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If something close to my outcome happens then it will get interesting :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

CNN is reporting that Romney is going to the West Virginia State Convention to wrap up those delegates. If Romney does go to their convention, Romney takes the delegates.

Not just because I like Romney, but as a political junkie I am dying to figure out his strategy. I haven't seen any details about travel or ad releases. I'm suprised he's in WV. Good move if what you say is true though. An outright 'W' and some delegates.

He was in Denver yesterday. Really smart. He's got Utah and Mass locked and making a heavy play for the proportinal California. He can win Colorado outright and I think will. Perhaps throw WV into the 'W' column as well. Interesting, I suspect we'll see a jot down for soem quick local meidia in North Dakota, small, but winner take all and Montana.

ARG has Delaware at McCain 41, Romney 35 today, and the momentum is with Romney. I can't get my phone to stop ringing, mostly with Rudy refugees coming on board Team Mitt.

Dave Burris
Romney Delaware Steering Committee
Vice Chairman
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First State Politics

but he "ought" to do what he darned well pleases with his hard earned money. I think he is getting along just fine without financial planning advice from you, Gov. Huckabee, or Sen. McCain.

The greatest single cause of Atheism today is Christians who profess Jesus with their lips & then go and deny him by their lifestyle. That's what an unbelieving world simply finds..unbelievable -Brennan Manning

It's really amazing to me that so many conservatives have decided to let the mainstream media coronate our candidate. I've been harping on this for some time. The MSM is in the tank for Obama/McCain big time. The numbers speak for themselves.

If we take Rasmussen as an example, Romney is not out of it at all. It fits well with my optimistic assessment :)

MSM is ready to proclaim McCain the king, and then gleefully take him down for Obama. It's no secret.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

did very well in 2004 and 2006. This year, they have not been the most accurate. Their general polls have tilted more Republican and their primary polls have been more favorable to Fred and Romney than McCain.

I'm not saying they do it on purpose and they may end up being correct. But it is more likely that their likely voter screen is off. Other polls have McCain up 20-30 points. Either Rasmussen is on and the others are all off by a lot, or vice versa.

Looking at state-to-state polling, it's hard to see how it could be tied nationally. The math just doesn't add up.

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But I'll take a rolling 4 day average of likely voters as more relevant than some of the other polls that have been trumpeted or are even in RCPs averages.

A Fox poll of Registered Voters instead of likely voters? History shows that those polls tend to skew more toward liberal candidates because they oversample those 'casual' voters who get their news primarily through the MSM filter.

And what's up with NBC polling "Adults"? The fact that it shows McCain up is irrelevant: from a a philisophical standpoint, what organization does a poll in an election in which you sample people not even registered to vote? And why would RCP include such a worthless poll in their averages?

Not saying your point isn't valid but some of these polls leave me scratching my head.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

the biggest thing that catches my eye is comparing Rasmussen and Gallup's rolling average polls. You know Rasmussen's. Look at . Same goal (likely voters, rolling average), but wildly different numbers. I think Gallup's numbers match the state polling better, but maybe the state polls are mostly wrong. If I had to take a bet, I'd say Gallup is closer to reality, but it could be way off.

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Rasmussen seems to be the outlier in most states, and their McCain results seem to be consistently lower.

Like you said, maybe Rasmussen is right and the other polls are wrong. But Rasmussen predicted Florida 33-27 for Romney. Hmmmm?

"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus

and had it tied 2 days before the election. The 33-27 was from the weekend before prior to the Crist endorsement.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

I even took seriously at RCP were the Gallup and Rasmussen. Gallup seems to report larger swings whereas Ras tends to be more stable. Don't know who the outlier is but I'm wondering if the fact that no one's bothering to conduct state polls in some states Mitt's likely to be strong in, not to mention TX and Ohio, if that could be part of the obvious disconnect. Just a thought.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

Are CA GOP primary voters closer in their views to Schwarzennegger than Romney? Somehow I don't think Governator's endorsement adds anything to McCain in CA that he didn't have before.

And like I said, immigration is big among CA republicans and McCain's flip flopping on the issue does not reflect well on him.

The chance to win the state for Romney is real.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

... there are a lot of Hispanic voters in California as well, and a substantial minority of them vote Republican. Besides, while immigration gets the netroots riled up, can you point to a single primary contest so far where that has been the decisive issue? And then, of course, there are the polls, those pesky, uncooperative polls.

Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me

I thought the diarist was clear this was a "best case" scenario. He said there was a 10-15% chance of it happening. I think it may be more like 5%, but that's a quibble. I think he is saying, McCain is ahead of this right now but if it changes in Romney's direction, this is where he could get.

It's kind of the RomMax outcome.

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... so perhaps there is a "chance" in the minimal sense of the word. But if the polls mean anything at all, it's very hard to see Super Tuesday turning out anything like this. I think the true measure of how minimal Romney's chances are is suggested by the number of "goodbye cruel world" and "anybody but McCain" diaries being posted around here.

Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me

I did say my predictions were optimistic, though unlikely. Romney might very well be done but why should his supporters give up before the race is over while there is still chance.

Huckabee is on the other hand really done.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

Your optimistic analysis seems to worry/irritate some of the McCain fans (and at least one Huckabee fan) who immediately become unable to read anything else in your diary once they see the word "victory" regardless of whether it is preceded by the words 'possible' or 'unlikely'.

An unfortunate result of the last 40 years of public education, I guess.

Under their logic system, the Patriot's win is inevitable today, so all the Giants fans might as well go home and hang it up.

I don't think Romney will take the nomination, I'm still not sure his victory is the best for the GOP and America, but I am not happy with McCain, in spite of all of Adam's great posts. I'm also not sure his victory is the best for the GOP and America - in my gut I feel it is not.

However, I will vote for him or Romney in Nov.

I think your analysis is great and as this is SuperBowl Sunday, I just remember that old chestnut "On any Given Sunday..."

So in that spirit:

"On any given Tuesday..."

The greatest single cause of Atheism today is Christians who profess Jesus with their lips & then go and deny him by their lifestyle. That's what an unbelieving world simply finds..unbelievable -Brennan Manning

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But I was a bit rushed and didn't examine it as close as I could've. I am actually on a vacation and took out a few hours to look at the states to make myself feel better with an optimistic prediction :)

Seriously, thank you for pointing the flaws out.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

"Rally around McCain" Well Said. Donate this weekend.

There are McCain bloggers on here who make good points but I'm weary of those who wish to coronate a candidate based on 8% of the GOP voting. I am only supporting Romney reluctantly because my top 5 are gone but this worshiping of polls, and desire to have 6 states choose our nominee is getting tiresome. Can we please vote and then decide? Such shilling just loses your credibility.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

That's what I was gonna say. Your predictions are hilariously slanted toward Romney.

You can pretty much take the total you have for Romney, cut away half of it, and give it to McCain. Unless something major changes in the next few days, it's gonna be a total massacre.

John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"

The main kink in this and most "Romney has a chance" analysis is that every piece of data we have shows Huck voters going to McCain. The FoxNews poll is the most recent. But the exit polls have been consistent as well. Rudy people split evenly between the two, but Huck supporters go McCain by 20 points.

If Huck drops, McCain jumps over 50% in most 2/5 states.

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Rasmussmen? Rasmussen had him winning Florida easily. Rasmussen has been wrongly favoring Romney for the last 5 states and it has been wrong.

Romney lied about Fred getting out of the race. Influential Fred supporters have not forgotten. Tennessee does not like mandatory health care. Tennessee does not like people who take away their guns. Tennessee does not like liars.

with momentum for McCain (duly noted in their assesment of the race)

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

Speaking of things people in TN don't like Smokymtman, we don't like activist judges. McCain thwarted conservatives attempts to get our SCOTUS, and appellate judges through when we had the numbers to do it. It took many election cycles to put us in a position to put a lot of our constructionist judges on the bench and McCain torpedoed our efforts! Look at how few judges we have gotten to put on the bench after 7+ years! Tennesseean's don't want to be taxed more. McCain/Lieberman would surely provide more taxes.

We Tennesseean's want people in our lives that will "git 'er done", and not arrogant politicians that will sit around patting themselves on the back for doing nothing and refusing to listen to our voices.McCain's amnesty program was brutal,elitist and WRONG on so many levels. McCain is a hard- headed, mean-spirited Washington insider and he needs to be forced to the back of the bus!

God Help our country if we do not pick up our heads and vote for the Anti-McCain candidate Romney on Tuesday!

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I expect McCain to lose Alaska not because of that but because his opposition to ANWAR and I was shocked Sen Murkowski endorsed Romney yesterday when its almost conclusive John will be nominee.

Informative and useful. You were clear about the assumptions you were making. It was very well done. And much more useful than a 14th installment in the "McCain is the anti-Christ" series that some other diarists are participating in.

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I've done my share of McCain bashing. I am not a fan. But I love the horserace and I am a pure political junkie so doing this was fun.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

You are perhaps the most courteous McCain supporter on this site (of those who post and comment frequently).

I don't read everyone's comments (limited time), but of all of his supporters on this site, you are the only one who has helped to reduce my concerns on him as a candidate. There are surely many other McCain supporters here who have made it out of puberty, but none comes immediately to mind.

Thank you, you deserve an award.

As to the rest, quite frankly, your caustic in-the-face sarcasm is a real turn off both for you as contributors and for the candidate you support.

Your abrasive 'FU' attitude and your petty digs on others perfectly emulate the guy you shill for.

The greatest single cause of Atheism today is Christians who profess Jesus with their lips & then go and deny him by their lifestyle. That's what an unbelieving world simply finds..unbelievable -Brennan Manning

Note Adam's comments about Rasmussen's trend this year. A Survey USA poll from a the 30th-31st shows it at 55-21 McCain.

Even if Romney has momentum, McCain has the Giuliani organization in NY and the backing of the state party, and enough of a lead that Romney, momentum or no, won't be able to close the gap. Since it is WTA, a close second is of no help in the delegate game (and delegates have been Romney's mantra since losing IA - he needs delegates).

Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me

I did not have enough time to go through all the rules and thus my numbers are of course not exact, nor do they necessarily reflect the true rules. And of course I used proportional for anything that was not statewide WTA - but that could still be somewhat accurate if the races are close, which they are in the really contested states like CA.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

_Romney will benefit from the WTA by congressional district in Alaska and perhaps in TN, again being optimistic._

You are not so much being optimistic as ill-informed. Alaska only has one congressman, so the notion of WTA by district doesn't really apply. TN has a weird mix of proportional and WTA at district level. It is proportional except when one candidate gets over 50% then WTA.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

International Editor of

Even though I got the information wrong, my point was that Romney could get more delegates in those states than are allocated to him under this scenario.

Also he is doing well enough in Georgia that he could win most of those delegates.

Thanks for correcting me though.

TN's system is unusual, and very difficult to call. Without district by district polling, it is hard to know. Alaska, you are right. I am not sure exactly how the state and district (presumably state district) conventions work, but it is a closed caucus, and McCain has not generally done well in closed votes. There is a real possibility that Romney could get a narrow victory and win all the delegates.

From the figures quoted in the OP, Romney has very little chance of doing as well as the OP suggests in Georgia. Probably no delegates at all. Of course, if the polling is out of date or wrong, then things change. A relatively small victory in the aggregate vote (for either candidate) could easily deliver virtually all the delegation.

For a couple of illustrations of the difference between WTA by district and proportional allocation, consider the Electoral College. Colorado considered adopting proportional allocation of its EC delegation - a very weird choice for a medium-sized swing state. In all normal elections ('84 and '92 are the recent exceptions) Colorado's nine votes would have been allocated 5 to the winner and 4 to the loser. The 'win bonus' would have been 1 vote. This is less than Wyoming where it is 3 (the whole delegation) or, more realistically, New Hampshire, where winning by a single vote gives you the whole delegation of 4.

By contrast, two states actually do allocate one EV to the winner of each congressional district plus a bonus of two of winning the state. But in practice neither Maine nor Nebraska has ever split its vote. Bush carried all the districts in Nebraska and Kerry carried them all in Maine.

The larger the state, the more proportional a district level allocation is likely to be. I believe Bush would have won 18 EVs from California in 2000 and 19 in 2004 if this system had been used there. A proportional allocation would have been more likely to deliver around 23 or 24 votes. Using the district system, Kerry would have won a 2:1 majority for 55% of the vote.

Unlike Colorado, California, New York, and Texas should seriously consider splitting their delegations. Although the win bonus for California is currently huge, it is usually not worth fighting for. Unlike Colorado, the state is not usually close. A determined effort by Republicans might push the vote from 43% to 48% and the bonus for that under winner take all is nothing. The three biggest states are therefore ignored in presidential campaigning except in unusual years and except for the purposes of handing round the begging bowl.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

International Editor of

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You can't afford the price of free corn.

tried to figure out maine caucuses, had to give up. Thay caucus yesterday, today, tomorrow...but no delegates are awarded, it's what is called a 'Beauty contest'. delegates awarded later, or something. High turnout, big win for Mitt!! he gets 50+ %.

I'd be happy to put these 21 delegates (or whatever) in Mitt's column. As Maine goes, so goes...Massachusetts.

with a low chance of it happening... As of this moment. It assumes serious Romney momentum. The poll numbers are real of course. In many of the states, McCain lead is not commanding. McCain has not campaigned in most of those states. Another thing is, McCain was campaigning in TN today. TN has Romney very close to McCain - I'd say McCain is worried.

I am tired of people surrendering right on cue to the MSM's coronation of McCain. Let's wait and see. Only a few more days left. The MSM narrative is trying to suppress the vote.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

although I admit, I went and found it after I asked. :)

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I'm starting to feel bad for the jabs your taking tonight! At least your sticking to your guns. BTW, do you have a bio posted anywhere on redstate?

Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.

-White Goodman

But FWIW, I'm a law student currently but an economist at heart.

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keep McCain from getting the nomination.

But not Howie Mandell.

I hate that guy.

Go, Mitt, go!!!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR