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By GOPaisano Posted in 2008 — Comments (32) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

For the past couple weeks, we've had a lot of diaries touting one or another poll that shows Huckabee surging somewhere or another. Here is one example. Or here. Or here.

Understandably, many Huckabee supporters are getting excited, and just as understandably, many skeptical commentators point out that you can't look at an individual poll and turn it into a trend.

So, with the help of polling average from our friends at Real Clear Politics, I'd like to step back, take a breath, and see where Mike Huckabee is right now.

Nationally
First of all, national polls are fickle. Way back when in July, Fred Thompson was actually leading. That changed quickly. So I’m not so quick to buy into the “Huckabee in 1st place” narrative stemming from the one Rasmussen poll putting him one point ahead of Giuliani.

Looking at the average, he is a solid second and will probably continue to trend upward for a bit. However, Giuliani is not consistently decreasing, and therefore will stay on top barring a sea change.

Now, how much does national polling mean right now? Not a lot. It’s interesting to see that Thompson and McCain are on a downward trend (Thompson more so), and Romney is trending up a little bit. Overall, this is a fluid race. Huckabee’s upward trend does reflect his increased media coverage, but since the most recent coverage is fairly negative, I’m going to point to his YouTube debate performance as well. (You’ll note that the polling pre-debate had him at 12 or lower, while all post debate polling has him 16 or higher.)

Iowa
I call B.S. on that 39 to 17 Newsweek Poll for Huckabee. The polling sample is way too small, and it’s too much of an outlier. However, it’s not like the past few polls had been encouraging for Romney. See here. Basically, Romney and Huckabee are tied, with a slight edge to Mike. (The graph on that page is incredible for Mike though.)

However, we still have a month, and Thompson is going ahead and moving to Iowa. The danger to Huckabee is that Thompson will split those…for lack of a better term, “Chuck Norris voters”. (The Midwest doesn’t use the term “good ol’ boys”, do they?) Now, of course, Thompson might not hurt Mike. Mike has shown in polling to have the most committed supporters (i.e. “Not likely to change mind”) so he could end up hurting Romney or Giuliani. Who knows? (I don't think Mitt is in great shape if he comes in third in Iowa. Still could win NH, but it would be painful. Second at this point would be fine, though.)

New Hampshire
Now. If played poorly, this state could kill Huckabee. Mike is not going to leave this state with momentum. He is fourth in polling, although only second in InTrade betting. That reflects the belief in an Iowa Bounce, but with only five days between primaries and Mitt likely to get the #2 Iowa spot, that’s not likely. Huckabee’s most encouraging poll came from Rasmussen showing him in a statistical three-way tie for second, but most other polls have shown him around 10. In fact, this is the ONLY place Huckabee has not gotten a post-debate bounce. Whatever he’s selling doesn’t sell here.

Michigan and Nevada
These are big delegate states (well, Michigan is), but no one is treating them like a big deal. Accordingly, we don’t have much by way of polling. Here’s all we have Michigan and Nevada. It looks like Huckabee jumped from 9% to 21% in Michigan for (barely) first place and from 6% to 23% in Iowa for second to Romney. What does it really mean? Without more polls, we don’t really know. It’s fair to say he has a lot more support than he did before, following national trends. If we were to take these polls at face value, Romney has also gained a decent amount in Nevada, and Giuliani and Thompson both caved in entirely in these states (although Giuliani is still a Michigan contender.)

South Carolina
This one I don’t understand. Before the debate, polling was wild. Giuliani and Romney were tied, then one poll had Rudy at 9 to Romney’s 17, then another poll had Giuliani leading. And now, the two post-debate polls have Huckabee leading by 6 and 7.
South Carolina is really unpredictable right now, and I want to see more polling in the state. However, this was always a state that should have been friendly to the southern-fried Baptist preacher, and the rise makes some sense. But it’s just SO drastic, and in fact, because his polling was so low pre-debate, he and Romney are still tied statistically. Romney is still a strong contender, mind you, and Thompson seems to be pushing Giuliani away from the third place spot. I’m not sure what to make of this.

Florida
This is erratic polling at its worst, and I can only attribute it to polling different parts of a large state. Huckabee is a solid second in two of the most recent polls, while he is third and fourth in the other two. Well, the one where he’s fourth is the oldest—but it’s the same time as one of the second place ones!! The other candidates are similarly all over the place, so although I feel confident saying “Huckabee is third”, I have no clue whom he’s in front of. Giuliani is still leading by a lot though and showing no signs of that overall downward trend.

Head to head
Rasmussen is really the only one covering Huck head-to-heads, because his rise is so recent. The three polls are here and here.
Basically, Huckabee is statistically tied with Clinton (45 to her 46) but falls behind both Obama and Edwards by 4 points. This is the EXACT opposite of Giuliani, who polls much closer with Obama and Edwards than he does with Clinton. As recent diaries have pointed out, Mike is only second to John McCain in terms of challenging Clinton in Ohio (although McCain actually leads with 51%) and for obvious reasons is the only Republican that would beat her today in Arkansas.

Now, we do have to understand that Huckabee hasn’t faced a lot of scrutiny. But as of right now, it seems like people are more willing to consider an anti-establishment Republican if he’s running against an establishment Democrat. I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion, but that’s very consistent with how my moderate/left-of-center friends feel about Huckabee. They’re only open to him if Clinton wins the nomination.

Conclusion
To say that Huckabee is leading the GOP field is false. To say that he has narrowed this to a two-man race is false. To say that this is swiftly becoming a three-man race between Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney…not entirely unfounded.

In a lot of ways, Huckabee is where Thompson was when he was weighing his options. However, by being in the race and having worked his way up, Huckabee’s position is less tenuous. He definitely has a chance at being the nominee—IF AND ONLY IF he survives New Hampshire. For his sake, I would suggest he invest strongly in trying for third.

His win scenario is this: First in Iowa, third in New Hampshire, first or second in Michigan and Nevada, first in South Carolina, and second in Florida. This is possible. The scrutiny is coming however, especially on Wayne Dumond and his past tax record. These issues will inevitably hurt him, and may very well deny him the nomination.

Put in perspective, his prospects are not great, but they’re good. He’s in a nice place, but we need to wait for some more validation in polling. Simply put, I wouldn’t bet on his victory, but I darn well would not bet against it.

UPDATE:

There are four new Mason-Dixon polls and they bear me out pretty well, if not perfectly. I called Giuliani's death too early in Nevada--he's leading again, but Romney and Huckabee are a solid 2nd and 3rd. Huckabee's numbers were inflated in Iowa, but mason-Dixon still gives him a 12-point lead, giving him a much greater slight edge than I predicted. Otherwise, I called Huckabee cementing a #1 spot in South Carolina and having no motion at all in New Hampshire (going up one point is not motion).