gpasman's blog
Posted at 12:13pm on Jan. 12, 2008 Some thoughts on the supposed Reagan coalition crackup
By gpasman
Lately, there are quite a lot of articles about the supposed Reagan coalition crackup. Ed Rollins, the Huckabee campaign chair, has discussed it. David Brooks, the resident conservative at the New York Times, with past stints at both National Review and the Weekly Standard, has argued it. Michael Gerson, President George W Bush's head speachwriter, has written a book about a new conservative coalition, etc. However, there are just as many articles and discussions as to why it is important to keep the coalition together.
Posted in Policy — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:26pm on Jan. 10, 2008 Why South Carolina again will decide who the Republican Nominee will be
By gpasman
Why South Carolina again will decide who the Republican Nominee will be-
First, the winner of the South Carolina primary has always been selected the Republican nominee for President. So, the past has been an excellent guide.
Second, for nearly all of the candidates in this year's race, they NEED a win in South Carolina. Also, if the candidates do win in South Carolina, it will give them the momentum they need to win the nomination. I will show this by a review of each of the candidates and where they stand. I support Fred, but for each of the candidates, I give an opinion on why they can lose and why they can win in South Carolina, and how that will help them in the rest of the states.
Posted in Elections — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 4:51pm on Jan. 9, 2008 A non-primary blog! Katrina victims sue USA for over $3 Quadrillion
By gpasman
Here is the link to the story.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22571349/?GT1=10755
A couple comments.
1) There are 489,000 claims for a total of $3,014,170,389,176,410 out of all of the Katrina lawsuits.
2) One individual is suing the USA for $3 Quadrillion. The US GDP is $13.2 Trillion. This individual is suing the USA for more than the whole world's GDP. The lawyer who filed that should be disbarred. Also, I am imagining Dr Evil with this figure (with Tim Robbins as president telling Dr Evil, why not ask for a trillion dollars!).
Posted in The Courts — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 10:13am on Jan. 7, 2008 Why the Fair Tax will not be 23%
By gpasman
Since Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus, there has been more talk of the Fair Tax. Late last week, Huckabee was on Hannity and discussed it.
However, I do have one point to discuss about the fair tax. It will not be 23%. The reason is that the state sales tax needs to be added to the 23%. Also, not just the state sales tax, but the state income tax as well. I cannot imagine any state keeping an income tax, when the federal government gets rid of the income tax. This would be too tough for the state to manage, and for employers to keep the paperwork for a 5% to 10% tax.
Posted in Taxes — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 10:39am on Jan. 4, 2008 A review of the Iowa Caucus results (how good were my predictions?)
By gpasman
I have to admit, I wish I called Hillary in 3rd place. That would have been great. Anyways, I thought I would review the results, compared to my predictions, as well as the RCP avg and the Ames results.
Iowa Results
Huckabee 34
Romney 26
Fred 13
McCain 13
Paul 10
Rudy 4
I had predicted
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/gpasman/2007/dec/19/prediction_time
Huckabee 32
Posted in Elections — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:31pm on Dec. 31, 2007 I will be watching 3rd place in Iowa
By gpasman
I know everyone is expecting another Fred piece, with that title. Actually, it is for both parties, 3rd place might have the best chance to win the nomination.
First, please take a look at the Iowa chart for each party on RCP-
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republica...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democrati...
Posted in Elections — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:25pm on Dec. 27, 2007 Iowa Caucus is one week away
By gpasman
With the Iowa Caucus one week away, I thought a good review of past results would be enlightening.
The data comes from wikipedia results, with links below
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ames_Straw_Poll
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Caucus
Also, I know some of my blogs are quite long, so I am trying to streamline the data, but fyi.
Basically, I am going to show the results of the Ames poll, and then the Caucus results, and compate them, for the following contested Republican races of 1988, 1996, and 2000.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:17pm on Dec. 27, 2007 AK- Senate --- Stevens has a Primary Challenger
By gpasman
CQ Politics has a story announcing that Ted Stevens has a primary challenger. The link to the story is
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002649504
The highlights-
David Cuddy is a wealthy real estate developer who ran against Stevens in the primary in 1996, and spent $1,000,000 in that race, and lost (obviously, if he is challenging this year). In 1996, Republicans were less likely to throw out their own, after winning control of the Senate just 2 years prior to that race.
However, now, the only way this seat is a possible win for Republicans, is if Stevens does not run. This primary candidate has spent a million in the past, and most likely will do so again. In this year, with so many Republican seats to defend, a self financing candidate is very important.
If Stevens does survive a primary, then one of the candidates the Democrats many nominate is Ray Metcalf, who founded the Alaska Republican Moderate Party. So, there is a significant chance that liberal and moderate Republicans may go to the Democrat side if Stevens is in the race, as they may feel that they would be electing a moderate Republican, instead of the usual liberal that Democrats nominate, and also making sure Stevens, with all of his ethical problems, is defeated. We do not want that, so a strong challenger to take out Stevens would be a significant help.
Now, I do not know any of the positions of Cuddy. I know there are some Redstate bloggers who are much more familiar with Alaska politics. Any information would be very helpful.
Posted in 2008 | Alaska | David Cuddy | Ted Stevens — Comments (34) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 2:45pm on Dec. 21, 2007 Why I wish Mark Sanford was running for President
By gpasman
Yesterday, the State, South Carolina's main paper, had an article describing Governor Mark Sanford's tax plan. Currently, the state has been trying to increase the cigarette tax by $0.07 to $0.37, and Mark Sanford wants to use this increase in funds to the state by proposing an optional flat tax. Currently, the states top income tax rate is 7%. There are deductions available in the state. Mark Sanford is proposing an optional 3.4% flat tax. That is more than a 50% reduction in the top tax rate. Sounds like a great tax plan, especially since it is optional, for those doing better with all of the deductions, you can use them, but for the rest of us, who want a low rate, without all of the rules, deductions, mess of the normal tax, this is a great idea.
Posted in Elections — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 10:35am on Dec. 21, 2007 A review of two polls...
By gpasman
A follow up on my blog yesterday about Iowa polls and comparing them to the Democrat Iowa caucus of 2004.
When I review polls, I usually review either a poll average, such as the RCP poll average, or compare the same polling firm over time with the same polls. If you are comparing two different polls, you may notice trends,but it is harder to notice trends, and harder to notice an outlier, and it is kind of like comparing apples and oranges.
Posted in Elections — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 4:17pm on Dec. 20, 2007 Polls 1-2 months before Iowa in 2004
By gpasman
I did some searching, and here are some poll results from December 2003 and January 2004, before the Iowa Caucus. The Democrats had multiple candidates who ahd a shot. Here are the polls-
Dec 2003 Pew Poll
Dean -29%
Gephardt-21%
Kerry-18%
Edwards-5%
Dec 2, 2003 Zogby Poll
Dean-26%
Gephardt-22%
Kerry-9%
Edwards-5%
Jan 5-7, 2004 Survey USA Poll
Dean-29%
Gephardt-22%
Kerry-21%
Edwards-17%
Posted in Elections — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 1:38pm on Dec. 20, 2007 What is it about Huckabee's campiagn?
By gpasman
First, his supporters carried the argument comparing Huckabee with Reagan. Reagan raised taxes as governor, so Huckabee gets a pass for all of the tax increases he has had as governor. When multiple people refuted this, then the Huckabee supporters claimed Reagan would not have been able to be elected, as he does not meet all of the conservative standards fully. This was basically a rehash of the first point, and was also refuted.
Posted in Elections — Comments (26) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:04pm on Dec. 19, 2007 Prediction Time
By gpasman
We are about 2 weeks until the Iowa Caucus, and now is a good time to start making predictions.
First, I want everyone to know that I support Fred, and that I have written a few blogs about him on redstate. However, I am going to be realistic about the results (such as I do not see him winning Iowa, and having Fred finish below Ron Paul in New Hampshire.)
Second, I do believe there is a bit of Fred surge in the past week or so. Fred did excellent at the debate, when he would not raise his hand. Finally he is having a moment like the michael moore video, and some of the other comments he had made before he officially announced in september. This is what we were expecting. Fred is starting to get press about this, such as the Yepsen article in the Des Moines Register, and comments on both the Weekly Standard and National Review websites. Also, Fred will be in Iowa until the caucus, except for Christmas day.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (46) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:57pm on Dec. 17, 2007 2008 & 2012
By gpasman
I recently wrote a review of each region for the upcoming elections. I thought I would follow up on that with a focus on the electoral votes for the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
First, I will look at the 2008 election, and compare three lists of states: states which were decided by less than 5% of the popular vote in that state, states which were decided with between 5% and 10% of the popular vote in that state, and states which were decided by just over 10% of the popular vote in those states. I include just a few states which are very close to that 10% point. Basically, this is a review of any of the states with any potential to switch in the upcoming presidential election.
Posted in Elections — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:08pm on Dec. 14, 2007 What to do with Bill Clinton---
By gpasman
If the Democrats win the presidency in 2008 (still a big if in my mind) the only two with any chance of winning are Hillary and Obama. If either wins, expect US Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens to retire, as he would know a liberal would replace him.
If Hillary wins, she will want to get rid of Bill. Even though she is desperate for his help now (as shown by any problems her campaign has, they send out Bill to handle the problem) she would want to think she is running the show, and not Bill. If Bill Clinton was nominated to the US Supreme Court, she gets Bill out of the White House, and it is a job Bill would actually take.
Posted in Elections — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Read More »
