GreatDarkSpot's blog
Posted at 1:19am on Jan. 30, 2008 Report From McCain's Victory HQ in FL
By GreatDarkSpot
Wow - that's all I can say. I just got back from Sen. John McCain's FL Victory party down in Miami. That place was just electric. Everybody in that room felt that McCain won the nomination tonight and it showed. The buzz started to grow as the early results came in and it just got bigger. Many of the early returns came from places where Mitt Romney was strongest but McCain held a narrow lead and as some of his strong points started to report his numbers grew.
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Posted at 8:43pm on Jan. 26, 2008 FL Gov Crist Endorses McCain
By GreatDarkSpot
McCain has had a good day down here in FL. Gov. Charlie Crist has decided to endorse John McCain. This is not a small thing - while he doesn't have quite the popularity that Jeb Bush did, Crist is very popular in the state. This is going to give McCain a needed boost of momentum in the last couple of days. Adding this to the endorsement of Sen. Martinez, McCain is turning into the final leg with a real kick.
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Posted at 9:13pm on Jan. 24, 2008 McCain gets Importaint FL Fredhead
By GreatDarkSpot
John McCain has picked up a valuable endorsement in Florida. Former FredHead Congressman Jeff Miller who represents the Florida panhandle has come out in favor of John McCain. I had been assuming that Huck would do best in the panhandle, but the more numbers I see out of there in the polls, it looks like McCain is going to win it. Miller is quite conservative so this will help counter the spin that McCain isn't.
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Posted at 12:05pm on Jan. 24, 2008 My Rundown on FL
By GreatDarkSpot
Here are my thoughts on Florida. I think it’s going to be a close race but it doesn’t look like it will be a four man race anymore, as fun and interesting as that would be. It’s shaping up to be a two man race for first and a two man race for third. Florida is a big state with lots of different regions, and I’ll go through them one by one, but here are some general thoughts.
As you all know, it’s a closed primary. The FL GOP is conservative, though not as much as SC, but certainly more so than NH. This does benefit Romney, and to the extent that he’s playing, Huckabee. Other than some specific places up north, no one is going to be put off by the fact that Romney came out of the northeast given that most of the people in Florida came from somewhere else also. However, there are two large groups in Florida that play right into McCain’s strength. One is veterans and military. The number that gets thrown around is that 40% of the GOP voters in FL have ties to the military. Not quite sure how they determined that, but obviously that’s good for McCain. The military vote is not going to be monolithic, but there is no doubt that McCain will win it.
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Posted at 11:32am on Jan. 23, 2008 Mitt Sings 'Who Let The Dogs Out' - to Pander?
By GreatDarkSpot
By now we've all seen the awkward video of Mitt Romney singing 'Who Let The Dogs Out' and everyone just assumed that he was trying to relate to the people he was posing with. But let me bring up something no one else has considered...
South Florida is home to a fair amount of people who have family ties the The Bahamas (including, btw, me). Parts of Miami were founded by Bahamians (such as Coconut Grove) and Key West actually used to be part of the Bahamas many years ago. As you might be able to guess from their name, the Baha Men are from the Bahamas - something everyone with ties to the Bahamas knows well and feels a sort of embarrassed pride about. So was Mitt pandering to the Bahamian-Americans? We'll know for sure if he finds a way to mention another famous Bahamian, Sir Sidney Poitier!
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Posted at 11:15am on Jan. 23, 2008 'Stormin' Norman' Schwarzkopf to Endorse McCain in FL
By GreatDarkSpot
The hero of the Gulf War is adding his name to the list of people who support John McCain for President. This wasn't expected and will give McCain another boost in FL which has a very high number of vets and military related families. At some point today or tomorrow, I'm going to write up a more detailed analysis of FL but in the short term let me say this is going to help him continue to eclipse Rudy. Rudy tried to position himself as the security candidate and I would say he's now lost that spot almost entirely to McCain. Like McCain, Scwarzkopf was an early critic of Rumsfelt - a fact that is sure to get brought up. It's also worth noting that Stormin' Norman was lobbied to run for the senate in FL, though he didn't want to do it, so he's got a bit of popularity in the state. McCain is going to get a lot of good, free press out of this in the state - and stack this up against Mitt Romney's most notable act in the state - trying to sing Who Let The Dogs Out!
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Posted at 10:43pm on Jan. 20, 2008 McCain Sweeping FL
By GreatDarkSpot
Endorsements that is. Oh, I don't think that endorsements by themselves are worth a huge number of votes. I suppose that there are a few people who vote because of what their newspaper says on their editorial page, but I haven't met them. But what an endorsement DOES show is the candidates strength in an area - most newspapers tend to endorse people they think have a reasonable chance to win.
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Posted at 12:55am on Jan. 10, 2008 McCain Surge Hits Michigan
By GreatDarkSpot
New polls are starting to come out in Michigan. Despite the fact that there are a couple of old polls in there, McCain has leaped to within one percentage point of the lead. Looking at his schedule, he's going to be flying all of that state in 'Air Force John' and getting lots of free media as well as his ads being on the air. I think Mitt has one chance to stop him and that is to score a bit hit on him at the debate tomorrow. I don't think too many people in MI will be watching, but if something big happens, it'll get lots of play on the news.
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Posted at 4:08pm on Jan. 7, 2008 "I'm Mitt Romney, And I Did Not Approve This Message"
By GreatDarkSpot
Burried in ABC's The Note, I found this little gem. Mitt Headroom is such a details man - how could he let an ad go by with it saying something he didn't want it to say? Either he was fibbing or else he's not as good at running things as he says he is.
In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hammer McCain over immigration -- even when he has trouble keeping his facts straight. Romney said at Saturday's ABC debate, "I don't describe your plan as amnesty in my ad." Two of his ads do use the A-word, and Romney said he misspoke. "I hadn't seen that one. And my staff told me afterwards, 'it does say amnesty.' And I said, 'well it's not supposed to.' " (Wonder what he meant when he said, "I'm Mitt Romney, and I approved this message.")
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Posted at 3:47pm on Jan. 5, 2008 Romney behind Politico Smear on Fred?
By GreatDarkSpot
Okay, Rombots, don't shoot the messenger. I have not heard this mentioned here but Bob Novak is fingering Romney's people for the Politico story that depressed Thompson's Iowa turnout. If it was Romney's people, it seems like a stupid move to me.
WHITHER THOMPSON?
Published reports that Fred Thompson soon will withdraw from the Republican presidential contest and endorse Sen. John McCain have been traced in part to Mitt Romney's campaign, trying to stir up strife between McCain and Thompson.
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Posted at 1:11pm on Jan. 4, 2008 Fred's New Chance
By GreatDarkSpot
First of all, this is not a sarcastic post – I say that because I’m one of the few active Fred! bashers here. You FredHeads did get screwed by Politico. That’s not nice and it’s gotta hurt. Looking at the breakdown of the race for third, Fred did well in the rural areas that he’s been meandering about in for the past few weeks. McCain tended to top him in the cities. Part of that is those large areas were the few places McCain himself actually showed up in. But I also think those are the people most vulnerable to ‘buzz’. McCain had it – thanks in large part to Politico (and also a hit piece by ABC talking of Fred stumbling to the finish line) Fred did not. I think without that Politico hit peace, Fred would have come in a solid third and gotten a bit of much needed buzz. As it is, the press is playing third place as a tie and Fred is getting little mention at all – McCain is getting much more lift out of it. By the time we see the final numbers (anybody got ‘em?) it will have ceased to matter.
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Posted at 11:16pm on Jan. 3, 2008 The FredPool
By GreatDarkSpot
As the last numbers are trickling in, less than 200 votes separates McCain and Thompson for third. Watching it get tight, I think McCain probably passes him, but either way it's really a tie for third. So, the contest is then to predict when Fred drops. I predict that he will actually stay in through SC and drop the day after. I think he'll go right there and try to 'live off the land' the way he did in Iowa. He won't bother with NH or MI. But he has no money, no buzz and no 'mo'. There is an outside chance of him dropping on Saturday, but my bet is for him to last through SC.
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Posted at 11:02pm on Jan. 2, 2008 McCain Takes Over NH Lead at RCP
By GreatDarkSpot
Lots to happen over the next six days, but it's worth noting that John McCain has taken over the lead in NH according to Real Clear Politics. This really is a case of peaking at the right time. He is getting attacks from Mitt Headroom but no one else at the moment. I expect if he starts to win races, all the others will turn on him they way they are going after Mitt but with this compressed schedule, there might not be time to knock him down. McCain is now going on the air in Michigan so that if he wins NH, he can continue the momentum. He has already been on the air in SC and has a good organization there. And he wouldn't have come back to Iowa if his internal numbers didn't show a very good chance of third place. There are going to be lots of stories tomorrow night - a decent third place by McCain could be one of them.
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Posted at 4:59pm on Dec. 20, 2007 John McCain's Christmas Ad [Updated]
By GreatDarkSpot
Okay, anyone who has listened to McCain very much will have heard this story. However, I'm sure that many people out there who are not political junkies will not have. Having said that and admiting my obvious bias, I think this is probably the most effective of the Christmas ads so far. McCain can show a cross in his ad and have it be a legit part of the story - not just a prop or something to be seen as pandering. It also reminds people of what they do like about John McCain.
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Posted at 10:02pm on Dec. 16, 2007 Rudy Pulling Back in NH - Advantage, McCain
By GreatDarkSpot
Acording to various writers over at The Politico, Rudy is cutting way back on his efforts to win NH. He doesn't seem to have gotten much bang for his buck and prefers to aim for FL. I tend to think that's a mistake - he feels that his best chance is for a number of different winners to come out of the early states and then for him to take FL and have the lead going into Feb 5th. I think the risk for him here is that McCain is the one who can be the biggest threat to him if he gets the wind behind his back. He's the best known - free media will be all over him if he wins in NH and he would then have a real chance to win Michigan and even South Carolina. McCain with momentum is the most dangerous to Rudy's chances.
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