Arkieheartland's blog
Posted at 2:05pm on Jan. 17, 2008 The Republican Primary BCS Poll
By Arkieheartland
For all those whose love of politics is only rivaled by their love of sport the following suggestion for what is turning out to be the political equivalent to this year’s BCS rollercoaster.
Conference or Non-Conference? Does the candidate’s intrinsic strengths lead to the perception that they must do well? If yes – it’s a Conference game; if not – it’s non-Conference.
Here’s the Score Board:
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Posted at 12:50pm on Jan. 15, 2008 Now Showing at the Primary Multi-Plex 12 Near You!
By Arkieheartland
Now Showing at the Primary Multi-Plex 12 Near You!
Soon America will choose between the marquee of candidates and their themes. Here’s two takes on each of our potential choices and their themes.
Screen One and Two
Staring: John McCain: -
Braveheart
(Fiercely independent warrior unifies feuding clans against a common foe)
The Cain Mutiny
(Mentally disturbed Captain provokes his officers to mutiny)
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Posted at 1:46am on Oct. 31, 2005 Peaceful Protest Turns Violent
By Arkieheartland
Here is a wonderful seamless example of Politically Correct BBC reporting on Muslim immigrant rioting outside Paris this weekend:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4389920.stm
Of special interests notice this passage:
"Saturday saw hundreds of mourners pay homage to the teenagers by holding a peaceful procession in the suburb.
The march was led by the families of the dead boys
Marchers observed several minutes' silence and laid flowers a few metres from the spot where Ziad, aged 17, and Banou, 15, died.
The violence on Saturday night was significantly less than on the two preceding nights, police said."
Note the "peaceful procession" followed two nights of rioting and did not prevent a third.
The BBC is a world leader in "understanding" immigrant anger. Together with Reuters, they never miss an opportunity to minimalize and obfuscate the sources of violence emanating from within Europe's Muslim immigrant community. Their objective neutrality is symptomatic of Europe's post-modern moral decline.
To borrow a great quote, "I refuse to remain impartial when deciding between the firefighter and the fire."
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Posted at 3:27am on Oct. 18, 2005 Don't Know Much About History
By Arkieheartland
George Will has another fine example of his lifelong effort to give Americans a better
since of their own valuable history and the limits of its application in Iraq.
http://realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-10_18_05_GW.html
Will effectively chastises the administration for underestimating the challenge transformation in Iraq would entail.
Will's column actually underscores our compulsion to shove any number of current events into whatever historic frame we personally possess. Since few Americans know much history, beyond what they have consciously lived through, the "historic fit" rarely illuminates and often distorts the image.
Because the average American's knowledge of history is really just a lifetime of current events, they are usually forced to choose from a very small collection of historic examples.
The United States has had only three major military deployments in most citizen's living memory: Vietnam (thought of as an un-winnable failure, quagmire); Gulf War I (thought of as a near bloodless blitz); and Gulf War II (really the reconstruction of Iraq which remains unsettled it is therefore the focus of our "historic" comparisons.
Current observers of our war in Iraq (especially on the left and the MSM) now look to Vietnam as their only frame of reference. They originally possessed two examples, but as soon as the casualties and duration of Gulf War II exceeded that of Gulf War I their limited collection of historic references permitted only one conclusion.
To wit: Iraq is Vietnam. Thus the ghoulish trumpeting of casualty statistics which are seen as conclusive evidence of failure (the more bodies the less like Gulf War I the more Vietnam/quagmire).
There are many other examples from the history of insurgent warfare and political reconstruction (including from our own history) that might better apply to the situation in Iraq but they have little resonance in today's debate.
Just one example from U.S. history is a brief timeline of the Philippine.
1899- Spain Cedes the Philippine to the U.S.
Emilo Aquinaldo leads insurrection against U.S. occupation
1901- Aquinaldo captured; William Howard Taft made U.S. governor of the Phillipines begins building transitional government.
1902- insurrection ends (though some regions lay outside effective governmental control) Taft improves economic conditions, settles disputes over church ownership of land, establishes pensionado program, allowing Filipinos to study in U.S., which helped modernize and westernize the country.
1916- U.S. government passes Jones Law establishing elected Filipino legislature with house and senate
1934- U.S. approves Tydings-McDuffie Act promising Philippine independence in 1946; transition to independence begins
1935- Filipino people approve constitution creating Commonwealth of the Philippines with Manuel Quezon y Molina as president
1941- Japan invades and defeats U.S. Filipino forces under McArthur's command
1944- Mac Returns
1945- Manila liberated after bloody Japanese urban defense
1946- Philippines becomes independent nation; Manuel Roxas y Acuña elected first president
(the above motified from:http://www.infoplease.com/spot/philippinestime1.html)
Of Course this only began the Philippines lurching struggle towards functional democracy.
I an NOT saying the Philipines is the pattern for Iraq's future.
Iraq's history will find and set it's own course, but there are many more examples from history, other than Vietnam, that might inform us of likely and less than likely courses and durations.
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Posted at 11:34pm on Oct. 14, 2005 The Al Queada Quagmire
By Arkieheartland
Saturday October 15, 2005 is indeed a red letter day in Iraqi history and the history of Al Queada. The MSM lead with Rove or Asian Flu speculation but we know Saturday is a day of moment in Iraq and what is increasingly the Islamic war on Islamic terror.
The Radical Jihadist have staked everything on running the U.S. out of Iraq in the same manner that they ran out the U.N. - by orchestrated horror. But their extremism appears to have driven more Iraqis into the transitional government thereby weakening both their cause and their insurgent bedfellows. By staking so they risk entrapment within Iraq and catostrophic defeat.
As the Iraqi military and political structures mature, Al Queada is increasingly contending not with the American Satan but fellow Arab "heretics." This "Iraqification" of the fight against the insurgency generally has increasingly become the "Iraqification" of the "War on Terror."
It is not merely that the central front has formed in Iraq, but much more importantly, it is the fact that Iraqis are and will increasingly become the most effective weapon in destroying Al Queada and discrediting its ideology. The Iraqis are very unlikely to lose a struggle in which no more than 15% of the population is likely to provide safe haven for the terrorists.
America's primary purpose will shift from hunting down the terrorists and insurgents to keeping Syria and Iran from interfering with the destruction of Al Queada at the hands of the Iraqis. We have already begun to witness this transition.
The Bathist waiting and striking from the wings in Syria have failed, thus far, to inspire any Saddam nostalgia and their rat lines into the country have been seriously interdicted. Internal disarray within the Syrian government over their failing grip on Lebanon further weakens their ability to alter the conditions on the ground in Iraq.
Iran has thus far played a shrewder game and our strategy may be shrewder still. It relies on the traditional nationalism of Iraqi Sunnis to ultimately trump Iranian ambitions.
Iran, with its dream of Persian (Iranian expansion really has more to do with ethnicity than sectarianism) dominance of the Islamic world may still get its satellite in a Shiite Iraq but I doubt it. Once free from the threat of a violent Sunni restoration, the Iranians will find that there fellow Shiites in Iraq are quite nationalistic.
So Saturday will be a great day in the history of Iraq and the War on Terror. Sadly, people will die. But: The vote will happen. The government and democratic systems will strengthen (even if this draft is rejected which is unlikely). The insurgency will weaken. And Al Queada will be hoist on its on petard.
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Posted at 1:39am on Oct. 13, 2005 Hamiltonians vs. Jacksonians
By Arkieheartland
Let me try to recast the basis of this divide.
Leon and others have a very understandable objection to Miers' credentials or promise as a champion. For this they have been called "elitist."
Might I suggest they are Hamiltonians - believing in a professional governmental leadership of the most capable individuals. These governmental leaders should furthermore be of or well aware of the centers of learning, commerce, industry over which they are appointed. This is a legit and defensible position with a rich history (Federalist, Whig, Half-breed) in American politics.
Hamiltonians also tend to be what they prefer in their leaders.
But Bush has made a very Jacksonian choice. This is also unsurprising.
Bush has never been impressed by the cleverest person in the room at least since his days at Yale. He believes wisdom and intelligence are distinct attributes which do not track together. That "C" students can, and do, execute their duties as well or better than the "greatest minds."
Miers is George Bush's kind of great thinker and judge. He values her stability, loyalty (a very Jacksonian trait), personal integrity, humility and, commonness. Bush's choice of Miers also reflects a rich and honor strain of American political thought. Jacksonians believed that if the Constitution enshrines "We the People" as capable of self-government than average citizens should have the right to be in that government.
Jacksonians also tend to be what they prefer in their leaders.
None of this is intended to reargue the merits of the Jacksonian or Hamiltonian positions but to explain why Leon doesn't get an answer to his satisfaction. He values a very different set of criteria than many of those who support the nominee.
The Republicans have been split this way before. Most notably between Jacksonian Stalwarts and Hamiltonian Half-breeds in 1880. The question that concerns me is will the Half-breeds this time kill a Stalwart President? And who will carry the Bulldog revolver?
Make no mistake. You can not kill this nominee (even at her own hand) without deeply wounding or killing this presidency.
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Posted at 1:19am on Oct. 12, 2005 Phase One is History
By Arkieheartland
Phase One is over.
The shock and awe failed. Miers survived her violent birth on the scene. She will go before the Senate and George Bush will never withdraw her nomination. Those who think they can talk or pressure George into a withdrawal are fooling themselves.
Dobson et. al. have clearly acted as a firewall preventing the grass roots of the party from catching fire in spite of the best (and sincere) efforts of Kristol, Will, Krauthammer and the "happy lens" of MSM to whip up a firestorm.
Phase Two has begun - The siege
Now the sapper will mine and counter mine from now till the hearings looking for advantage or simply trying to wrest the initiative for what will follow.
Phase Three - Assault
By the time the hearings arrive Miers will no longer be acceptable to the left. Too many evangelicals will have spoken in her defense. Too many backchannel assurances will have been put forward to the base to allow the Dems to whistle in the graveyard any longer. At that point "everyman will be expected to do his duty." I'm sure the left will fight without mercy and hope the rally effect on the right will save the nominee (and the final three years of this presidency).
Now we wait for the umpire of history.
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Posted at 2:06am on Oct. 10, 2005 You Shall Know the Truth...
By Arkieheartland
Wow! I go away for a weekend with the wife and kids to Branson and return to find I've slandered evangelicals. I may also now be a mason but I'm not sure.
Gamecock, realizing that most of your comments were in response to Alek, I'd like to allay any notion that the attitude I see reflected by some conservative critics of Miers (seeing her as evangelical thus anti-intellectual/snake handler)is in any way my position. My post did not own that argument (check it). But many on the left see us (I'm a PhD at a conservative evangelical University) as "unreasoning" because we do not ellevate Athenian wisdom "based on the wisdom of this world" above the wisdom of God.
It is, however, true that American Evangelicalism/Fundamentalism historically possessed a greater degree of caution about the value of "book learnin" vs. "Book learning." Evangelicals, especially after the Second Great Awakening, took special pride in their belief in God's "calling" as sufficient education for clergy. This rejection of the need for Seminary instruction or clericalism is still present in the "priesthood of all believers" doctine. It also produced, for some, a low valuation or skepticism of eduction generally.
When these movements began to build colleges (some for the first time, others to challenge earlier Christian schools they feared had become too worldly) in the late 19th and early 20th century, they took pains to ensure the primacy of sacred thought over secular. They saw that great schools, like Harvard and Yale, where reason had been the handmaiden of faith in the founding decades had seen faith driven from her rightful place. Even more obscenely they saw the emergence of the secular dogma that reason and faith are in opposition (Which, like Paul, I completely reject).
My post theorized that the Fundamentalist vs. Modernist divide so clearly present between Main-Line and Evangelical Christian movements, so clearly mirrored in the alignment of these groups with the Repubs and Dems of today, might also be present WITHIN the Republican coalition. Most of the notable opposition which emerged in the first 72 hours came from voices outside the evangelical movement (Kristol, Frum, Will, Krauthammer). This may be nothing. It may be a sign that Fundamentalists continue to be viewed as the mud-sill population by some conservatives. I hope this clarifies my position. Meanwhile "by the level, by the square." Good hunting.
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Posted at 1:49pm on Oct. 7, 2005 What Does Jerusalem Have to do With Athens?
By Arkieheartland
While there are many cross-currents jeopardizing this nomination, I too believe that religion is the most is the most dangerous for two reasons.
Miers' evangelical background is distrusted among multiple constituencies in this fight. Fear of jihadist Christians establishing sharia law is a foundational myth among the modern left. But there also exist a nervousness among secular, Catholic and mainline Protestants of the right. Much of their fear stems from how evangelicals have come down in the long running debate over the value on non-Christian sources of wisdom or authority.
The answer to early Church father Tertillian's question, "what does Jerusalem (the Judeo-Christian well-spring of wisdom and knowledge) have to do with Athens (the secular well-spring of wisdom and knowledge)?" continues to divide. American Evangelicals have generally sided with Tertillian that Athens is to be avoided entirely or treated with great skepticism. Because of this they are often viewed as non-intellectual, anti-intellectual or plain old ignorant by those who place some confidence or great stock in Athens.
Evangelical's reluctance to enshrine Athenian "reason" above or equal to Jerusalem's "revelation" is often seen, and caricatured, as an unreasoning superstitious rejection of logic itself. It is no surprise to me that those most convinced of the value of Athens (I am NOT saying that these folks aren't Christians or Godly), with backgrounds in the elite academe, are the fiercest critics of this nomination from within the Republican coalition.
But just wait till the left realizies what this woman's religious affiliation suggests about her view of the best sources of wisdom and knowledge.
Valley View's web-site has a profession of faith fundamentals that would make Lyman and Milton Stewart proud. In addition to inerrancy of scripture as the sole authority in matters of faith and doctrine (no German theology need apply), Christ-only salvation, heaven-hell, and the necessity of adult immersion, they also practice a male-only congregational leadership model. Just wait till that shoe drops.
This doesn't ensure that she will approach the Constitution the way Valley View approaches scripture, but you can rest assured the secular left will be terrified at the probability. No living document, no outside sources of wisdom, authority or illumination, only a restoration plea to "speak where it speaks and remain silent where it is silent." Such philistine, narrow-minded, ultra-orthodoxy is the sum of all the left's fears and, sadly, some on the right.
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Posted at 1:34am on Oct. 7, 2005 The 72 Hour Rule?
By Arkieheartland
As a long time observor of political debate and head-on collisions, I've noticed that the first 72 hours are critical to survival. If the trama doesn't kill the affected occupants in the first three days they nealy always survive. It looks like Miers is going to make it through her unexpectant violent impact with the new media right. It remains to be seen if she hits (or perhaps is thrown into) anything else in the hearings. The Dems are clearly observing the first rule of politics and waiting to see if she dies from the first collision. Has anyone else noticed this 72 hour phenom?
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