More Rust Belt for McCain (OH poll) plus Sunshine (FL poll)
By Darin H Posted in 2008 — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Last week I pointed out how well Senator John McCain was doing in leaning blue Pennsylvania against both Sens Clinton and Obama (leading by 6% and 3% respectively). In the scope the the electoral college, PA holds 21 EC votes and went for both Kerry and Gore.
I also noted Saul's earlier blog about Sen McCain leading in blue leaning Michigan (both by 3%). Michigan's 17 electors also went for both Kerry and Gore.
Those 2 states are huge and both went to the Democrats. Last Friday, Rasmussen released a poll on the state of the race in formerly red leaning Ohio which saw a big shift between 2004 when President Bush won and 2006 when we saw the governorship and a senate seat go to far left Democrats. We have been worried about how the local GOP problems might drag on the top of the ticket with its 20 electors up for grabs:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio shows John McCain leading both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by identical 46% to 40% margins. In the last poll conducted before the hard fought Democratic Primary, McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama and a three-point edge over Clinton.
The bad news is that Sen McCain is under 50% against both, but the good news is that he is leading both by 6%. No crosstabs available (unless someone wants to buy me a subscription to RR). Winning Ohio still won't be easy, but I'd rather be leading than trying to come from behind at this point.
Next up is a poll from red leaning Florida, the great state that saved us from Al Gore and thankfully didn't give John Kerry much of a shot. From Rasmussen. Senator McCain almost assuredly must take Florida and its 27 electors if he is to win the Presidency.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a four-percentage point lead over Barack Obama and a seven- percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s McCain 47% Obama 43% and McCain 47% Clinton 40%. For Obama, this reflects a significant improvement compared to polling in February. For Clinton, little has changed.
The numbers for Obama are curious (not the total, the direction), but yet again we see Senator John McCain with a few percentage points of a lead. I don't know how the Florida delegate debacle will play out, but most scenarios can't be that good for either Democrat candidate.
Taken all together, we see John McCain with small, mostly within the margin of error leads in 4 crucial states, 2 red leaning and 2 blue leaning with a total of 85 electors (or more than 1/4 of the total needed to become president).
Let us hope the Democrats continue their wonderful nomination process!
Pennsylvania has a long tradition of religious and social tolerance that continues to this day. Presently, one-third of all residents belong to the Roman-Catholic church, another third consists of all other religions, and the remaining third fall into the category of "other". If McCain is careful with socially conservative rhetoric, then PA can be captured. Go too far, however, and he can end up like Rick Santorum or the Dover Schoolboard.
"Austere, intolerant, well-armed, and blood-thirsty, in their own regions the Wahhabis are a distinct factor which must be taken into account" - Winston Churchill, 1921