hillary or Obama have been that explicit.
I think that's about the same as the odds of Obama offering Hillary the VP slot, or Hillary accepting it. And I suspect they're much better odds than Hillary offering Obama the VP slot if she's in the drivers seat.
__________________________________-
"You can't save the Earth unless you're willing to make other people sacrifice" - Scott Adams (speaking through Dogbert)
Just like he has been clear about his record?
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Huck sticks around and is nothing more than a pain in the a**. The party is divided as the socons take their ball and go home.
Obama wins 51% to 49%. After four years of of hell Mike Huckabee is the most hated man in the party and is universally blamed for President Obama.
2011 he shows us in Iowa to begin his campaign and is ran out of the state on a rail.
The Social Conservatives don't need a leader to stay home. 2 Million stayed home in 2000 according to Karl Rove. Any bet on how many will stay home? I say 5 million easy.
And of course, before the primary, there were all these thousands people saying they would never support McCain, but oops we nominated him. But it's all Huckabee's fault.
The fact is that if Huckabee drops out tomorrow, most of the people hating him now will hate him in 2012. I love how because it's a time of war, we don't have time for actual elections.
You keep pointing at these long shots of Huck winning or forcing a brokered convention.
The longer he stays in the bigger chance he has of being tagged with the blame. He is going to lose more than he will win and people are going to tire of him real soon. There is no upside for him.
As I never want him within shouting distance of POTUS I hope he damages himself beyond repair.
Like it or not the longer he stays in the more chance he takes of being blamed for a McCain loss especially if it's close. He does it at his own peril.
stay home in 2000? Bush has been a solid socon and McCain should be okay. If 5 million are sitting it out until we nominate a pastor well then what is there to say?
Has Bush been so bad that they have felt left out for eight years?
And here he is, "Mr. Embryonic Stem Cell Research" will be less so. And at this point, Huckabee staying in the race may be staving off a third party emerging.
If GWB was not a good enough socon for you then McCain won't be either.
You can sit this one out because your pro-life liberal didn't win. Maybe 8/16 years of a pro-abortion liberal with a majority congress will bring you around.
Who would the third party candidate be that Huck puts the fear into.
I voted for Bush in 2000 General, and 2004 Primary and General. It wasn't me, but I know the future by the past and the Evangelical base is not excited and not motivated.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
I love how because it's a time of war, we don't have time for actual elections.
Because it's a time of war, we must nominate someone that can manage it effectively. Thia doesn't even get into all the other areas Huckabee would be a problem.
The simple fact is, Republican voters don't want Huckabee as the nominee. If we did, he'd be leading in votes and delegates.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
But it was close enough that any one of a dozen factors might have been enough to tip the balance. And If Richard Nixon had been in the midst of a criminal trial in 1976, I think Ford would have lost by a far bigger margin.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
"And If Richard Nixon had been in the midst of a criminal trial in 1976, I think Ford would have lost by a far bigger margin."
Maybe, maybe not. Ultimately the pardon hurt Ford because it looked like it was part of some corrupt back room deal. If Ford came out and took a very strong rule of law position (no one is above the law, punish the guilty etc.) position he would have been in a stronger position in 1976.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
But there is a clear risk that it would have made it worse. There really was no good outcome to that decision.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
Returns to Hope Arkansas to run for dog catcher and loses in a landslide.
Romney defeats Obama in 2012.
McCain needs 44% of the remaining delegates to be arithmetically certain of victory. Huckabee needs (by my calculations) 119%. I have seen the figure of 123% quoted elsewhere. The figures are, as you will know a little vague at the edges.
So, if Huckabee massively outperforms his record so far and gets 60% of the remaining delegates it will not be an arithmetical certainty that he is going down. His chance of winning will be greater than zero. But not by much.
If McCain has 1,000 pledged delegates to Huck's 400 he is going to win, and big, on the first ballot. People will be jumping on board with the winner. If he has a 2:1 lead in pledged delegates expect him to get 4:1 at least among the rest.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
I just went through all the delegates. There are a lot of uncommitted delegates out there, I've estimated 700 at the end.
I think you're underestimating dislike for McCain and how mad a lot of Conservatives are. This man only won 3 states with 50% of the vote before Super Tuesday and I think a lot of us in Red States are going to surprise some people. McCain's still the frontrunner, never said he wasn't, but if Huckabee pulls this off, this isn't the last you've heard of him, particularly in the GOP's turn-based politics.
You are counting as "uncommitted" anyone elected under a primary system that does not formally bind delegates. This distinction is of some academic interest. If John McCain were to be found in bed with a dead woman - I'm not sure live boy does it for most people any more - then some would still be obliged to vote for him and others would not.
But your hopes depend here on persuading McCain supporters, carefully selected by the McCain campaign and elected on a ticket of supporting McCain deciding to vote for Huckabee. Good luck with that.
Absent any McCain supporters voting for him, Huckabee needs 60% of the remaining delegates plus all of the Romney supporters just to deny McCain arithmetical certainty.
To win, Huckbee need 119% of the remaining elected delegates. Granted that is not impossible, since all of the Romney voters could switch over to him. However, we know perfectly well this is not going to happen.
Absent any major scandal or the candidate's death, McCain is going to win on the first ballot by more than two to one. Huckabee's chances are not zero, but they are so close to zero as makes no odds. Stick to John Cox. His chances of winning are very, very, similar to Huckabee's.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
He's just too arrogant to accept that he has been recognized as the charlatan he is, and subsequently rejected by the vast majority of Republicans.
The Iowans who voted for this hypocrite should be ashamed of themselves for allowing Huckster to use their state as a springboard to his now doomed and futile campaign.
car at the fair when the ride was over...
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
Even in the best case scenario which you cite. I think McCain get's over the top in a brokered convention. In other words if it comes to that I think get gets that 15% he needs.
Recommended though for demonstrating how the longshot could happen.
So basically, your entire 'math' relies on Hucakbee winning the big draw in Texas, a state where he is polling behind McCain.
I guess it could happen but I wouldn't want to put money on it (of course if you have any actual confidence or your little dreams I'd reccomend you do put money on it - on Intrade you would be looking at a 6:1 payout. Of course if you are just a blowhard here who deosn't really believe what you say...)
I tend not to take this commenter seriously, and won't until he withdraws his endorsement of John Cox. giggle
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
John Cox is not going to be on any more state's ballots and now that he's not going to be on any more ballots I've endorsed Huckabee., but I have no regrets in endorsing him. I stand for principle.
But given that Huckabee closed a 32 point gap in Virginia to 9 and apathy among McCain's reluctant supporters, I put nothing past the man.
As for the dare, what do you think this is? Back to the Future.
Huckabee most run for Seante
He could raise a lot money in no time for the run and its shown he was very popular in South so many people in Arkansas may respect that and I would respect him if he took plunge