Don't Write Off NH Senate Yet (UPDATED)
By horaceox Posted in 2008 | New Hampshire — Comments (34) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Early ARG polling showing Sununu down by 20 points to Jeanne Shaheen may be off the mark. The latest Rasmussen shows him down 5 points, with similar favorables/unfavorables to the former Gov. Rasmussen is one of the two or three most accurate polling outfits out there, whereas ARG's results have tended to be outliers this cycle.
Generally, when an incumbent is below 50%, or below his challenger, it is bad news. The exception is when the challenger has as good or greater name recognition. Examples include Strickland-Allard in CO in 2002 and Murkowski-Knowles in 2004. This could be just such an example.
With other Rasmussen polls showing Rudy and Romney competitive with Hillary, it may well be that 2006 was the outlier, and that NH is swinging back to its swing state status.
Fasten your seat belts, this one ain't over yet.
UPDATE: AND BAM! Just like that, ARG comes up with a poll showing Shaheen ahead of Sununu 46%-41%. This is the same outfit that showed a 57%-29% lead for Shaheen in June. Even better news from the internals -- Shaheen has already solidified her base (only 5% of Dems are undecided) while Sununu has not (12% of Reps are undecided). Once that happens, it becomes a battle for the remaining independents.
This race is not over. Not by a long shot.
We've got to do whatever it takes to save Sununu. He is one of the greatest senators we have - up there with Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint.
There have been a number of polls on this race this year, and they've been bad news. Every time I look at a poll, the first question I ask myself is, "Do those numbers look right?" Based on previous polling, those numbers don't. If this poll is confirmed by more polls, I'll get excited. Until then, I remain unconvinced.
I want confirmation by at least one other poll. There was a poll last year that showed Santorum within a few points of Casey and people got excited. Ultimately it probably did more damage because more people acted like he had a chance. They hung their hats on a single poll in a slew of polls that were far worse. If this is confirmed, I'll get excited. Until then, no.
Something's not right. I'm not saying that these numbers are wrong and the previous polls are right. I'm just saying that the numbers didn't swing that dramatically over the course of just a few months without something earthshattering happening. Either the race was never that far apart or these are two bad polls. I have no idea which is the case. When I get the chance I'll have to go back and get as much information as I can about the crosstabs and methodologies. So yes, the polls have me questioning whether I was right in my assessment that this one was over as soon as Shaheen entered the race, but I'm not convinced that it's competitive either.
How Shaheen dropped 10 points in the polls? Sununu dosen't appear to have moved up much, only 5 points or so.
The Democratic primary should be interesting, as I think Swett will have more confidnece to run based on these polls.
To get Shaheen to run.
I think that she's going to be disappointed to not have the cake-walk that she first expected.
You think that the first two polls were outliers? Well, it's always difficult to parse a race 18 months out, or even 13 months out.
I'm not saying that they were "outliers," I'm saying that I suspect that they were falsified by enterprising liberals hoping to draw Shaheen into the race. And it worked.
And now I hope Sununu puts it to her again in 2008.
To wait for another poll just in case this is an outlier
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
I didn't notice the 2nd and I was just about to post a withdrawl message :)
Race has definately tightened but still looks bad for Republicans at this point.
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
Why do you want conservatives to not try to keep this Senate seat? I agree it's not going to be easy, but are we only supposed to support candidates who have cakewalk elections?
I understand not wasting money on a Senate election where some no-name city councilman tries to take on an established incumbent in a deep-blue state. That is a waste of the Republican Party's resources, but this race is hardly a longshot.
Whatever the polls say, the actual election result is probably going to be within a few points, never the 20 point gap that previous polls showed. It's an uphill climb, but a lot can happen in a year.
Also, even if we come up a bit short, a tight election can sometimes scare a Democrat into being more moderate. If a Senator knows they came close to losing their last election, they're usually more willing to break with their party to appear bipartisan and centrist to their home constituents.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
It's not about wanting to lose. It's about wanting to learn from past mistakes. It was a huge mistake to spend resources on Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in the last cycle. Had a fraction of the resources that went into those states gone into Virginia or Montana, we would have control of the Senate today, and we might actually have 51 seats instead of 49.
We have a number of competitive races this year, and I don't want to see the same thing happen. Of course it's not about only competing in cakewalks. We have tough fights on our hands in Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Oregon, plus a very difficult open seat that I do think is winnable in Colorado. We could see the playing field expand as well to states like Alaska, New Mexico, and North Carolina. What I don't want to see happen is that we once again lose tough races in states that we can win because we're chasing rainbows where we can't. As I said in my comment above, I am less certain now that I was before that this race is not winnable, but I also think it's worth the effort to try to make an accurate assessment of our chances based on the available information rather than simply convincing ourselves that we can win the race because we really, really, really want Sununu to get reelected.
NH is a cheap media market, so I don't think we're talking about oodles of cash to keep this competitive.
Burns was down by double digits in the summer of '06. Using your frame of reference, we should have written that race off -- which we did, and it was a huge mistake in retrospect.
Once Sununu solidifies his base -- and he will solidify his base -- this race is essentially a tie, which is essentially what it was in '02. Combined with a "do you really want to give Hillary a blank check if she is president" campaign, it could easily be enough to pull Sununu through.
New Hampshire is split between the Boston and Burlington media markets, with most residents in the Boston media market. That's the seventh largest media market in the country. Because of that, media is very expensive.
Point remains, this analysis would have instruced Republicans to completely write off Burns in 2006 (and Democrats to write off Menendez when September polls showed him behind Kean by a similar amount)
The Burns numbers never came close to the earlier New Hampshire numbers. Tester enjoyed a double-digit lead in only one poll during the entire course of that race. His leads were typically in the low to mid single digits.
We'd have written off Deborah Pryce. And Heather Wilson.
And NH media isn't expensive compared to PA and NJ.
Not disagreeing with you, just supplementing your point.
“We don’t need any more cultural centers,” Mr. Coburn said. “We’re fighting a war; why should we be spending any more on a cultural center?”
The Club for Growth has made the defense of NH priority number one. Sununu will have the resources to win.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I'm tired of the defeatism. SIConservative, I'd like to know your history as a political strategist, since you seem so convinced that your analysis of both the 2006 results and the 2008 lay of the land is superior to everyone else's attempts.
Here's my take: fight everywhere it is reasonable to do so. The GOP did not "waste" a lot of money on races that were comparable to Sununu's. Solid incumbents should be defended vigorously. I had no problem with trying to save Santorum last cycle, and I have no problem spending the money to defend Sununu this time around.
We "wasted" our money in Rhode Island where the NRSC and RNC spent lots of money to defeat a fellow Republican in a primary in order to save a guy who voted with the caucus less than any other Senator. We "wasted" money trying to save a scandal-tainted, weak campaigning incumbent (Burns), rather than leaning on him to retire. Waste is not about poll results, it's about who can and should be helped.
The Club for Growth will do most of the heavy lifting in NH. But the Party should be generous in its support of all of its battles. Some races don't have set matchups yet. Many will be affected by who the parties nominate for president. And all of them are still at the stage where spending is "limited." So, NO race should be "written off" now; in fact I would say that we have another 6 months before we should even be asking the question about whether certain seats are "competitive."
For the record, yes, I have been a paid political strategist. And, for the record, every view on expressed on this site is just that, a view. Of course some of us, with or without a history a paid political strategist, defend our positions with hard data. All you've done is said that you want to waste money trying to wish candidates who can't win into office. Employing your "strategy" of not writing any races off now would cost us dearly in states that we can win and probably have us end up with 40-42 seats instead of 46-48. That is why most paid political strategists (since you seem to place so much import on that), analysists, and elected officials have said that we would be extremely lucky, as in surviving a twenty-story fall onto concrete lucky, to break even this cycle.
Speaking extremely generously, there are no more than four Democrat seats that should not be written off, Arkansas (competitive if and only if Huckabee gets in, which he has said he will not do), Iowa (if and only if a Congressman gets in), Louisiana, and South Dakota (if and only if Johnson retires or has a complete breakdown). I have responded to those who actually argued with me on my points or put up data to support their arguments, and will continue to do so. When you have something beyond a "wish" to back up your statements (I can't call them arguments because all you are attempting to do is poison the well), I'll pay attention to you again. Until then, you're not worth my time.
We need to fight everywhere -- and with Hillary on the top of the D ticket, we need to tie her to the D candidates downticket in Red/Purple states and in red districts in blue states.
Ladies and Gentlemen get out your checkbooks, it looks like Sununu has a chance.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
The 2006 dem pickup was against Repubs that were Main Street Partnership guys. Bass was liberal and Bradley was not quite as liberal. Sununu is conservative by stretches with zero baggage and has been a great friend to taxpayers (NH is big on small government). Yes there are enough social liberals to make the race close, but with Club For Growth and RNCs support will make a Sununu win much more likely. This race can not be ignored - Shaheen will make it interesting (much has to do with 2002, as opposed to 2006).
It seems to me that the previous two polls, where Sheehan was over 55%, were wrong.
Why do I say this? First of all, because I should have thought it was odd that a one term incumbent, with no obvious major problems (except for a bad national environment) was down by such a huge margin to a candidate whom he had defeated once before. Second, because one of the closer polls is Rasmussen, who was the best pollster in 2006.
My previous prediction was wrong - this is probably a lead Democrat race now. And because it is so atypical (i.e. the under 50% rule doesn't apply when two state wide candidates face each other), I think we shouldn't give up hope. Plus, it helps that Sununu has over $2 million in the bank, and both the Club and the Mainstreet Groups are planning to play.
I'm not totally convinced that you're right, but it does seem plausible. I think the stem-cell issue in particular (and I am very appreciative for his votes on it), along with Iraq, has hurt him, but I'm not sure how badly. I'm still not at all comfortable with the discrepancy, and you could well be right that it was the earlier polls that were wrong, but I would like something more than intuition to go on.
Look at the data on ARG.
The easy mistake that people continually make is to look at the _lead_ when they should be looking at the raw figures. With a four percent margin of error the lead can be eight points out. If the next poll has it eight points out in the opposite direction then it will look like a 16 point shift in the poll, when no shift has actually taken place at all.
The March 2007 numbers for Shaheen and the September figures (44% and 46%) are within ordinary margin of error, both of each other and of October 2002 numbers. June looks like an anomaly.
Sunnunu's numbers have shown more modest movement: 34% in March, 29% in June and 41% in September. That could be a mixture of a small improvement in his actual standing and both the June and September numbers differing from the actual within the margin of error. IE, the June number could have really been 33% and the September number might really be 37%. That's not such a big shift.
There's no doubt this is a challenging race. But unless the June numbers recur consistently there is no call to write it off so early.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
around here. Its correct not to write-off the NH Senate seat. Sununu is a strong conservative, and most importantly, he is a very articulate one at that. There is a big difference between Sununu effectively making the case for conservative economic policies and President Bush attempting to make the case. Sununu also has a bit of a libertarian streak that plays well in the state as well.
Starting with the positives, he is an excellent candidate, and the Club for Growth will be there with support. Secondly, he has already beaten Shaheen before, when she was a POPULAR Governor. Additionally, don't forget that Sununu first had to beat the incumbent Senator, Bob Smith, in a primary that caused some real hard feelings. This time, it may be Shaheen that will face a primary (Katrina Lantos-Swett has raised over a million, is she definitely going to quit now?), while Sununu's fundraising has been strong. Lastly, Bush was simply never popular in NH, McCain destroyed him in the primary, and if not for Ralph Nader, Bush would have lost NH in 2000 as well. Much of the 2006 vote was anti-Bush, and he won't be on the ballot in 2008.
Lastly, although New Hampshire has moved left, it is not Massachusetts. Plus, NH's voters have now had a taste of what Democratic control means for their wallets, and that should help Sununu as well.
The point is, stop with the negativity. When the GOP had 55 Senate seats, it was acceptable to complain about Snowe, Collins, Voinovich etc. However, faced with the prospect of 48 seats (including Collins, Tom Davis etc.) or with the prospect of 43-45 seats with Shaheen, Franken, Allen, Udall, and Mark Warner - I would take the latter. So lets get it together, dispense with the negativity and support our candidates.
And maybe it wouldn't hurt for the GOP presidential contenders currently spending a lot of time in NH to give Sununu a good word.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill