Dirty Little Secret: Obama NEEDS Twice As Much Money As McCain to Beat Him, And He Won't Have It
By Bill Dupray Posted in 2008 — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Maybe the cheeseball Great Seal of Barack was an attempt to boost fundraising, because Obama barely beat the lowly John McCain in the May numbers.
Obama had his weakest fundraising month of the year, collecting $22 million and ending the month with $43 million cash on hand and $304,000 in debts. But $10 million of his available cash can only be spent in the fall after the party national conventions, leaving $33 million for the summer months. Obama's decision to bypass the general election's public finance system allows him to use left over primary money in the fall campaign.
Republican John McCain, who secured his party's nomination in March, raised $21 million in May and had $31.6 million in the bank. The figures place him virtually on same financial footing as Obama — a level of parity that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago.
The RNC has also been saving its pennies and is crushing the DNC.
The Republican National Committee, however, ended June with 13 times more money in the bank than the Democratic National Committee. The RNC had $53 million cash on hand to the DNC's $4 million. Both parties are allowed to assist their presidential candidates with coordinated campaigns.
From Open Secrets via Politically Drunk, it seems that McCain is trending up.
On a day-to-day basis, however, McCain is crossing the finish line first more often, at least among larger donors--in April he outraised Obama on 15 days among individuals giving more than $200, compared to only six in January, two in February and nine in March.
While it certainly would be no surprise if Obama's fundraising juggernaut picked up again, one wonders why he had a low month.
Also, though cash is king in politics, Obama outspent Hillary 3:1 in Pennsylvania, and lost by 10. He outspent her 2:1 on ads in Ohio, and lost. Indeed, Obama outspent Hillary, $75 million to $46 million in the Democrat primaries and the nomination fight was essentially a tie.
Obama is not selling an objectively good product. He is spending millions trying to convince the Eskimos they really need his ice. By the fall, maybe we will see that it is really not ice at all, but millions of jars of snake oil.
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Obama was avoiding debating Hillary because he knew that the more he talks about his vision for America, the less people feel confident. Especially people who want specifics, not platitudes. ("Hope!" "Change!" "Yes We Can!")
Also, Obama got smoked in most of the primaries. He did better in caucus states. Too bad for Obama that the presidential election will be decided by voters who get to vote by secret ballot. Voters in the general election will do the same thing to Obama that the Democrats in Texas did to him: vote for his opponent.
It's not that he's black, it's that he has ZERO experience in leadership and he hasn't even finished his first term as a senator. As John Edwards and Dick Cheney have both pointed out, B.H.O. has spent less than 24 of his 41 months as a senator doing what senators are paid to do. The rest of the time he's been going to fund-raisers and spouting platitudes.
Proudly supporting John S. McCain for President (McCain/Romney?)
Obama was just giving stimulus checks to the television networks. He's all about the economy. :D
$4 million for the DNC? That's absolutely pathetic. Have they even gotten that missing $15 mill for Denver yet?
On both sides, you have to look at the whole picture.
The reason the DNC's numbers are pathetic is because most of the Money-Left is going into, variously, either Obama's campaign, the DCCC, the DSCC, and/or the various 527s. There's nothing left over for the DNC.
On the GOP side, the money is overwhelmingly going into the RNC and McCain's campaign, and relatively (much) less to the NRCC, the NRSC, or right-leaning 527s.
but the point is also he has to win on image via advertising (when he wins at all) versus substance.
The GOP has actually outraised the Democrats this cycle - the numbers look like they're including McCain and Obama - and that 20 million lead of cash on hand does not take into account the money that the DNC needs to raise to have a convention. Quickly. And let's not even bring up Clinton's debt, which is her first fund-raising priority.
Bottom line is, Obama had better have that one heck of a June that his people were saying that he's going to have, because he's going to have to carry the DNC - and if they can't match the McCain/RNC totals, they'll be able to use their surplus to bail out the NRSC and NRCC.
Moe Lane
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
The point I was making is that just looking at the DNC vs. the RNC is slicing the pie too small.
The more useful metrics are probably DCCC/DSCC vs. NRCC/NRSC, DNC/Obama vs. RNC/McCain, and All Dem vs. All GOP.
Personally, from this point on, it wouldn't surprise me if All GOP outraises All Dem (that's the usual pattern), though it's very likely that DCCC/DSCC will hammer RNCC/RNSC, which is the usual pattern for the Party In-power vs. the Party Out-of-power.
Are suffering. Our local Cong Candidate wants nothing to do with them and the 18% Congress approval rating, while Dole is running against a nobody, so to speak.
As for the right-wing 527s, wait for the Heller decision. Either way, we'll see the NRA & GOA swing into action.
I'm no Nostradamus, but, IMHO, Operation Chaos has given BO an unusual early bump in support. I'd be surprised if he got the normal increase through the Convention, and amazed if it were not downhill from there.
leftism much earlier this cycle. Average inattentive voters usually don't get attentive till October.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
The Club for Growth’s fundraising is way up this year.
http://gopconvention.thehill.com/content/view/239/
Please sign Newt's Drilling Petition. I have included a link to it in the below. Thank you.
I've said for some time that Obama's fundraising juggernaut is not likely to give him a great advantage in the general election. See here.
The two candidates began June roughly even - McCain had $31.6 million on hand, and Obama had $33 million on hand, not counting about $10 million he has raised for the general election. So the on hand figures, plus what they raise before being formall nominated at the convention, has to last until the conventions. That's a slight edge for Obama but nothing special.
In my prior calculations, I noted that Obama probably has to raise about $115 million for the general election just to be effectively even with what McCain will get for sucking off the government teat - one earmark that McCain apparently likes.
Obama raised about $27 million in May, including $5 million for the general election. Obama raised just over $30 million in April. He raised $42 million in March, $56 million in February, and $35 million in January. In sum, his trend has been down since February.
He's got some major fundraisers planned now, though, and with Clinton out of the race, expect him to have a very good fundraising month in June.
The question remains, can he raise enough money to cover his "primary" campaign between now and the late August convention, and also raise enough money for the general election to outspend McCain? I remain skeptical. He'll probably outspend McCain over the summer, and maybe over the general, but the idea raised by some Democratic strategists, such as Joe Trippi, that Obama will raise $500 million for the general election is just silly. His spending margins will not be too significant.
The Republicans' big problem is not the presidential - it is in congressional races, and in independent spending by "527s," where they will be playing catch up. Republicans need to start funding the National Republican Congressional Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committees to make sure Democrats don't pile up overwhelming numbers in Congress.
Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website
There's too much water under the bridge with these two for party activists to start giving money to them. I guess they can target the big donors, but I don't get the feeling that rank-and-file Republicans are too enamored with these two groups right now, so I wouldn't expect a big flow of money to them until the Congressional leadership in Washington stops... er, [messing up].
A better bet (and something Redstate is good at) is getting individual donors and party activists to donate money to promising GOP candidates individually, rather than through the currently-discredited NRCC & NRSC.
Oddly enough it was the immigration reform imbroglio that soured the rank and file on them.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Don't attempt to make Obama to be better than he is. Please?
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
All the money in world won't help him after McCain works him over.
Have you added to the population of the McCain 2008 minicity yet today?
I drive a hydrogen powered car - C8H18 to be exact.