September Primary Rankings: Republicans
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STATE OF THE RACE
As they say in Shelbyville, "There's a doin's a-transpiring!" The big stories in the Republican race are obviously the entrance of Fred Thompson and the surprisingly strong showing of Mike Huckabee at Ames. But before we get to that, let's look at the bottom of the barrel. The first, and so far only, victim from Ames was Governor Tommy Thompson. It's pretty amazing that a guy who was touted as a serious Presidential candidate for most of the last decade finished so poorly at Ames. While amazing, it wasn't surprising; he seemed more like an oafish uncle than a President at the debates. Too bad for a guy that was such an important figure in the modern conservative movement. Duncan Hunter should have been gone after getting fewer votes than some candidates who weren't even on the ballot. And Tom Tancredo continues his socially awkward, one-trick-pony performances at the debates. Ron Paul continues to be Ron Paul. In the second tier, we find two candidates going in different directions. Mike Huckabee's strong showing in the Ames straw poll catapulted him to national . . . well, local prominence. He got a look from some people, and if he has managed to convert that to campaign funds, we might see some further movement. McCain continues his decline; the fact that people are being so nice to him at debates shows you what they think of his chances of winning the nomination are (though he is making a last second -- and likely futile -- attempt at a comeback with his fiesty performances at the debates. At the top, Mitt Romney continues to run a very smart campaign. If he can keep his early polling numbers up, the word "inevitable" is going to start to form on peoples' lips. Of course, the entrance of Fred Thompson as someone who has been socially conservative at least a decade longer than Romney could shake this up. The more that social conservatives are divided, the greater the odds of Rudy Giuliani emerging as the candidate. |
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TOP TIER
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Mitt Romney |
Romney keeps doing what he needs to do. He won the Ames straw poll and reaped some good publicity, and has begun airing ads in early states outside of Iowa and New Hampshire. This tells you his campaign believes that things there are in pretty good shape, and that his third quarter fundraising is proceeding apace. He has a compelling message as a true "outsider" candidate. And Fred Thompson delayed getting into the race, allowing him to solidify soft support.
That said, to many people his "aw shucks" demeanor combined with his flip-flops on high-profile social issues smacks of inauthenticity, and he still hasn't really gotten walloped with the tough ads. Still, his odds of securing the nomination increase with each passing day. |
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Rudy Giuliani |
Can a twice-divorced, pro-choice, pro-gay-rights Republican really win the Republican nomination? This question has been asked repeatedly over the past eight months since Rudy announced, and it appears more and more every day that the answer is "no, but . . ." with the "but" being a charismatic, tough-on-crime, talk-tough-on-terrorism mayor in a year where "typical Republican" would likely lose. Still, he needs to do more in early states; I'm not certain that he can afford to do worse than place second in Iowa or New Hampshire, and Fred is nipping at his heels. If he loses the early states, his candidacy could be dead by the time New York and California primaries roll around.
He needs to find a line that starts with something other than "when I was Mayor of New York" as well. (BTW, my initial icon was Fire Marshall Bill from "In Living Color" fame, who I think is something of Giuliani's doppelganger. Then I realized that some people would connect it with 9-11, which would be awfully morbid. But I still think the resemblance is uncanny). |
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Fred Thompson |
Am I the only one that thinks Fred Thompson looks unhealthy? At any rate, Jay Cost is 100% right when he says that Fred Thompson didn't "miss his moment." We're far enough out from Iowa that all this talk of controlling wives and poor fundraising won't make a difference if he performs well in the coming weeks.
Where waiting to announce really hurt Fred is that it allowed social conservatives to look around at the other candidates. As a result, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have risen in the polls. This might have happened to some degree anyway had Thompson not declared, but probably not to the extent it has as of today. Regardless, he's now in the predicament of having to woo away Romney voters, rather than pick up undecideds. |
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SECOND TIER
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Mike Huckabee |
After a solid showing in the Ames straw poll and in another debate, Huckabee's numbers are showing some movement. His folksy charm puts a face on conservatism that has been missing since, well, Reagan. And he can run as an outsider, more than any candidate except perhaps Romney. Any other year, he would be in the top tier at this point, but it will be tough to eclipse one of the three above him. Folksy charm only gets you so far. | ||
John McCain |
Okay, this is bound to rile some people up, but I think fifth place is about right at this point. He doesn't have much money, his campaign has been lackluster, and his poll numbers are plummeting. This is a death spiral. He's been trying to reverse the trend recently with some strong performances in the debates, but the feisty 64-year-old John McCain of 2000 looks more an more like a cantankerous 72-year-old John McCain in 2008. 2000 was his year, not 2008. | ||
Newt Gingrich |
Basically, he's waiting for the Thompson campaign to implode. If it does, he'll get in. Until then, I count him as a second tier candidate, simply because I don't think he'll run. | ||
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THIRD TIER
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S. Brownback |
Has a narrow third-place finish in Ames ever done more damage to a campaign? He and Huckabee basically tied, but you'd think that he'd have come in behind a bunch of people who weren't even competing (see Hunter, Duncan). I guess part of the difference is Brownback spent a huge sum on Ames, while Huckabee performed on a shoestring budget. Regardless, there can be only one between Huckabee and Brownback, and its looking more and more like that one is Huckabee. | ||
 Ron Paul |
He has a devoted core following that feels alienated from modern Republican politics. But there ain't no way he's winning this thing. | ||
Tom Tancredo |
Did well at the Ames straw poll. Not enough to move him anywhere in the polling or the ranking. His pet issue is gradually being taken over by Romney and, very soon, Thompson. Not much point at being an issues candidate when so many of the frontrunners agree on your pet issue. | ||
Duncan Hunter |
After a horrendous Ames poll showing, not really sure why he's still here. Sorry Congressman Hunter. I'm not making up any more icons for you. | ||
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 T. Thompson |
Should have challenged Kohl in '06. | ||
Jim Gilmore |
Good luck with the Senate run. Thankfully, Virginians don't pay a dime in that awful car tax anymore, so they're likely to look back favorably on your last campaign here.
Oh wait . . . |
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John Cox |
Sorry man. There's a greater likelihood that there will be a brokered convention that settles on Thompson or Gilmore as the nominee than that you will be nominiated. | ||
But he's still the frontrunner, imho. I don't think that's an unqualifiedly good thing, either.
Straw polls are generally relevant for two things: measuring organizational structure and getting media coverage. Romney and Huckabee were the two candidates who met their expectations, and reaped the benefits of the media coverage, which is why they are the candidates with the strongest upward trajectory in actual polling.
"You can blame Fred for being late to the party, lazy, unaccomplished, not to mention looking bad due to weight loss, the cancer problem, and his oh-so-young wife, but I don't think you can blame Rudy for not participating in the straw polls because of his two divorces."
I'm pretty sure I didn't mention half those things. Fred isn't to "blame" for being late to the party, but it was a mistake. And I don't think he looks particularly well, which in a modern campaign is a very bad thing.
I follow your thinking and I see its merit, but I see some additional factors. Romney comes in third at best in the national polls, which could have more value currently in determining the early frontrunner. Remember, the early Iowa and New Hampshire polls will dominated by the candidate who has spent the most of television commercials presenting his side of the story. That is Romney at this point, but his early leads will evaporate once other candidates pay for exposure and Romney's "side of the matter" is challenged.
The national polls, on the other hand, are not as affected by the early day-to-day campaigning for which Romney has paid. Romney has "caught on" only in the early States, and his supporters have to hope that he can pay and is able to catch on elsewhere.
Rudy is imagined to be a known quantity, and he could be considered to be the frontrunner if we need to pick one. Thompson? For now, we have to talk mainly of potential. If the concomitant questions can be answered favorably, he's the prohibitive frontrunner and in all probability the nominee.
Its why I chose to arrange things by tiers rather than just ranking people. I'm not sure what happens once Romney starts getting battered around by ads, but as we get closer and closer to primary day, people's decisions start to calcify. That said, a lot of primary voters won't really make up their minds until right before voting. See Dean, Howard. For right now, Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani all have a roughly equal chance of becoming the nominee; forced to pick, I'll go with Romney for now.
Woof!!
Franz' 11th Commandment: If anybody messes with you, kill them and eat them invite them to a State Dinner at the White Ho
The fuzzy guy was supposed to fix it.
Woof!!
Franz' 11th Commandment: If anybody messes with you, kill them and eat them invite them to a State Dinner at the White House...
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Franz: Please ask the fuzzy guy to fix your sig, because it's too long and the RS cutoff made a big mess of things, heh.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Gotta go get stitches. The Prince is in a bad mood today and rather than just remind me that I was supposed to fix his sig, he just took a piece out of my leg and let me figure out what it was for.
I deserved it though. He's never bitten anybody who didn't deserve it.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
That you're pushing back your official announcement?
I thought you were supposed to be officially in the race as of last week?
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
It would be after Thompson and Newt. We still haven't heard from Newt.
Watch your snotty tone. A couple of armored divisions is no match for The Prince. Tick him off, he takes it personally. You can plan on at least one of your legs disappearing in a blur of white fur and flashing teeth.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
No joke at all. I WILL be the next POTUS. We've just been delaying our announcement until all the potential candidates have announced so we can deal with each one. All the air will immediately be sucked out of the campaign season, I will be declared winner by default. And that's only right. I'm much better looking that any of them. I have better hair. I'm much better bred - and I can prove it. And I'm so much smarter than the rest of the pack it's hardly worth discussing.
Don't even think about going down that "joke" road. You could really piss me off and you don't want to do that. And don't let the "dress uniform" pictured below fool you. When I'm painted and in my BDU (battle doggie uniform) I'm a killing machine.
Woof!!
Franz' 11th Commandment: If anybody messes with you, kill them and eat them invite them to a State Dinner at the White House...
In fact, if he Does fly off the handle like that, it would show him to be utterly mentally imbalanced and totally unfit to be President of his own Flea colony, let alone the USA...
Besides, even my Keeshonden could take him. Totally ignoring the Chow reinforcements I could call in. As a bulldog, I must say that Franz leaves me wanting...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
Tell that story to the Rottie I chewed up when I only weighed a pound. Or the German Shepherd. Or the Chocolate Lab (Ummm chocholate!). Or the Dobermans.
I don't fly off the handle, I just respond appropriately to external threats. And come to think of it, you're probably not much of a threat behind your heavily armored desk.
And I do not have fleas. Those are confined to cat things. You don't know much do you.
Woof!!
Franz' 11th Commandment: If anybody messes with you, kill them and eat them invite them to a State Dinner at the White House...
Franz, can you please go back to the old pic? This one just doesn't seem to reflect the real you IMHO, so isn't the best for the campaign (or pre-campaign). Just a humble suggestion from a devoted follower.
Unless you don't want me to use you as the new, Stylish leg of said desk... :)
Anyway, hurry and announce your candidacy. I've got all this money that's burning a hole in my pocket...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
oh yeah, Raven, like you would ever DARE talk like that to Franz' face! And if you ever would, I'd like to cover it for pay-per-view. I think I could get $40 a pop for a live mauling by Franz of a human who dissed him. OK, maybe not if the rumor is true that you're of the female variety, but maybe you'd do me the favor of sending in a guy to deliver the message to Franz.
And I'll even take a dive...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
Oh, you won't fall voluntarily, I assure you. There'll be no savin' Raven. After Franz is finished with you, we'll need several rolls of Bounty to pick you up off the floor.
The Prince cleans up after himself...
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
but hey, you're just jealous.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Huge LOL! Reminds me of a joke I'll have to email you, Beckster. Sorry, Raven, it's not for mixed company.
Do we need to schedule a second match to immediately follow my show on how to tan dog-hide?
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
I'll even let you fight my wife and Franz can have what's left of you...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
I'm real confused. I was under the impression that you were a woman. If you have a wife you're either a man or part of a same-sex marriage. Help me out here.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
ok, then I hastily take back my "Ravishing Raven" label. Not something I would say to a dude...not that there's anything wrong with that (Seinfeld reference).
You Were the one to whom I denied that label the only other time it came up...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
But remember, I had joked about whacking you with a rhetorical "stick" and Cowboy told me that was inappropriate to say to a lady. And it wasn't clear to me if your denial was serious. Anyway, I know now.
Where are you getting the idea that Thompson has to peel people away from Romney to get anywhere?
Is it from straw polling, in which Thompson has more first place finishes than Romney does?
Is it from public polling:
| Poll | MoE | Giuliani | Thompson | Romney | McCain | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen National | 4 | 24 | 23 | 14 | 11 | 20? |
| Strategic Vision Iowa | 4 | 13 | 15 | 31 | 8 | 13 |
| Rasmussen New Hampshire | 4 | 20 | 11 | 32 | 11 | 17 |
| Rasmussen South Carolina | 4 | 21 | 23 | 10 | 14 | 22 |
| Field California | 5.4 | 35 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 20 |
Note: Rasmussen doesn't give the undecdieds for the national poll, but does mention Huckabee getting 5%, so I'm assuming everyone else is inconsequential.
It seems to me that the undecideds are still hanging around, which when combined with Thompson's good buddy McCain's supporters, and of course the Giuliani people, mean that Romney's supporters aren't all THAT special.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Neil, I think you once told me how to get tables like that on RS, but pleeeeease do so again, you html god, you. This time I'll take the tip and put it somewhere safe, I promise. Pleeeeease.
All those bans are pure red meat for the base; essential for a NeoCon™ to win.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
He's doing a heck of a job blitzing those two states as the traditional formula demands.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
I say Fred has to peel away Romney voters. You can dismiss IA and NH as the "traditional" formula all you want, but the winner of those two contests (if the same person wins both) will be very tough to beat, accelerated primary calendar or not.
Fred Thompson is a top-tier candidate. I'd even say he has an very good chance of winning. But he's got his work cut out for him, and his delayed entrance has made it more difficult for him.
| Year | Actual Winner | Iowa Winner | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | GW Bush | GW Bush | McCain |
| 1996 | Dole | Dole | Buchanan |
| 1988 | GHW Bush | Dole | GHW Bush |
New Hampshire's on a bit of a slump, and Iowa's not perfect.
The last two times we've had a contested primary, New Hampshire picked the wrong guy. Buchanan and McCain? Come on.
And if the voters have ignored these states, the schedule has just stomped them into the ground.
January 5: Wyoming (12 of 28 awarded, presumably cut in half to 6)
January 14: Iowa (41)
January 15: Michigan (61, presumably cut in half to 30)
January 19: Nevada, South Carolina (81)
January 22: New Hampshire (24)
January 29: Florida (114)
February 2: Maine (21)
February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahome, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia (968)
Total by February 5: 1322 (not adjusting for any penalties) of ~2500 delegates.
This isn't 'compressed'. This is a madhouse. In most years, Romney would be golden. Now though, the terrain is completely different. Iowa and New Hampshire don't even stand out in the schedule, so with all the other stuff going on he's never going to get a chance to stop long enough to trumpet his wins.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
The ultra-compressed schedule may undermine the traditional formula. But it may boost it too. The slightly less compressed, but still more compressed than ever before, schedule of 2004 seemed to. Having won both IA and NH, Kerry seemed unstoppable.
Also, I suspect Romney will do well in some of the other early states, such as Nevada and Wyoming.
There is also a third possibility, that I have written about before. The early states will fail to winnow the field before 05 Feb and thus a three way field goes all the way to the convention. Could happen to the Dems, too.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
What made Kerry unstoppable was that his biggest competition had become the leading object of ridicule in the political world...
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
But I suspect Dean would not have been his biggest competitor after Iowa even without the scream.
Kerry used Iowa very effectively. He eliminated Gephardt - his biggest competitor for the Dem establishment - and Dean - his biggest competitor in NH. He left himself running against Clark and Edwards.
I suspect that anyone who wins both Iowa and New Hampshire will remain tough to beat. I am also pretty sure both will continue to play a role in winnowing the field. Candidates who underperform expectations - a al Gephardt and Dean - will struggle, and possibly simply withdraw.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
How many(if any) states are winner take all for the primaries?
What is the percentae of super delegates and where do those delegates stand at this point in time?
I don't think any states are winner take all for their pledged delegates to the RNC. That's a point I think Romney and Giuliani people forget all too often. "Winning New York and California" doens't pack the same punch in the RNC race as it does in the Electoral College race.
As for unpledged delegates, I think there are far too many to really track well. The Green Papers say there are 665 of them.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Florida and California are "winner take all by district" states so if Guiliani can win each district by a little then he takes all or most all of the delegates, but if there are some more conservative areas of florida / california, guiliani could lose those areas whlie winning the more "moderate" areas.
So, it may still favor a big media buy, but it won't be a clean sweep.
I'd like to find out more about the 665 superdelegates.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
a long time now that IA & NH are going to be blips in the process. I actually thought it would take until the next cycle to completely marginalize them, I think I was wrong.
The thing about this schedule that just caught my eye is Michigan. Romney's originally from MI, his dad was governor, his family is VERY well known and we used to see lots of stuff touting Romney's organization in MI. I have no clue what he's doing there now, but if he doesn't do well - one day after IA and one week before NH - a good showing in IA may go for naught if the press choses to make less than a win in MI a big deal for him.
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
if Social Conservatives don't want Rudy to lock up all the money and attention. They have until February 5th to defend their principles!
I'm still thinking Newt will shake up the ranks.
Who in our party proposes stripping civil rights from homosexuals?
You'd do better to say "pro-gun control" there.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
You're right -- being pro-gun control is another problem for Rudy in the primaries. As for "pro-gay rights," I think most people in this context understand it to be shorthand for being pro-civil unions and pro-ENDA. We can bicker about the appropriate shorthand (just like some would say I should have said "pro-abortion" rather than "pro-choice"), but in the end I think we understand what we're saying for discussion purposes.
I just find it uncomfortable that you used the preferred Democratic phrasing both times, which with the latter is commonly used as a smear against us.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
They may not be "among us", depening on how you define "us" but they most definitely are.
They want to make all our choices for us and, while they may hate war, their foreign policies never give us any choice...
"I Will Always Place The Mission First.
"I will never accept defeat.
"I will never quit.
"I will never leave a fallen comrade."
Warrior Ethos, US Army
If I'm nitpicking, it's because I think you did a good job all around, and so I think your work was good enough TO nitpick, heh.
I love the pictures you keep picking, though the one that made me laugh the hardest was Flipper last time. And "(Other) Thompson?" Oh man, heh.
HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
I agree with most of your comments except for those about McCain. I see some positive movement for him - and could still picture him winning in NH and SC. Not at all sure that even if he does that, he will be able to compete in all the states that come up after that but the free media would be a big help. Either way, those who suggested that McCain was only staying in the race to raise enough money to finish in the black are clearly wrong. He's in it to win, even if the odds are longer than they were at the start of the year.
>>>Where waiting to announce really hurt Fred is that it allowed social conservatives to look around at the other candidates. As a result, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have risen in the polls<<<
is the first criticism of Fred's "delay" that I've seen that actually has some logic attached to it. You're right - that's exactly what has happened. I doubt it's fatal, but it even happened to me.
...when they see me they'll say, "There goes Loren Wallace,
the greatest thing to ever climb into a race car."
...but I really like the icon you came up for him here.
I think you nailed everyone perfectly, but especially Thompson, Huckabee, and Tancredo. "Not much point at being an issues candidate when so many of the frontrunners agree on your pet issue" is the truest statement I've heard about Tom since the beginning of the race.
Fairly good in the details, VERY good overall view. Ditto on the Dem field, but I refuse to recommend that diary because well, "recommend" and "Democrat" don't sound all that good together....
It's war -- so when can we start shooting back at the enemy Democrats?
And Huckabee becoming a force in the campaign? On the basis of placing second in Ames. Who would have thunked it?
Of course, these solid numbers racked up by Romney and Huckabee in straw polls would be more meaningful if Rudy and Fred were participants.
You can blame Fred for being late to the party, lazy, unaccomplished, not to mention looking bad due to weight loss, the cancer problem, and his oh-so-young wife, but I don't think you can blame Rudy for not participating in the straw polls because of his two divorces. Maybe the straw polls just ain't a good barometer of party support.
But then again, maybe they are. That's why I think Ron Paul still has a strong chance. Look at those straw poll numbers!!! (Not).