Redstate

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

Great ad, thanks for posting it.

absentee

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Go Fred Go!

Romney's support will drop in SC and likely go to Fred, which could vault him into the lead or close to the lead. Fred needs to zip past Romney and Huckabee and fight McCain for first. Then he would become the conservative candidate with the momentum.

I think the nomination comes down to Fred and McCain.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.

"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle

Just not the two men that it was just a couple of months ago.

www.fred08.com

http://www.mikehuckabee.com

"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore

The Republican party will not elect a pro-life liberal to lead our party. Fred will try to return us to the Reagan coalition. It's not dead.

Huck loses 5% and Fred gains 4% and you say Huck will win? I hope you will be supporting Fred soon.

www.fred08.com

Much of Romney's SC support would go to Thompson, giving him a chance for a 2nd or even 1st place finish. Unfortunately KOS is intent on keeping Mitt Romney alive by having Democrats sabatoge our primary.

Guns don't kill people, abortions kill people.

A McCain win tomorrow will likely consolidate his existing large lead in SC. Romney's loss will probably affect Romney's polls in SC, but do we really have good reason to believe those folks will go to Fred?

Let me propose the following--McCain wins tomorrow, McCain wins in SC, McCain will likely finish strong, if not first, in FL, then he will have ALL the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Only an actual alliance between two or more of theother candidates will be able to stop him then.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

A MI loss would put him at 0-3 in contests he's contended. (McCain would be 2-0, Huckabee 1-1, Fred 0-1, and Rudy 0-0)...

Romney's people hate McCain and Huckabee so they'd have nowhere to jump in SC but to Fred...

Spitballs?!?! / Yo No Soy Marinero, Soy Capitan

The majority of Romney's supporters are probably unlike the majority of his supporters on the web.

ElCapitan--you gotta remember--we are WEIRD!

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

ElCapitan

If you could keep score like that in the NFL your team would ALWAYS make the playoffs.

I'm not sure what scenario tomorrow is better for Fred. If McCain wins, Fred is more likely to pick up Romney supporters, but McCain gets a bump in SC. Fred likely surpasses Romney and maybe Huckabee, but loses to McCain who looks like a strong frontrunner. If Romney wins, then he gets a bump and pulls supporters from Fred. Either way, it's hard for me to see how Fred finishes first.

Because Fred needs his voters. McCain's voters are moderates and though some polling suggests they are soft, I don't think they are likely to move from him. Romney supporters, on the other hand, are conservative in nature and thus would likely prefer Fred over Huckabee or McCain. Fred is only 3 points behind Huckabee and 12 points behind McCain. Fred simply getting a good portion of the undecideds, a few more from Huck and a few from Romney coudl vault him into the lead or at least a close second.

If a strengthened Romney comes into South carolina, though, then his voters likely stay with him and Fred might be stuck around 20%. Maybe still second but a more distant second.

Best case for Fred? McCain beats Romney narrowly -- weakens Romney but does not overly benefit McCain.

A win for McCain is pretty much game, set, match for Fred in South Carolina.

At that point, McCain is easily the national front runner. The people will see his lead in South Carolina, the national polls, Nevada, and with another win in Michigan, and the inevitability factor will set in.

Fred still has the reputation of running a very weak, disorganized campaign. If McCain grows much larger and looks that much stronger, it really won't matter what Thompson does. He's going to be devoured.

Fred needs Romney to win Michigan.

"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan

...that would stop McCain's momentum. Yet, I don't know that it would give Romney much down South.
I hope that Fred can continue to hack away at Huckabee. Right now, there just isn't much in the Palmetto State seperating #2-#4.
Fred's gonna do what Fred's gonna do and all we can do is pray for the true conservative to speak to those that are undecided.

"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

And then the question for us Fredheads is how much good does a second or third do for Fred.

A STRONG second does some good. Third wouldn't seem to help as much.

I think a Romney win and a #2 finish for Fred means Fred can continue and try to compete in FL and Super Tuesday.
McCain #1 makes that harder though. That is purely my gut though, so take it for what it is worth. Not much, but all I got. :>)

"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore

If McCain comes out ahead of Fred after SC, in fact lets say McCain is the front runner coming into SuperTuesday- does anyone really think the conservatives of this country are going to nominate John McCain? Even if he got some kind of momentum. Surely NOT.

But what if the conservatives of this country are split between Romney, Fred, and Mike?

Then what.

McCain plays Guiliani (as Guiliani for saw it) and takes all the moderates.

we deserve to lose. I am not even kidding about that. McCain is a one man movement wrecker who has never failed to show his utmost contempt and scorn for conservatives.

Huckabee is (and I am a Christian saying this) a religious fanatic who thinks that it is his christian duty to free all rapists and murderers and let all illegals into the country.

McCain might could beat Hillary, certainly would lose to Obama. Huck would lose to either one. And God forbid we would get a McCain/Huck ticket. That would put Huckabee in the top position for the future even if they lost the general election.

They frighten me and disgust me. They have NOTHING to offer conservatives or libertarians. NOTHING.

"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle

You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.

maybe 90%... It would be a Republican disaster if either one was the Republican nominee. Actually, almost all would be a party breaker.

Seems like the Republicans have the most unelectable candidates this year (conservative wise) and won't see much enthusiasm because of it. I expect voter turnout will be very low (unless Thompson is the nominee).

Still waiting for Fred...(my only choice and only reason to vote).

Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."

Well according to my imagination, my aforementioned scenario would look more like a 2-man race by then. Not to say the other guys would be officially out yet...

* McCain winning MI
* Mitt losing Mo [mentum]
* Do some of Mitt's SC supporters go to Fred then? Hope so.
* Fred getting 1st or 2nd in SC

This I imagine could result in Fred and McCain having the post-SC momentum going into SuperTuesday. Who would the conservatives want to hedge their bets on come that Tuesday? Fred (probably the most liked/consensus candidate all along- except now he suddenly appears "electable") or McCain? (yeah right!) Mitt (now behind, with no Mo)... Huck?? (note how I emphasized conservatives)... Rudy? (questionable in some areas as a conservative... and with zero Mo at this point)

I may not know what I am talking about. Feel free to let me know if you believe this to be the case ;-)

Have you seen the national poll #s? McCain is currently in the lead at 33%. I would never have thought that was possible.

If polls said 33% of conservatives believed that red is really blue and blue is really red, I wouldn't believe them either.

point taken

1. Finish ahead of Huckabee. that's actually more important than finishing first. Fred needs to assert himself as the only southern candidate in the race, and that would happen with a win vs. Huckabee. That would mean Huckabee wouldn't have won since Iowa, perpetuating the idea that Huck was a one state wonder. With Florida and the Super Tuesday states going next, Fred needs Huckabee's supporters who are supporting him because he is pro-life.

2. Finishing at least second, if not first. Fred needs at least a strong second in order to have momentum. Obviously, first place would be huge and completely reshape the race and I think would essentially eliminate Romney and Huckabee, especially if McCain wins Michigan. Conservatives would have found their horse to ride and they would be unifying behind Fred.

However, even if Fred finished a strong second to McCain (let's say it was McCain 30, Fred 25, Huck 17, Romney 17, Others 10), that would be a big boost for Fred too. It is basically important for Fred to win the "conservative primary" in South Carolina, and that is between him, Huck (although he's not conservative he's going after those voters), and Romney. Fred could argue the conservative vote was split, but he won it -- and that would likely force Huckabee and Romney down in the polls headed into Florida, where the mod vote is split between McCain and Rudy and where Fred could make up the 8-10 point difference by getting Romney and Huckabee supporters.

For the first time, as I said in another post, there is a path to a nomination for Fred.

My fearless prediction in SC?

Fred 30
McCain 28
Huck 17
Romney 14
Rudy 5
Paul 5
Others 1

That's a good point on FL, I am glad you emphasized it- that McCain and Rudy will split the moderate (jello) vote in FL. My thinking/hoping is that this will leave Fred with the opportunity to continue to pick up steam, having again won the conservative vote- assuming he has just come out of SC having done so there.

That means you think he losses MI. If that happens than I could see your scenario, but man do I hope you are wrong.

"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman

If Romney loses he's probably done so yeah, 14. If he wins it it really doesn't matter much either as it is home state. I dont think the results matter too much for SC other than if he loses MI he could really plummet.

Fred is in a no-win situation. Your logic regarding a Romney loss is flawed. McCain would pick up MORE support with a MI win, not just tread water. According to the Rasmussen Reports poll 8% of voters are undecided. I am sorry but if McCain wins he will take most of that 8% not McCain. I would be surprised if Thompson finished above 15%.

Most people drive past Fantasy Island, but [FredHeads] live there.

I dont think so. I Think his support is already understated and he has all the momentum much like McCAin did in New Hampshire and Huck did in Iowa. Also, I am not predicting who wins Michigan. I actually think it's pretty close to a tie or a narrow McCain win which won't mean very much. I don't think anyone is going to be swayed by Michigan, especially since Fred and Huck aren't really fighting up there (though Huck spent some time) I also don't think Romney gets any kind of a bounce if he wins, because he has to and it will have been his home state. It would be like Fred winning TN -- you really can't lose it, you know?

Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."

Spitballs?!?! / Yo No Soy Marinero, Soy Capitan

Is that before 10:00 or at 10:00?

absentee

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It is AT 10, although one guy in Poland is doing it before. LOL.

www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie

It's only 9:16pm EST and Fred has already hit his goal of a million by midnight! Nice work!

I think, therefore I vote Republican

and didn't see it 'til 10:20 p.m. ET. I immediately gave $10. That still counts, right?? ;-)

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FRED!!!

You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.

I'm sure there's a clock somewhere in the world that says it's 10:00. he

www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie

but with RUdy or ROmney you have the chance they might betray conservatives, with McCain and Huck you already know they will betray conservatives, in fact they already have, many times.

"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle

As any win in Florida is not likely to be by a big margin and at least 4 candidates will continue on -- Fred, Romney, Rudy, McCain -- if Rudy wins. With all the Super Tuesday states, it could easily end up split 4 ways again -- Fred winning AL, GA, TN, and OK, Rudy and McCain splitting the north, McCain winning AZ, Romney UT and some of the caucus states.

Welcome to the wonderful world of a brokered convention. Because no one will get the majority of delegates.

Mind you, at this point I'm not sure that'd be a bad thing.

---
"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI

I'm pretty sure if Fred doesn't carry Oklahoma (my state), he's done!

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