IL14 Special Election Coverage (Dems Gaining A Seat)
By dld1717 Posted in Elections | Illinois — Comments (168) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/index.html
Its not looking so good with quarter out. Foster ahead 55% to 45% by about 3000 votes. Not only do the Dems increase their majority but they win a GOP district of the out going Republican leader. This is so bad
with nearly 41% of vote out
Foster leads by about 4000 votes to 53% to 47%
any Illinois posters on? Anyone tell where the votes are coming from and if the remaining is better for Oberweis?
So Oberweis should improve. I really kind of hope he losses tonight and decides to drop out instead of being on the ballot in November. A generic Republican wins this seat and if Oberweis can not hold in a special election, he wont in November especially if the Obamessiah is on the ballot.
McCain '08
Well with 75% in he is now down by 5000 votes with 53% to 47%
I think its safe to call this race now Foster has won.
I don't care how people viewed Oberweis the fact is Foster ran as a staunch liberal in a district like this and appears to have won. Thats very low and it will hurt our moral
...for November, regardless if he drops out or not.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
stuff should really hit the fan now that he is congress and an Obama Superdelegate.
McCain '08
face it this should be a Republican seat and now we lost it and won't take it back in November either.
I don't get why Republicans didn't vote for Oberweis because of his policies
in the Gubentorial election as a protest because Blago was a shoe in and I just could not fill in the Topinka bubble because she is a moderate and has an the ethics record of a typical Illnois pol.
McCain '08
and he runs for every office that comes up, spending tons of money and crowding out more capable people. I hope this ends it for him.
I'm not too familiar with the divorce stuff, but know it came out in the campaign. I don't see how it becomes a national story when it didn't even move the numbers in this election.
I can call all paper headlines tom.
Dems increase House Majority with Hastert Seat
Thats a pretty low blow morally to Republicans.
We handed over the Speaker of the House's Republican district to a Moveon.org Democrat!! Way to go!!
I don't think you can understate how bad this loss is for morale.
Oh yeah, did I mention that the NRCC spent millions defending this seat when they barely have any money at all?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
would retain this?...I hope this isn't a shocker to you
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
I sure as hell did!
This is a Republican district, Hastert's seat, so why the heck would we not? The guy running for the Dems didn't even hide the fact he was a liberal.
against him....yep, that seat should be ours
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Every nonpartisan political commentator had this as leaning Republican (at least until the last few days). So, yes, I did expect to hold this seat and it's extremely disheartening to lose it.
I live here, and have yet to meet anyone that doesn't think Oberweiss is a sack of .....
You guys amaze me at your shock....wanna get really shocked, watch Mark Kirk get his butt handed to him in the next election.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Bob Novak's last column said that in the end Foster would probably lose simply because of this district's Republican demographics.
And I don't think anyone expected the Democrat to win this district by 5 percentage points.
The GOP's swing to the right in the 1990's gave it a house and senate majority by allowing it to clean up in Southern conservative Democratic areas.
But you can only get away with this for so long before the blowback, and nowhere has it been stronger than New England and in the once solidly Republican seats in the suburbs of big cities.
Obviously a 20-year incumbent and popular former Speaker of the House is going to do much better than a candidate in an open seat. The problem for the House GOP is that there are 10 open seats right now less Republican than this district, and another 5 open seats less than two percentage points more Republican than this district*, which was just won by a Democrat by more than 5 points.
I'm not saying that Oberweis would have won if he were a more moderate Republican. He would have attracted more independant votes, but conservative turnout and fundraising would have been depressed. I have no idea if
that trade-off would have helped him.
What I am saying is the rebranding of the GOP as the conservative Southern Christian party has damaged the GOP brand severely in the North and West. The near-complete meltdown of the GOP in New England in 2006 is well on its way to happening in the outlaying suburban districts in the North and West, even those the GOP previously won in repeatedly by comfortable margins.
The Democratic victory in a district Bush carried only 3 years ago by 11.6 points is a symptom of this trend where the Republican brand has been seriously damaged in much of the country, especially by George Bush and Tom Delay.
*The Republican open seats less Republican than the district just lost by 5 points are AZ-1, IL-1, MD-1, MN-3, NJ-7, NJ-3, NM-1, NY-25, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11.
The Republican open seats less than 2 points more Republican than the district just lost by 5 points are IL-18, LA-4, LA-6, OH-7, and NM-2.
was as Red as you could ever imagine....not any more. The Demo's have changed...money is money, and that is a big thing.
We have big dollar people moving in all the time, being transfered, whatever. They come from all over, and many are not R's. Just a fact of life here.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
94% in
Foster , Bill Dem 48,170 53%
Oberweis , Jim GOP 43,488 47%
Another bad sign for the GOP for things to come in Fall. The Dems win a staunch GOP district and do so pretty convincingly.
It'd be neat if we had a Republican party in that state.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
This loss has nothing to do with George Ryan and everything to do with George Bush.
With the kind of ham-handed leadership the president is showing, the dems could run frenchmen in November and win big.
I wish Senator McCain would play down the prez's endorsement. Nobody's impressed.
It's true that Bush is not popular here even among Republicans, but we can't let the Illinois GOP use that as an excuse. If we do, they will continue to throw up retreads and losers as fodder for the Dems.
Look, I've been on record for a while as being ready for GWB to go gently into the good night. His admin as been a PR nightmare, and he's all-but-hijacked the conservative party on the issues of spending and nanny-statism, leading it into the liberal-lite wilderness. Does anybody really think, for example, that the Republican majority would have passed the trillion-dollar Medicare Part D entitlement had it been a Democrat president proposing it? Of course not.
However, GWB isn't at fault for everything. IL, VA, and other states' pathetic GOPs are those states' problems. If they have to be repaired in spite of the President, rather than with him, so be it -- but the states have to do the heavy lifting either way.
That's not going to fly up here. But that wasn't the reason we lost this race. Oberweis isn't a SoCon or a FisCon, he's just a giant douche who has spent the last 5-7 years spending his millions trying to buy a government job - any job. I voted for Lauzen who also happens to be my State Senator and would have been a stronger candidate against Foster, but my fellow Republicans fell for the guy who spent more on media buys. I just hope that this loss and Mitt Romney's disasterous presidential campaign will disabuse us of the notion that we need to nominate empty suits that can self-fund.
Most of his money came from his investment firm that he founded. He also has a small dairy and he's opened up a chain of ice cream shops here in NE Illinois. Foster was a scientist at Fermilab in Batavia.
Oberweis isn't a SoCon or a FisCon, he's just a giant douche who has spent the last 5-7 years spending his millions trying to buy a government job - any job.
[...]
I just hope that this loss and Mitt Romney's disasterous presidential campaign will disabuse us of the notion that we need to nominate empty suits that can self-fund
Hear, hear, 5555555, etc., etc., etc. This is part of why I really don't want people who want higher office to get anywhere near those offices they seek.
This is disgraceful, just absolutely disgraceful.
This is going to be a national story for the next week or more.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
AP calls the race for Foster with about 96% of the vote in.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Is it time for Tom Cole to step aside? This is a big black eye and even if it's not his fault, he might be the scapegoat.
Cole may get some flak for spending a bunch of cash on a race that we should have won.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
All I can say is that I really hope the GOP and NRCC pressure Oberweis to drop out and let Chris Lauzen try to retake this thing in the fall.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
No way! Screw Chris Lauzen too he should of done the honorable thing for his party and endorsed Oberweis. No matter how heated these things get the losers should always back their party nominee.
"honorable" in regards to anything in IL politics....that concept left when Lincoln did.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
They had this thing pegged.
my question is: Was Oberwies that bad a candidate or is this a case of the message not resonating with people?
This race was a HUGE deal. This was such a Republican stronghold that even a weak candidate would normally win. But this thing wasn't even close.
Those scandals really seem to have tarnished the Republican brand so badly that it may take many, many years to regain our footing.
Maybe there is just a gigantic political realignment going on. How can Republicans possibly counter this horrific momentum that just won't end?
Illinois just might be a state that has to be written off at every level.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
...but losing this seat is serious, serious, SERIOUS, stuff, folks. There needs to be some major soul searching and probably big changes in the Illinois GOP and the NRCC.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
most of the trout are contaminated...we have to cut their bellies out to eat them
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
We already knew that from the Keyes ordeal though. This is not news.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
But losing in a heavily Republican district most certainly is.
There was an ad that showed Oberweiss and a ghostly spectre of President Bush hovering behind him that seemed to really move the numbers in this race. I'm sure that strategy will be used frequently this fall.
we put up a rich, egomaniac that wants tooooo badly to be elected to public office. That scares people....period.
It had nothing to do with GWB...we put up a pisspoor guy, knew it, and figured what the heck.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
necessarily a sign of things to come. Although the guys who picked the loser shouldn't be allowed to pick the next guy.
we keep putting up dopes. The D party in IL is so far ahead in terms of recruitment, organization, heck, spirit!
They now believe they can take once held R "stongholds"...and they can...they have worked it, kept at it, and waited for the time.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
This is why.
Being Democrat lite was no good for us.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
this freaking party died long ago in this state. I've watched for years 2 SOB Senators from my state call my president every name in the book...I have yet to hear any R in my state mount an attack back at them....how would anyone in this state be inspired to run for office when your own elected leaders lay down like pansies and let opposong offcials liken our troops to Nazis?....the Il GOP are a bunch of cowards...we got what was coming, and sadly, I think there is more to come.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Om fact only NY I think has a worse party than IL GOP, but you can't blaim the state party compelely. I mean someone had to nominate the Republican and then someone had to campaign for them. When your brand is so beat up sometimes it is time to suck it up for awhile and nominate a moderate conservative. This is not always popular (especially here), but it is safe. In my district the Democrats in 2004 and 2006 nominated the same person to run for Congress who had no chance in ever winning. The state party is strong and so is the Democrats name in Indiana, but it doesn't matter if the person running doesnt have any appeal.
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
Delay never ran the House. Hastert did. And gee, this was his seat.
Lay off of Delay, and lay the blame at the feet of the Speaker who lost the House.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
By redistricting and pork.
You are right. Hastert was the greater villain, an appropriator through and through.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
lives in Cook County - where they just raised the sales tax to 10.25%.
The town where he and I grew up - and most of the suburbs - when we were kids used to be a stronghold for Republicans. Not anymore.
People are being forced out of Chicago and Cook County because of taxes and settling in districts further out. However, they are unable to leave their Democrat credentials behind, at least that is according to my friend.
As i said earlier, the demo's are changing. My friends all come from south burbs, the City, all over. They move north, and west, to get out of the city. The schools suck, they have the highest sales tax in the country, infrastructure sucks, and quite frankly, people tire of the City and want peace and quiet.
Plus, they have the money to afford the move to the burbs...
But guess what?...they still are Democrats...many will always be. The strongholds are no more.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
verifying the words of my friend.
As for the Chicago Public School System, he also said that, aside from a select few, the schools there are in a woeful state. He said that the dropout rate in Chicago stands at 50%.
if you had the money, why would you live in the city?...
I can walk out my door, walk 2 blocks, take a train 35 minutes and be in the greatest city in America... then leave and not have to deal with the crap just as easily.
As much as I love my friends, I hate their politics...and hate the fact that it is changing my home area....South Side Irish Dem scum!! :)
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
is that as the populations have shifted, so have the issues.
High taxes and abortion used to be the biggies in the north burbs.... that's right, silence.
I drove home a couple nights ago up the lake from the City....burb after burb of old "strongholds"....I have never seen more, "Support the Troops, end the War" signs. Let alone, the Dan Seals( Kirks opponent)signs.
The times they are a changing, and the Il GOP better get a message, nad get on it.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
of my mom and dad recounting what made them leave the North Side in order to move us to a northern suburb in 1949. I was a little more than a year old.
In 1972 I decided to relocate to East Tennessee. People up there thought I was crazy, but it's a decision I've not regretted.
Now, there's a swarm of people moving here from the Northeast, Midwest, even California in order to flee high taxes.
I live in a three bedroom house and own 10 acres of land in rural Tennessee and if I told you what I paid in property taxes you'd think I was lying.
No way in hell I'm leaving my house today tho-you won't be able to get a car near the streets cuz of the parade. But, go Sox! :-)
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
Get ready for the 1908! chants this year at the Cell-I'll be there for the crosstown classic. :-)
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
more of Cubs fans this year...
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
With their Northside yuppie ways-we don't sell lattes and liberalism down here ;-).
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
You guys also won't be selling winning baseball this year. You should grab some Cubs tickets at the Cell this year, might be your only chance to see a playoff team from Chicago. :-)
We're going to surprise some people this year I think. Contreras seems to have fixed his issues, and this club can hit. Besides, if I don't get the first three games of the Cubs wildcard series, I'll miss them in the playoffs again. :-)
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
a cuff and a crease...I'll meet you at Jimbo's ...first Zima on me. :P
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
And we should hang out for a bit.
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
and you have my word...should I take my dad to a game, we won't get all shined up on meth and rush the field and attack a coach!!
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
I'm trying to get my gf and I tix, but there is no place to by single season tix to Crosstown Classic yet-do you know someplace?
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.Let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."-Barry Goldwater
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
hit me via email...I do have some buddies that have tics, and ability to score others.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
I'm selling my 4 tix to the cross-town classic on Stub Hub. I do it every year. Of course, you'll have to go to Wrigley for the games.
I have a couple pals in kilts down there now doing a tour of gin mills.
Liberal.Drunke.Swine Great day for the parade though
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
it could be the wake up call they need to reset, rethink and refashion the 2008 Republican message. -- In some respects you want your team to lose one before the SB if you get my drift.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
That's especially insulting since I'm probably as far to the Right as one can be on social issues like homosexual rights or abortion issues.
Which I'd appreciate not seeing repeated, thanks.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
I am actually shocked at this outcome, but not completely surprised. The fact is that the Republican Image has been hurt so much that the only person currently untouched it seems is McCain and he isn't exactly one of perfect loyalty to the party.
In the end this justifies my thinking that Republicans will lose House and Senate seats in Nov, which is a downgrade because I thought it might be possible for Republicans to split even.
I understand everyone here is very conservative and very loyal to the Republican Party (which is obviously different for me which you can tell by my sig), but a time comes when you have to say that Republican leadership sucks. The Republican tactics in the Senate ARE NOT HELPING. People are not blaming Democrats they are just hating Republicans even more.
All that the tea leaves are saying right now to me is that even IF McCain can win he will probably face around 56 Democrats in the Senate and about 10+ Democrats in the House, which isn't much to get done. I thought Republicans should be able to pick up at least 1 Senate seat (Landrieu's) but I am starting to highly doubt that, and these are both Conservative and "Moderate" Republicans.
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
Tactics like what? Stopping things like the Union Card Check Thug bill? Or Amnesty for 12 million illegal aliens?
I'd say the senate leadership is better than the national leadership, and that includes Bush. The ghosts of Tom Delay and Dennis Hastert are still haunting the GOP it seems. They sought to keep power by the corrupt practices of earmarking and government giveaways like Medicare D. They didn't articulate conservative principles the way Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey did.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
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It is understandable why you guys like the Senate Leadership, but guess what you still need Independents to win elections and they DO NOT like what is going on.
Republicans in my opinion have to choose between 2 hard options.
1) Continue their current stratagy in Senate, which will lead to more losses in the future.
2) Let liberal messures pass the Senate and get vetoed by Bush. Then Bush gets beaten up which he already is.
The problem obviously isn't communication because I have been hearing that since 2005. The problem isn't "earmarks" because Democrats are using them. The problem is public perception that Republicans are just been unwilling to cooperate and change things.
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I mean do you really want to risk a major loss in 2008? These are the Senate Races I think Republicans will lose if the election where held today
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1) Alaska
Democrats got the best possible person to run for the Senate against a Republican with major ethical problems.
2) Colorado
This will be very close race, but the way Colorado has been trending of late and with a Democrat Governor, Senator, and State House and Senate I think it will probably push them over the edge.
3) Minnesota
I am utterly shocked at the poll numbers I have been seeing. Minnesota has not be afraid to elect colorful figures and Al Franken is one of those. THIS IS STILL A DEMOCRATIC STATE. Republicans have made some minimal gains but poll numbers are horrible for them.
4) New Hampshire
Even with McCain on top of ticket NH locals are electing Democrats over Republicans. The NH Governor is extremely popular which is hurting Republicans even more.
5) New Mexico
Is there any good signs for this seat?
6) Virginia
This one is over time to be saying Senator Mark Warner
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Are you saying that is the direction you want to go in? Take a short term loss by losing some key votes and hoping Bush Vetoes them and then say to the public you are different. You talk about not wanting Democrat Lite well people don't want Bush Lite either. Think long term would you rather save Colorado and Minnesota or would you sarcifice them for pride and an unwillingness to never have Democrats "win" a battle.
Lose the battle win the war remember that
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
What wonderful bills that the public was clamoring for did the evil Republicans obstruct? Since 2006, the Dems have been throwing up virulently left-wing stuff for no other reason than to pander groups like Moveon.org, labor unions, and trial lawyers. The Democrats have not offered anything in the way of compromise on anything.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Someimtes you let it go to a vote and fail that way or let president veto. Republicans, I believe, have use the fillibuster more times than any other time in history. You maybe completely correct that it is all virtually left-wing stuff but that doesn't mean Republicans should block everything. If it passes and people don't like it then Republicans can use it against them, if it doesn't Democrats can say Republicans are just obstructing. They don't have to say why they were just that they were.
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
I am genuinely happy with.
The congress as well, even though the reason seems to be that those retiring have decided to go out with a bang.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
As Lib/Dem resident of this district, I'd just like to give a hearty thanks to the IL GOP for continuing to be the laughingstock of state parties all over the country.
I'd also like to thank the NRCC for blowing off so much $$$ on this race.
Btw, did you all know that St. McCain was here fundraising for Oberweis, too?
Remember 50% of our state parties are below the median.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
...*defines* the term "below the median."
And the Mean.
And the Mode.
And the Mendoza line.
And Meverything else you can think of.
Our G.O.P. is found only on milk cartons
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
...the IL GOP had a pretty solid track record, holding the governor's mansion for many years between Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, and George Ryan.
Then staunch conservative Phil Crane's district went Democrat, and now Speaker Hastert's.
This loss DEFINES "demoralizing".
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
People who come here to troll and jab pointy sticks don't last long, sorry.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
N/T
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Many things seem to have contributed to this. Hastert was the face of the republican debacle of 2006. Obama certainly has the dems in IL stoked up. It was a special election.
Early in 2006, the republicans won a hard-fought congressional special election. That didn't mean that the House would stay republican in November of that year, mainly because the republican leadership & too many other republicans had "gone native" & acted much like the democrats that were cleaned out in 1994.
It's still several months to November, & the election results haven't been certified because the vote's not happened. Obama's luster is beginning to fade somewhat & Hillary is... well, she's Hillary. I believe, with the right candidates & the proper campaign strategy, republicans can pick up many of the seats that were lost in 2006.
I am actually looking forward to this election. There is an outstanding chance Hillary will be the nominee. While she will be harder to beat than Obama we will do well in the house and senate with her.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
No doubt about it. But keep in mind the turnout figures -
In the primaries for this race, the Republican candidates had a total of 74,935 votes for the two GOP candidates while the Democrats had a total of 66,497 votes for their three candidates. With just a few precincts left to report, Foster will get just above 50,000 votes while Oberweis will get around 45,000 votes. Now the overall totals are lower because there is no Presidential race this time and it is a weekend, but the Republicans managed to lose about 40% of the votes they got for their candidates in the Primary Election to the General Election.
This is definitely a seat that we can win back, but it will not be easy.
....and Lauzen gets to run in the fall. I'm not holding out hope because Oberweis has a Sekula-Gibbs-esque zeal to run in every single election in Illinois. This was the first time he actually won a primary.
This is an R +5 district. This is an extremely demoralizing loss for the GOP. The worst thing about this is not the seat itself necessarily, it's the fact that it will be a national story that the MSM will drub for weeks after. I can see the headlines now: "Democrats take former Speaker's seat" "Blue tide rising in the U.S.!" Blah blah blah
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I am actually very angry at Chris Lauzen right now. He lost the primary fair and square and decided to be a sore loser and never endorsed Oberweis. He should of been a good trooper and endorsed his parties nominee.
...but I think Oberweis pursued a scorched earth strategy in the primary and really trashed Lauzen and went negative. I understand why Lauzen was mad, but he still should have sucked it up. The bitter primary fight probably had a lot to do with this loss.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I'm glad Lauzen didn't back him. Now Foster can win in the fall and we have a good shot at taking it back in 2010. If Oberweis had won, he would have set back the county GOP for a generation.
Foster was running ads mentioning Lauzen and the primary fight and he still never endorsed Oberweis.
...this race was EXTEMELY nasty. Both Oberweis and Foster basically ran attack ads/negative ads almost exclusively. I think a lot of voters were turned off (hence the significant drop in the number of voters in the special election from the number in the primary).
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
This was one of the nastiest races I've seen. Being in Chicago, I got a lot of the TV and radio ads being played. Almost every ad I saw was negative. I've also never seen this many ads over a House seat.
would have gone blue in the General anyway. Now we can just write it off for the general. Now the RNCC can concentrate resources on races we have a shot of winning in November. I do not see this as something to get down about.
McCain '08
So does this mean the GOP will lose Weller seat, Kirk will lose, Roskam too, etc?
This is a GOP district the SurveyUSA poll indicated Obama had 49% approval in district but all the questions of voters indicated they opposed his Iraq war policy, immigration, tax cuts etc
This is the problem I find on this site you need to get mad cause how else will GOP get House back with losing these types of seats? Get mad!
...due to a combination of his ethical problems, and the fact that dumbass Tim Balderman won the primary and then dropped out.
Mark Kirk is probably safe, as is Roskam.
Believe me, I AM mad. It's the folks in the Illinois state GOP that need to be really mad. The good folks over there are either incompetent or not motivated. It's probably a combination of both.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...due to a combination of his ethical problems, and the fact that dumbass Tim Balderman won the primary and then dropped out.
Mark Kirk is probably safe, as is Roskam.
Believe me, I AM mad. It's the folks in the Illinois state GOP that need to be really mad. The good folks over there are either incompetent or not motivated. It's probably a combination of both.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...due to a combination of his ethical problems, and the fact that dumbass Tim Balderman won the primary and then dropped out.
Mark Kirk is probably safe, as is Roskam.
Believe me, I AM mad. It's the folks in the Illinois state GOP that need to be really mad. The good folks over there are either incompetent or not motivated. It's probably a combination of both.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
This is a Red district and McCain will win it in November. While the demographics are changing slightly, McCain is the perfect candidate for this Red district - Fiscal Conservative, Socially Reasonable.
Mark Kirk is going to be in a tough race he is facing same opponent he faced 2 years ago and its top spending race.
I am just angry I thought it would be close but Hastert machine would pull him through. This is just such a disgrace; how else do we get GOP majority back with losing seats like this?
Worse the NRCC lost probably 1/4 of its money when all is said in done on this race and they are pretty much broke as it it.
Tom Cole needs to step down from NRCC he has been a bad fundraiser and he has not recruited strong Republicans in many of these districts.
We're not going to change quarterbacks in the middle of the game.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
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The district is soldly R and he beat the best candidate the Dems had for the district in Tammy Duckworth (a disabled Iraq War vet). As for Kirk that is a swing district so he could be in trouble or he could be fine depending on what the political enviroment is like.
McCain '08
As someone from Illinois, I can tell you this is a big loss to the party. It's also a big shock to me. I'd have thought you were crazy if you told me a Democrat would be taking over this seat. It's been in Republican hands for over 30 years and Hastert was extremely popular there. I don't know if this was just an anamolly or a trend we'll see again in November.
As others have mentioned, I think Mark Kirk is going to be in trouble in November. Dan Seals made it a surprisingly close race in 2006 and the Dems have already started getting him out and about this time around.
It'd be sad too because I really like Rep. Kirk. He's done a lot for the area and is a real smart guy. He undestands foreign policy and economics better than most guys in Congress. It'd be a shame to see him get swept up in this mess in November.
I have & will vote straight GOP in every election this century, but the leadership of the IL state GOP doesn't want to win elections. John Kass of the Chicago Tribune has a story http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-kass07mar07,0,4795741.... that one of the leaders of the state GOP party (Bill Cellini) organized a fund raiser for Blagojevich. Bill Foster is as liberal as Durban, but he works very hard. At least half the leadership of the Il GOP could & should be indicted, convicted & put in jail. That is the only hope to revive the party in this state. I don't believe this loss says anything about the rest of the country.
I too have known for years that the Illinois GOP was inept, but that article is unbelievable. I can't believe that the state party cannot find better candidates to run.
I hope you're right about it not being indicative of the rest of the country.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
The bottom line is this loss is a moral and financial blow!
The Survey Usa Poll indicated the Gov has a disapproval rating around 71% in this district so all Oberweis had to do was align Foster to him.
What has been the reaction of Hastert to this loss? Has there been any signs Oberweis will drop out and GOP can have a replacement?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=15ba65f6-52ad-4e8...
Here is the Survey Usa Poll it has some key questions asked on current issue
The district wants Bush tax cuts made permanent (Foster opposes)
The district does not want cut and run in Iraq (Foster opposes)
The district wants hard line on immigration
The poll showed fav/unfav for Hastert/Obama/Gov/ and each candidate (Oberweis had an unfav of 49%)
The issues were on Republicans side in district they just didn't like Oberweis so they voted for personality which is a bit scary.
Considering the amount of money spent on the special election and the poor cash position of the NRCC, should the NRCC spend money trying to reclaim this seat in the general election or should they concede it? I'm not sure how they're going to prioritize funding for the many seats facing serious challenges from a well-funded Democratic party. Since they have already spent 20% of their cash-on-hand on this special election (and lost), should they invest more of their scarce cash in a rematch? And should the NRC invest money in House races or spend it on the presidential election?
I certainly don't have the answer - just curious what people's thoughts are on it.
In my view, the GOP goes after far too few D seats in the House and in the Senate. We need to recruit better, promote better (from state legislatures and from local communities), and run better campaigns. I know that sounds like a bromide seasoned with generalities, but it really does start at that simple a level: we'll lose (or, more correctly, fail to win) 100% of the races we don't contest.
and good works Republicans in congress are doing. Work on the party's image and help make it possible to elect Republicans. The state parties are ultimately the ones that should be handling what are in reality local elections.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
Also if they started doing something useful republicans would start donating again.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
The GOP has had poor recruitment this cycle. The GOP doesn't even have top tier candidates against people like Moore in KS, Mattheson UT, Holden PA, Pace OH, Edwards TX, the ND, SD, Arkansas races, even looks like Mahoney in FL getting free ride. While the Dems are not only targeting more of our open seats they are now going after more Republicans.
Its pathetic on Republicans part and I wish this site would get more active in this area (I try to do it with congressional updates but sometimes I feel there is no interest)
Red State this year will be bringing new features to add new emphasis to state leve politics.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
There's a difference between blogging/online punditry and actual grassroots activism. I have an interest in getting a good Republican to run against Zach Space in Ohio, but I live in St. Louis, and that job ultimate lays at the feet of local Ohio Republicans.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
for the next few years. We need to keep at least 44 R-Senators so Cloture Votes cannot be passed. If we start losing Cloture Vote in Senate we are in serious trouble as a Nation!!
Thats true but thats also a statement of defeat. Call me someone who hates to lose but I still think we can win back the House but its going to take some financial boosts to NRCC and many of these candidates.
Also the big thing is the GOP needs a reason for people to vote them back in and I have yet to hear it myself.
to the NRCC and with the RNC just being turned over to McCain, money will be a problem for the NRSC and NRCC. McCains Coat-tails are already a drag on money.
Also, with all the Republican Retirees/non re-electioners, we may lose another 15-20 seats in house and 4-5 Senate seats. The National Republican leader does not see the disgust us local level supporters do.
I give to RNC, NRCC, NRSC and I don't get why those who can afford it and believe in the cause wouldn't donate?
Including the belief, held by some, that their money is best put elsewhere, given those organizations' recent track record.
I have given a total of $1.00 to the RNC/NRCC/NRSC this year. That $1.00 is more than the McCain's chosen RNC Victory Chairman-Carly Fiorina has given in the past 8 years.
At least you and me both have been better givers than she has.
My giving has stopped to ANY Republican National Party. I will give to my Senator and Comgressman but I refuse to run it through the National Party.
If I were to give my hard-earned money, I'd have a hard time giving to a group like the NRSC who might just spend it to bus Democrats in to vote for Linc Chafee.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Well I just read online not one of the Arkansas Democrats even face a Republican this year (we held one of those districts for while too). Today was first day of filling so one could creep up but its things like this that make me question who is running the GOP in some of these areas and that Dean may be running the DNC right with his 50 state policy (there was a great article on it the other day in NYTimes).
What a sad state of affairs this is. The Republicans spent nearly a fifth of their dismal funds on a race in a reliable GOP district and still lose it in a district Bush overwhelmingly carried. Lets also add salt in our wounds by it being Hastert's seat.