Huckabee's rise - the Tavis factor
By blackrepublican Posted in Archived — Comments (40) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I'm going to propose a theory here that I'm sure those with better data and contacts than I have will be able to confirm or refute. However, when I think about Huckabee's recent surge in the polls; I can't help but think about the Tavis Smiley debate. Why? Because all four leading presidential hopefuls effectively ceded the stage to the "unknowns;" and in this forum, Huckabee shined.
Huckabee had the best soundbites, presence, and resonance with the audience and made his other colleagues at the debate look uncomfortable by contrast. I think the combination of no frontrunners, national exposure, and efficiently used airtime spotligted Huckabee's communication skills and increased his name ID, which he has capitalized on since. In other words, his debate performance at the PBS forum served as a bridge from his Ames Straw Poll surprise showing to his most recent gain in momentum. It seems like Huckabee has implicitly tied his appearance into his overall narrative as well (http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/269696.aspx).
Anecdotally, I've also noticed interest, if not outright support among the black Republicans I know (since the Tavis Smiley debate) because he is seen as someone that could actually peel off a larger percentage of the black vote (similar to his 20-48% share of the black vote in 1998 AR gubernatorial race - depending on who you ask - http://www.swtimes.com/articles/2007/09/27/news/news03.txt). And there is the perception that he would be harder to demonize in a general election in the AA community than Giuliani or Romney.
I'm not sure any of this is convincing enough for me to support him; but as a political junkie, I find it interesting. Before I get attacked by the various candidate bots, I should say that I am passionately undecided and while I've been impressed by Huckabee's rise, I have my doubts about his fiscal conservatism. But then again, I have doubts (in varying magnitudes) about all the candidates. Sigh.
I don't know if he can or not. However, the way things are going, I'm pretty sure there will be a Democratic president anyways. Pardon my cynical rundown of the leading candidates. Rudy has too much baggage and angers some of the base all of the time. Romney has too many positions and has disagreed with all of the base at some point in time. Thompson has never caught fire though he probably appeals to the most part of the base if he'd put in the time. McCain is too old and angers all of the base some of the time. Huckabee is slicker than snot but is distrusted by half the base for all time. So, frankly I'm depressed about the choices and will ultimately vote for whoever revolts me the least.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
You have to speak to everyone. I think Huckabee made the right decision to go to Mr. Smiley's debate, as I think he made the right decision when he was the only Republican to speak to the NEA (and later picked up the endorsement of the New Hampshire chapter for the primary) and when he was the only Republican to speak to a union group (the IAM, who endorsed him for the GOP primary as well).
I don't think that debate catapulted him. But it sent the right signal to people like me who thought that the front-runners' snub of the debate said something very negative about their commitment to seek out more non-white voters. It probably cemented my support for him.
Good observations.
However, if Obama wins the Dem nomination, it will minimize Huck's ability to win over much of the black vote, IMO. Huck could win over more moderates, though, not because of race but because Obama is more liberal than Hillary.
Net effect: a wash or slight Huck gain.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
No, you're right. Though it's possible Huckabee could be christed the second black President just for being from Arkansas and playing bass (close enough to sax). In which case, who knows how the race would turn out. (End snark.)
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
...to be considered a "Black President", there are qualifications that Huckabee may not be able to fill.
There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa
LOL. Sometimes words just won't suffice.
P.S. I love your tagline.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
the one thing that upset me the most was that a lot of left wing press pointed out that the front runners skipped the Travis Smiley debate but did not point out the front runners also missed the Values Voters Debate. I think Mike Huckabee did stand out at the Travis Smiley debate and the Values Voters debate, actually, he's stood out at every debate.
They did skip the Value Voters debate but they had already appeared at other forums that targeted their base. What caused the media circus is that they skipped every forum and debate (NAACP, National Urban League, etc) geared towards minority voters. Heck, even Hillary and Obama were smart enough to show up at Rick Warren's church to try to reach an audience not part of their base, even though it's primary season on their side as well. It was just a dumb, unforced error on the part of the leading candidates and gave an opening to a slick communicator like Huckabee.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
so he had a big reason to show up at the Value Voters debate. The left wing press should have at least pointed out that Rudy missed both the Values Voters debate and the Tavis Smiley debate. Did the other Republican candidates show up at the NAACP and National Urban League debates? did they even have debates for Republicans?
Good point about Rudy and the Value Voters debate. I went back and looked for some more info. Apparently, the NAACP and National Urban League sent out invitations to speak at their conventions which all the candidates turned down. Only Tancredo agreed to speak at the NAACP convention and discussed illegal immigration's impact on AA. Skipping the PBS debate after skipping two invitations to speak (unfiltered) to predominantly minority audiences created a meme that the MSM was only to happy to run with.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
....is that he is speaking to what's going on in the pocketbooks of Middle Class Voters.
The Club For Growth doesn't get this. They should sit down with Mike instead of automatically attacking him.
Look, I've seen Huck attack as a tax-raising fraudster. I'm an FDT guy, as I think that Fred is the authentic conservative in the race, not a flipper like Mitt.
But I can see Huck's attraction to base voters: he does what no conservative has been able to do since Reagan left town-talk to the Middle Class in ways that doesn't condescend to them. Remember, Middle Class voters want things done for them, and see government as an ally, not just an enemy. They want to see government made a more efficient servant, not a leaner, more distant master.
Republicans still don't get how Bush was perceived to have lost his credibility after Katrina. Look at the polling. There's a sharp dropoff after that. Middle Class people want government to work, but they don't want it to cost too much. The problem with the Middle Class is that they sometimes don't get the contradiction.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
It showed exactly how pathetic the big government helps you idea is.
1. Just how rapidly do you expect a response from an entity two thousand miles away ?
2. If a storm is coming and you don't get out of the way just what do you expect to happen ?
3. If you can't process one and two, just who do you think is going to be the servant and who the master in the you and government relationship ?
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
This is part of the danger in attacking Huckabee (in a traditional way) because I will bet he comes back with some spin about how the Wall Street elites (i.e. Club for Growth or any presidential rival who attacks him) are attacking him for speaking up for the average Joe/Main Street/middle class/evangelical voter.
I could see Huckabee try to turn Romney's strength as a former CEO into a disadvantage by painting him as an out-of-touch elitist, if Mitt goes after Mike too hard.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
e does what no conservative has been able to do since Reagan left town-talk to the Middle Class in ways that doesn't condescend to them. Remember, Middle Class voters want things done for them, and see government as an ally, not just an enemy.
Reagan wasn't about appealing to idea that the government is your friend and exists to help you out and to punish from those rich fat cats on Wall Street. He wasn't about a zero-sum game between "Wall Street" and "Main Street." He wasn't about feeding the government.
But hey, maybe I'm not remembering it right and he really was a big government compassionate conservative. You got some quotes from 1980 where he's selling government as the solution to all your problems?
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Yep, Mr. "9-scariest-words" was a big believer in "Government Fixes Things", eh?
Actually, I seem to recall he was a pretty obvious believer in the maxim that "Government Sucks at Fixing Things" - but perhaps we're talking about a different Ronald Reagan.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
i also think many people see a genuiness there - like it or not. (whether its true or not)
I just wish Fred would do something to shake up the race.. after this weekend my vote for him is solidified.
Govenor Huckabee took it upon himself to help organize a place to stay for close to 60,000 people after the storm. He did so by tapping into what some people are critizing him for. You know being a Christian. He used is contacts in Arkansas with the different youth camp organizations from when he was a pastor to reopen the summer camps that had just recently closed. He did so without the Fedral Governments assistance because he knew what was right and what had to be done. Do you think that could have had an influence on why Lousiana just elected a Republican as it's new Governor. Because they saw Man of Action and not a man of words. All I can say is Governor Huckabee is in touch with the average American as Section9 has suggested.
a reaction to an emergency situation is exactly the sort of thing government should be doing. An ongoing handout program is not.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
What African American really cares if Huckabee showed up give a quick pat on the back! All races have the same core needs and desires in a candidate. Someone who will be fair, honest, and stand tall for the issues the voter cares about. Any African American conservative will look at Hucks record and scream hypocrite. His record and past actions contradict every stance he claims to make now. African Americans are not dumb. They can see straight thorough the pandering.
I don't think all those black voters he got in Arkansas were conservative. I think he reached out and changed hearts and minds. As far as pandering, is it pandering by showing up? You're not gonna get many converts in church if you never invite anyone else in. The GOP's inept outreach to minority groups sicken me. At least Huck makes a effort and if more conservatives were like Huck we wouldn't be in the minority.
Thank you. Showing up is not pandering. It's called communicating. How you communicate could be pandering, but the idea that Republicans are pandering by having a conversation about conservative principles before a non-white audience is ridiculous. So is expecting 35 million Americans to have a road to Damascus conversion to the Republican party each election cycle without bothering to show up at non-traditional forums once given the opportunity.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
What do you call it when you have a black preacher friend as part of your outreach and that friend decided to ask to get some killers and other felons freed and you comply.
"_A pastor who promoted Huckabee among blacks urged the governor to grant clemency to John Henry Claiborne, who was sentenced to 100 years for a 1994 armed robbery, according to a 2004 report in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Huckabee made Claiborne eligible for parole after receiving a letter from the Rev. Charles Williams, who told the newspaper he had helped win "many, many" clemencies from Huckabee."
Now *thats* beyond pandering.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1937282/posts?page=67
Showing up is not reaching out to African Americans. Anyone can show up say a few pretty words and then go home to his nice safe life. Reaching out is changing inner city schools, stoping illegals from taking scholarships that kids of all color need, stoping illegals from bringing these drugs to inner cities and using the minority to push drugs,etc. Come to AK &see just how much the huckster cares about African Americans then say he is not pandering. That is the problem people listen to words instead of looking at action.
No, showing up is the baseline. Then you actually have to do something or communicate that you did something. And the list that you provided would fit the bill. If you don't show up, it implies you haven't done anything worth talking about.
Now, I'm not going to defend Huckabee for what he has or has not done in AR relative to minority voters because 1) I don't know and 2) I don't support him or anyone else for that matter as of yet. The point of this post though was that Mitt, Rudy, John, and Fred made an unforced error by skipping this forum and in so doing gave Huckabee the exposure and airtime he had been previously denied in more crowded debates with the 4 frontrunners.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
Amazing what happens when you're respectful enough to show up. You're 100% correct. There is a new age of Conservative coming. One that rejects the race baiting of republicans and democrats. Huck taps into that.
I vote on principle so I'm voting for Fred, but Huck's style and convictions(though not all of his policies) are the way to grow the party.
I used to be a Huck guy...for about 2 weeks. I am currently in the process of working on running my own marketing firm. Nothing frightens me more as a small business owner than a Democratic/Huckabee Presidency. Why? Because Huckabee isn't just bad on fiscal issues-he's atrocious. There is a reason why for all of the fiscons crying about the Bush years, that GW Bush has presided over the largest economic growth period. Because he recognizes that small businesses have tof iel taxes as "the rich" as the Democrats love to call anyone who owns a business. Under Bush's economic policies more African Americans have become home owners and small business owners in the history of the United States. That's the case to the African-American community for fiscal conservatism. Many people do not realize that the rich includes anyone who gets a business to do well. The Democrats punish you for economic success and wonder why their economics lose elections. When I heard Huckabee say at the last debate that not all taxes are bad things, that to me said exactly how he would run the Oval Office with a Democratic Congress. He's Zell Miller with an R, but he doesn't get it past God, guns and gays-I'd recommend taking a closer look at Romney/Johnny Mac (ugh never thought I'd say that about McCain). Not to mention I question whether Huck has the experience to deal with keeping us safe against Iran and winning the war in Iraq.
"Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots, and on the matter of America's self-preservation, the difference is irrelevant."-Ann Coulter
Pitbull of the VRWC
To make you a fiscon.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
As a small business owner you should be supporting Mike. He is the only candidate that is backing the Fair Tax. The one policy alone has more benefits for a self-employed individual than any plan proposed by all the other candidates. Check it out for yourself at Fairtax.org.
Huckabee's actions speak louder than words. Huck's not an honest tax reformer, but a johnny-come-lately who needed a campaign gimmick - marriage of convenience.
His real tax record is recorded here:
http://www.taxhikemike.org/
http://realmikehuckabee.blogspot.com/
http://therealmikehuckabee.blogspot.com/
"According to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, the average Arkansas tax burden increased 47% over Huckabee’s tenure. Huckabee supported (in chronological order) a sales tax hike; gas and diesel fuel tax hikes; another sales tax hike; a cigarette tax hike; a nursing home bed tax; another sales tax hike; an income surcharge tax; a tobacco tax hike; taxes on Internet access; and higher beer taxes. Huckabee also oversaw a 50-percent increase in spending; happily signed a minimum wage increase and encouraged national Republicans to do the same; favors a national smoking ban, farm subsidies, and a federally mandated arts and music curriculum; opposes private school choice; and employs class-warfare and protectionist language on the campaign trail. " - Pat Toomey
Someone who spends 10 years hiking taxes and spending as Governor is going to look pretty bad on the campaign trail trying to defend that horrible record to consrevative voters. So what does he do? He then joins the FairTax bandwagon to get some organization in Iowa and get some conservative suckers to sign up for his campaign. Yet the FairTax will never pass near-term and in the meantime serious tax-and-spend questions are deflected by Huckabee, or (as in S-CHIP) he takes the big-spend approach. Huckabee cannot be taken seriously on the tax issue.
"Nothing frightens me more as a small business owner than a Democratic/Huckabee Presidency. Why? Because Huckabee isn't just bad on fiscal issues-he's atrocious."
100% dittos on this. In response to the abysmal rating that the Cato Institute ("D" rating) and other correct criticisms of Huckabee's tax-and-spend policies, Huck didn't respond factually, he bashed the groups, like Club for Growth, and dissembled about his record.
IBD noted: " Mike Huckabee, whose appeal among evangelicals has raised him to within striking distance in Iowa, has continually attacked the Club for Growth, a major champion of conservative economic policies, as the "Club for Greed."
Calling capitalists Scrooges is straight out of the liberal Democratic playbook. A more helpful retort from Huckabee would be to address the Club's concerns about his approving an income-tax surcharge in Little Rock."
And that's the bottom line. Mike Huckabee's populist bashing response has proven the Club for Growth correct.
People are cooing about Mike Huckabee's outreach to liberals, Tavis Smiley, and unions etc. Well, his pandering to the NEA is no less annoying than John Edwards doing the same, especially when he comes down on the NEA's side on issue. His support for CO2 cap-and-trade is not a plus, its a big fat *minus*. His nanny-state support for smoking bans is wrong. His Democrat-like browbeating of the economy and business is pure populist pap that is divisive, false, and conducive to economic-over-regulation. He was wrong to hike spending taxes as Arkansas Gov as much as he did, and doubly wrong to bash the conservatives who expose his real record. What we need seriously is more outreach to real conservatives and less populist liberal policies!
Maybe Huckabee sounds good if you are shallow or uninformed voter who don't study his real record, but Huckabee is perhaps the worst possible choice we could make for the GOP nomination.
I agree Republicans need to do more to reach out to the AA community but they made more of an effort than usual in 2000. They featured many black Republican speakers at the convention and Bush spoke to the NAACP and Urban League. What did he get for his trouble? The NAACP's James Byrd dragging death commercials. So, go to the events put on be AA groups and get outrageous dishonest commercials making you look like you approve of lynchings or don't go to those events as Bob Dole failed to do but no outrageous dishonest commercials. Hopefully at some point a Republican candidate will reach out and be successful gaining a bigger share of AA votes but he will have to work around the leadership of some of these groups and communicate directly to AA voters.
Bob Dole never got outrageous commercials because he was never really a threat to a second Clinton term. On the other hand, he never got any additional votes either. Arguably, Bush's outreach directly to church leaders paid off with an increase in the black vote in Ohio (16% in 2004) without which he would not be president today.
Anyways, the problems usually lie with Julian Bond, Danny Glover, and Harry Belafonte; but they do not speak for black America no matter how well they market themselves as if they do. The same goes for Jesse and Al. We are going to run into more pushback from black Democratic leaders, the more we do outreach. If we run home crying every time, we'll never make any progress.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
Well that is true about Ohio. I totally agree about who the problem lies with, ie the leadership, not necessarily the rank and file of the AA community. I guess it may take several election cycles of targeting the AA community and maybe the desperation of the leadership to maintain the status quo will finally be obvious to a larger percentage of the AA community.
Having said that, I understand and second your frustration.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts
I was extremely disappointed by the loss of Michael Steele in Maryland and Ken Blackwell in Ohio in last years election. I was very impressed with both of them and could have seen their leadership if elected go a long way to making "Black Republican" not seem like an oxymoron to so many people.
Ditto. I'm working in my spare time to try to build a grassroots of black Republicans so that we can mobilize them better in general but specifically in races like Steele's and Blackwell's for GOTV. It's a long, slow painful process but it's worth it.
There is nothing lonelier than being a black Republican in Boston, Massachusetts

blackrepublican
I have a bigger question for you to ponder, can a Baptist minister who attributes his campaign success to a "higher power" appeal to voters in a general election?
I think not, and I believe that HuckaMcGovern will assure the election of a Democratic president and a majority in both houses. HuckaMcGovern 's appeal is not broad and not one that can carry a national 50 state election.
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Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !