McCain doing well in the Rust Belt (PA Poll)
By Darin H Posted in 2008 — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
John McCain seems to be the right man in the right place at the right time.
Super Saul blogged earlier about a new poll showing John McCain with a small, within the margin of error lead in the leaning blue swing state of Michigan over both Obama and Clinton (for those not clicking over - a 3 point lead over both).
Even better news comes out of leaning blue Pennsylvania, this time from Strategic Vision (by way of the Wall Street Journal).
A new poll gives McCain,the presumptive Republican nominee, a lead over both his Democratic opponents in the Keystone State, which holds its primary on April 22. When survey respondents were asked if they would choose McCain or Clinton in the general election, 48% opted for McCain versus 42% for Clinton. A match-up between McCain and Obama was closer, with McCain receiving 47% and Obama at 44%.
BTW - 1200 Likely voters, 3% MoE and held March 7-9 (weekend). And this same poll shows low approval ratings for both President Bush and Congress. In addition to the poll, we are told that John McCain is there with a fundraiser tonight in Philly and a town hall meeting tomorrow in Springfield.
If John McCain can win Michigan and Pennsylvania, it will go a long ways towards him winning the presidency, even if he were to lose Ohio. This might make picking a Midwest governor like Pawlenty or Romney with his Michigan roots a smart move.
I'm not counting on the map staying the same from 2004 though. Similar sure - i.e. in 2004, Florida wasn't really a battleground like it was in 2000 (won't be against Obama, maybe against Clinton this time around). I don't know if we're facing the 2006 map or the 2004 map, or a combination of both and a few other battle ground states to look out for (such as my current state of Oregon). Either way, I'll take these polls right now!
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
Obama has a hefty lead in Iowa and will probably pick up Colorado. (I'd predict New Mexico too, but it is on McCain's border.)
We need to fight and fight hard in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. I think Michigan is not as great a bet unless Romney is VP.
No one of good character leaves behind a wasted life - John McCain
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
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It's nice the Democrats decided effectively not to campaign in Michigan (or Florida) this primary season. Unless they reschedule do-overs there, they won't be in either state much for months to come.
Unfortunately they will be in Pennsylvania massively leading up to the primary there, but I suppose there is some possibility they will hurt each other as much as they help themselves.
If I were Senator McCain, I'd be spending a lot of time now in the swing states the Democrats will be neglecting while they are contesting PA, NC, primaries etc.
Rasmussen also has McCain up in PA. I would make him a slight favorite there. And I really doubt he will lose Colorado.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and NH are all competitive.
...if he picks up New Hampshire (assuming the rest of the 2004 map stays the same). I think Pennsylvania is definitely in play.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”