How Can Fred Win?

By Conservative Paul Posted in Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Tomorrow morning the McClatchy/MSNBC poll will officially be released, putting Mitt Romney ahead of Jonn McCain in the RCP average for Michigan. I am elated that someone besides a liberal is leading in the MI polls but after NH I don't know how much comfort I can take from these numbers, especially with the shenanigans that theDaily Kos is trying to pull.  The burning question is what impact will a Romney MI victory have on the race?  This will give him "2 golds and 2 silvers" and enough momentum going into Nevada's caucus to pull out another victory.  I doubt a MI victory will give Romney enough of a bump to make an impact in SC, at least not for the good.  The unfortunate side effect a MI victory may have is siphoning supporters from Fred to Mitt as well as a likely weakening of McCain's support, leaving Huckabee in position to win.  I could really go the rest of this election cycle without hearing that ignoramus give another victory speech.  On the other hand, if McCain wins Michigan Fred is toast anyway due to the bounce Mr. Amnesty will get.  I hurts me to say this but I just don't see how Fred can come out of SC with a victory.  There are simply too many poll watchers out there who don't think for themselves and who will be affected by the outcome of other primaries.  Here's to hoping that Fred can overcome these obstacles and bring one home for the conservatives.

Then, things happened. Things will happen tomorrow and the next day, and...and then we will see.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer

of his resources out of SC to concentrate on MI so I doubt Mitt will get any significant bump in SC so Fred is more likely to get Mitt voters than vice versa.

McCain '08

with Mitt taking most of his resources out of SC he still has more there than Fred who has been coasting on fumes for a while now. Don't get me wrong, I like Fred, he definitely outflanks everyone, but his victory in SC would absolutely eclipse the Clinton comeback in NH. Like what was mentioned above, a lot can happen in a few days, which is the premise of my post. For whoever wins MI the 'a lot' that will be happening, will be happening to them, not Fred.

And I do think that is very possible, it will be such a shock that he could actually take FL, and then on Super Tuesday, he would be the man to beat.

Side note concerning SC:
The person who ran SC for McCain in 2000, is working for Fred this time

to he military heroism, and dems and indies can vote in SC so long as they don't vote in the other primary first. In 2008 it will be a 3 or man race.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer

McCain, Huckabee and Thompson, correct? I find that amusing since he is 6 points out of 3rd place in the RCP average.

events based on present day polls amusing for over a year. Based on your logic, Hillary defeated Rudy last year and is running for her 2nd term now.

My amusement comes from analyzing today based on history and the knowledge of various constituencies.

You see, I remember past campaigns with amusing polls that CHANGE.

The race in SC will be a close race between 3 or 4 candidates (If Mitt wins Michigan it will be 4).

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer

McCain has had some bad appearances on local talk radio on immigration; Ads are reminding voters of how he insulted the state in 2000 and of his record since then; Fred is all over the state on the bus tour and has ads up and Mitt and Rudy are absent. Huck will get MUCH less of a % of the evangelical vote in SC as he did in Iowa.

Fred can win.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer

FDT did not get in this race to promote a particular issue or to be VP. This is how he thinks he can win the nomination is by takeing SC. From day one here at RS it has been said FDT will make his stand in SC.
Even when I have an extra $5 I send it.When he gets over the top in SC it will because of everyone pulling together to get him there.

"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."
John Paul Jones (letter to M. Le Ray de Chaumont,16 Nov.1778)

Hope Mitt stops McCains momentum, stay in the race, and start beating the Huckster in the South.

With Rudy's numbers in FL and CA, he could defintely still win those delegate rich states. If Huck wins SC and Romney with MI, I think a brokered convention a 60/40 likelihood.

Problem is, Rudy better be able to have enough money to make through and WIN FL or he will have a 12 egg omelet on his face.


Now that the winner-take-all delegate system has changed, I'm not convinced that one-off early states produce the type of sea change bounce you predict, CP. I think a larger impact is dealt to Romney if he loses Michigan.

It seems to me that any of the GOP candidates would be foolish to pull out before Super Tuesday, because things are just so fluid right now. Also, as long as the possibility of brokered convention exists, staying in the race is the move.

I do think that if Fred finishes lower than 3rd in SC, then he might consider dropping out, but win, place, or show in SC and it's on to Super Tuesday.

A McCain win in MI hurts Mitt much more than it hurts Fred, in my opinion. But, Mitt should also stay in, even if MI goes McCain.

To address another thing you said in your post, I think labeling Huck as an ignoramus is inaccurate and unfair. I don't like his record or his proposals any more than you do, but he's not ignorant. He's running a very effective campaign on very little money. Perhaps you are trolling for enraged Huckaider responses to your post, I don't know, but I don't think name-calling gets us anywhere

My point is a MI win for McCain coupled with his NH win and the media love fest he has going on will be enough for him to carry SC. Fred not winning SC would hurt more than Romney not winning MI. Why? Romney has actually placed twice and won once. MI is an open primary and McCain is expected to pick up a large portion of the Dem and Indie support. A MI loss is simply easier to spin than a SC loss for Fred.

As I posted in another thread, if Romney looses I expect him not to drop out but instead coast through the rest of the primaries, picking up what delegates he can, and hopefully sending us to a brokered convention.

When I refer to Huck as an ignoramus I am inferring he is the dunce of the Republican candidates and has time and again shown himself to be unaware of important issues or world events. This is undeniable and the definition of an ignoramus.

It really does not seem likely that Fred! pulls out SC, and your reasons are sound. If Romney wins MI than I don't care who wins SC, just as long as it's not Thompson. I think Thompson muddies the water for Romney, so he would be an unfortunate causality. I think Thompson knows the same thing and that is why he has not gotten involved heavily up until to this point.

"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman

And he is gone, and more than likely, he would support Fred and the natural affinity of his supporters would migrate to Fred as well

You fail to factor in McCain. A Mitt loss equals a McCain win. That would only add to the NH momentum he has going on. MI is a no-win situation for Fred and this is why it is unlikely he will carry SC.

I really do not think MI will matter all that much on SC. First the MSM nationally is not giving MI all that much attention and second the main issue in MI is the economy and I would guess among SC Republicans it is third behind the war and social issues.

McCain '08

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