Party switchers on November 8?

By ericdondero Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

I'm picking up on some murmerings from Capitol Hill sources that the Post-Nov. 8 wheeling and dealing has already begun. Intense speculation as to who might be a likely Party Switcher is occuring in some chambers and back-rooms on The Hill.

Target Number One? Congressman Gene Taylor of MS. Taylor, according to Pundit and Fox News Contributor Michael Barone, has said that he would "abstain" instead of voting for a Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Barone is now predicting a net 2 seat loss for the GOP in the House. In such a scenario, just 1 single Party switcher and an abstainer could keep control for the GOP.

Who could that Party Switcher be?

Nick Lampson of Texas perhaps??

Lampson is running in a 61% Republican District, TX CD-22 (south Houston, Sugarland, NASA-area). Current polls have Lampson at 34%, Libertarian Bob Smither at 25% and Republican write-in Shelly Sekula-Gibbs at 11%. There are rumors of a late game pull-out by Sekula-Gibbs, and backing of Smither to save the seat from the Dems. (Smither has pledged to vote for a Republican for Speaker if elected). However, if that doesn't materialize this heavily Republican District will go to the Democrat on Nov. 7.

Lampson is a smart guy. He will quickly realize that he'll be the Number One target in the entire Nation for a GOP pick-up in 2008. Further, Lampson likes to fashion himself as a "Moderate" Democrat. Even more, Texas has a tradition of Dem to Republican Party switchers like Greg Laughlin CD-14.

If Lampson were to switch to the GOP, and Taylor were to abstain, with a net 2 seat loss, the Republicans could still keep control of the House.

And that's not even considering other Moderate Dems who could also be targetted.

Or, another more likely scenario, Gene Taylor or another Southern Dem could emerge as a "compromise choice" for Speaker and shared control.

One things for sure. It's very unlikely that we'll know which Party actually controls the lower Chamber for days, possibly weeks after the election on Nov. 7.

Note - Eric Dondero is a former 6-year Congressional Staffer from Texas.

If the House is 230-205 after the election, as it would be if 3 Ds replace 2 Rs and Sanders, why would we need a switcher?

If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.

I think he meant to say that Barone is predicting a Democratic win by 2 seats. I believe that is a 16 or 17 seat pickup. The House would be 219-217 or something like that. Then the party-switching speculation will begin.

Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

I think i read yesterday where taylor said he would not switch parties and would vote for a democratic speaker. Anyone else hear this anywhere?

Where is this famous poll showing Smither ahead of Sekula-Gibbs? I thought that had already been debunked here.

Besides, it shouldn't be too hard for TX-22 Republicans to write the six-syllable name in. Since there's also a special election to replace DeLay for this year's lame-duck session, where Sekula-Gibbs does appear on the ballot, voters need to copy her name from one part of the ballot to the other. The problem is to let them know they need to do it.

I'm not sure there will be many party-switchers if the Democrats get the majority. But there may be a few freshmen Dems winning by small margins in swing districts who might fear becoming one-term wonders if they vote for Pelosi as Speaker. If the Dems get only a slight majority, Pelosi might not get her new drapes--it may be curtains for her.

The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.

It was the useless poll showing hyphen-lady up over lampson by 11 that was debunked.

Best be aware of RINO's switching to the dems and giving them control. Most of those moderate dems are new, and I can't see newly elected reps switching before taking office. I could easy see some NY GOPers are others switching to the Dems and keep their committees if its a close call.

Particularly Lampson. He's a Tax Collector from Beaumont. He's anything but a limited government Republican.

But I do think it's likely he'd entertain a switch.

Late breaking news... RNC has written off this seat for Sekula-Gibbs, which clears the way for all Republicans to now back Smither!

Eric Dondero

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