MA-05:New Poll Shows Ogonowski Has Shot at Defeating Tsongas
By EaBo-Clipper Posted in 2007 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (21) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Promoted because this election is soon and winnable
The first general election poll for the MA-05 special congressional election is out. The Survey USA WBZ-TV poll is reporting that Lt. Colonel Jim Ogonowski (USAF Ret) is trailing Niki Tsongas by only 10 points with 34 days to go. WBZ-TV's John Keller has more to say:
First, the good news for Niki Tsongas. She not only has that 10-point lead, but she's reaping the harvest of a yawning gender gap.
In our Fast Track survey, Ogonowski has a commanding 13 point-lead among men, who tend to skew a bit more conservative. But Tsongas holds a whopping 32-point margin among women, surely in part due to excitement over the prospect of sending our first woman to Congress in 25 years.
"Make no mistake, this election will be a referendum on the presidency of George Bush," Tsongas told her supporters on primary night.
Now, the bad news for Tsongas.
Yes, voters in the 5th hold the current administration in low esteem, but they're every bit as fed up with the Democrat-controlled Congress.
Seventy-two percent of respondents to our survey say they disapprove of the job Congress is doing. And among those voters, it's a dead heat between Tsongas and Ogonowski, who has made anger at Congress the centerpiece of his candidacy.
In addition Ogonowski holds a lead amongst Unenrolled voters at 46%-39%. Unenrolled(independent) voters make up 51% of this district.
This race is winnable for Jim but he needs your help. If you live in New England you should be volunteering for Jim on weekends or at night making phone calls.
If you live in New England or not you should be donating to his campaign. He has been outraised by over a million dollars because Niki Tsongas is getting Tspecial interest money. To donate to Jim's campaign go here and give your credit card.
This race is for real. Help elect New England's second republican congressman!
If this district was only Kerry +7 in the 2004 presidential then it is not totally off the radar screen. An uphill climb yes, but its not like running an R against Charlie Rangel. Go Jim go!! Stealing a House seat in Massachusetts would be a huge and well-timed psychological boost.
Recommending your own diary is bad form, dude.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Niki Tsongas' vision for America is that Bush S*cks. I hate this, but I believe that this state is too locked up to do much about it.
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
Will a debit card work with the contribution thingy? Not that my $15 will make much of a difference, but that's all I can afford.
This site gets about 30,000 visitors a day. If half of them gave $15, Ogonowski would have $150K, enough to run a credible race. $15 makes a difference.
Ten points out with 30 days to go? I hate to put the damper on things, but that looks like a certain loss for Mr. O.
And somebody with name recognition like a Kennedy. And her husband is pretty much an icon who people think would have have been a GREAT President in 1980 but for the cancer that took him from us too soon. [hushed tones, dampened lights, soft organ music in the background] Like Bobby.
And the guy she's running against is retired military! Ugh. She should be 30 points ahead.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I am not saying she doesn't suck as a candidate...I'm just saying he "has a shot" is a slight exaggeration!!! :)
The 5th Congressional District in Massachusetts was solidly democrat for one reason. Marty Meehans 6 million dollar war chest. A challenger couldn't get through that, so many top tier challengers didn't bother. Why do you think Mr. Campaign Finance Reform raised so much money. He had to, to fend off an attack, because the electorate of the district are conservative. Marty ran as an anti-establishment candidate in 1992 and that's how he won against an incumbent Democratic Congressman. Besides Chuck McCarthy, who together with a libertarian in the race kept meehan to under 60% there has been no serious challenge to this seat due to monetary concerns. McCarthy ran a campaign with only $250k which was not enough to get his message out to voters. Mitt Romney in 2002 also brought out many casual voters who didn't normally vote. They pulled the lever for the name they knew.
This is all about GOTV. Jim Ogonowski has a tremendous shot at this.
If the diarist is correct and unaffiliated voters make up 51% of registered voters, is it fair to be using a sample with only 40% independents?
The breakdown here is 18-42-40 R-D-I. Can someone a little closer to the district determine if that's a realistic breakdown to expect in an off-year special election?
Seems to me that there may be a few too many Democrats and a few too few Independents, which would actually narrow the gap as Ogonowski leads with those voters.
Given that no Republican has gotten to even 40% in the last decade, this isn't a bad showing.
But I'll add a couple of things...
1) That's actually not bad for trying to use a small sample to get the partisan make-up of a CD
2) This is going to be a turn-out election (as are all specials) - and aren't partisans more likely to, well, turn out? (That's not good news for LTC O, by the way).
Of course, a little visit here might help fix that problem!
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
if you have contact with any possible 2008 Congressional candidates, tell them to run, because we're winning the majority back. The extreme-liberal Democrats are going down as long as the media fog is broken.
The Democrats can't get a clear lead in the Presidential race, clearly they will lose seats in Congress in 2008.
Excellent post. I will see what I can contribute budget wise.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
The gender gap in this poll is absolutely astonding. Tsongas gets 40% of male vote and 61% female, while Ogonowski gets 53% of the male vote and 29% of the female vote. I obviously know Dems tend to relatviely better with female voters and Republicans tend to do relatively better with male voters, but I don't recall ever seeing such a disparity as in this poll. What accounts for it here?
1) It's Massachusetts
2) MS. Nikki Tsongas
3) Did I mention it's Massachusetts?
Oh, and it's been a generation since there was a woman rep from MA (odd, no?).
But mostly, it's Massachusetts.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
You're probably right. A fourth that I suspect is a large factor is that Ogonoski has a military background. Still, it's a huge gap and I wonder whether there have been any things said or hot local issues that could have contributed to the gap.
But then again, logic rarely applies here in the People's Republic.
Less than the military background, that LTC Jimbo has an (R) after his name is more of a problem than anything else. Don't ask me to explain that one, though - it's like a battered-spouse thing the electorate has here with the Democrats.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
I figure that if I can pay $20 for a $200 million Mega Millions lotto ticket, then I can afford $20 for a shot at a congressional seat, even if the odds are only slightly better. :-)
- Too bad that Tsongas is actually likable. She stepped up and stated that Oganowski, whose brother was a pilot who died on 9/11, should have been invited to speak at the 9/11 ceremony yesterday. The Democratic hacks in power iced him out of the ceremony. It was poltics at its lowest form. Shameful. Tsongas just doesn't come across as bitter and weird like Kerry and some other moonbats in that delegation.
- Ogonowski has an extensive plan for national security and Iraq, but he is really running a three issue race -immigration, energy and spending. He's really trying to stake his campaign on these issues that Republicans can grasp, but also are important to many indpendents and old school Democrats. It will be an interesting blueprint for for 2008. Republicans strategists should watch closely.
I don't live in this district (I live in MA-9, Lynch) - but I do work there (Andover - nice 48-mile one-way commute!) and I get the real feeling LTC Jimbo might just steal one for us here.
Truth be told, this is still a pretty solid Dem district (Kerry +7) - but no one seems particularly excited about Tsongas (Aside: what is it with these liberals and their propensity of voting for women based in no small part on who they married?? COUGHhillaryCOUGH Oh well, moving on...) and the Demo congress is actually held in slightly lower regard than is GWB (and even these folks know GWB ain't in the ballot this year).
Time to get busy.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.