Redstate

1. The deal brings the Lebanese army into the mix. The Lebanese army couldn't beat a boy scout troop. Combine that with the Lebanese government's "don't ask, don't tell policy" referencing weapons and all you have is a bad joke.

2. The Mexican Army... Bad, bad example. First of all, there's no history of the Mexican Army kicking our collective butt militarily. Secondly, you overlook the very real temptation for the Lebanese to take some twisted pride int the fact that Hezbollah held off the Israelis for a month. Combined with the very real probability that Hezbollah, with Iranian $$, will make a stab at rebuilding Southern Lebanon, you've got no chance the Lebanese will turn on them.

3. Two front war. In your dreams. And only in your dreams. See 1 & 2.

4. Israel regrouping... Sorry, the Israelis didn't need time to regroup, they had actually just begun to get their act together. The regrouping will be done by Hezbollah.

5. World opinion. Israel has never relied on world opinion and the day they do will be the day they cease to exist. The Europeans have no stake in peace anywhere, the only stake they have is one in not irritating the Iranians too much. The Arab neighbors only stake is the destruction of Israel and the death of every Jew on the planet.

Bottom line, unless you are looking forward to the day when references to the State of Israel can be eliminated from the history books (check Arabic maps of today), this deal is indefensible.
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?

Israel is incredibly small and relies on the World from pretty much everything. While it is willing to buck world opinion when its very existence is on the line, they are not so much willing when the stakes are lower.

If Israel were dependant on impressing the riff raff at the UN, they would no longer exist. The UN is a very anti-Israel organization on balance. They aren't going to win any points with anybody for this.

As a result I see the deal as a face saving maneuver as well as a chance for Israel to rearm and regain world opinion.

Israel doesn't need to rearm as much as Hezbollah does. Israel could rearm during the conflict. Hezbollah had a much harder time doing that. I expect Hezbollah to be better armed in a few months than they ever were. They've proven they can have great success fighting Israel as a proxy for Syria and Iran. They'll be rewarded for this with more high tech weapons.

If and when Hezbollah decides the truce is off, they're going to start attacking Israel and in the process they are going to kill European peacekeepers. This will bring Europe back to Israels side.

Never going to happen. The peacekeepers won't get in the way, for starters. They'll go and hide in their bunker with the doors locked and the UN flag out. That is what UN peacekeepers do when there is trouble. They aren't there to fight anybody. Even if a few did get killed, it wouldn't bring Israel any support in Europe. Everything is Israel's fault all the time.

If such a situation occurs, Hezbollah will be fighting a two front war. Against Israel and against non shiite lebonese.

Not in this lifetime. For all intents and purposes, Hezbollah is a part of the Lebanese Army. The part that they have no responsbility for. They will never do anything about Hezbollah. They made that much clear before and during the conflict.

Hezbollah is now more popular than ever and is thought of as being invincible. Nobody is going to be challenging Hezbollah for a very long time.

The only positive thing about the deal is that Olmert had already shown that he was incapable of fighting a successful campaign against a wet paper bag, and it was senseless to continue with his administration running things.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

IAF - I'm going to agree with you, mostly, and apply a little cover fire too against the other arm chair generals on this thread (I'm one too so hold your flamethrowers).
People need to understand - Israel does not seem to have had any conclusive plan to destroy Hezballah. Someone seems to have accurately called the war a "spasm" rather than a plan. If the "cease fire" hadn't come along what would Israel be doing right now? Probably thrashing about killing a few Hezballah, getting awful press for bombing some Lebanese villages and then... they'd have to come home after a couple of months and we'd be pretty much back where we were before the kidnappings. The problem would not have been solved.
Israel is going to get another crack at these guys and maybe next time they'll be better prepared. Meanwhile, ultimately, the only long-term security will come when Lebanon has an Israel-friendly government - probably along the lines of Jordan. But this will take some time.
The point of accepting the "diplomatic" solution (which obviously is not an actual solution) is that it makes clear the craven clay-footedness of the French. But they had to be brought in because if they had not they would have been actively undermining us and Israel until they were brought in. Now it can be argued (whether it will be is another matter) that they had their chance and they ducked out on the bill. Now Israel can be cut loose to do whatever is necessary.
Plus, by Israel letting "diplomacy" take its course it shows that it was being a good and reasonable citizen. In round 2 they'll be able to legitimately ignore the "diplomatic solutions" that are run up the flag pole every 24 hours as Israel smacks Hezballah around again.
If Israel had really wanted to continue this venture it would have ignored "world opinion" and kept going.
Hezballah cannot defeat the IDF nor wipe Israel off the map. It can create a great deal of chaos and terrorism.
It needs to be pointed out that the IDF was not defeated. In three weeks it removed Hezballah from positions that it had been preparing for years - with minimal losses to the IDF. Hezballah's leadership scurried away into hiding. Hezballah took a 1-10 kill/loss ratio. The IDF gained valuable intelligence on how Hezballah performs. I doubt Hezballah gathered as much intel on the IDF since Hezballah forces were either retreating, ducking or getting killed.
Remember, before Israel ran the PLO out of Lebanon they made several practice runs at it before going in whole hog.
For taking a breather - Israel did need some rearming of ordnance. Israel can't store enough for a full-scale war so they do need occasional rearming (from the US). The IDF also needs time to go back to the drawing board and see what worked and what they intel says. The next operation will be better. This one was a bit too clumsy for the pros. It's like when Tiger Woods says he didn't have the "A Game" going.
It is correct that the current Lebanese army is a disaster. If not openly Hezballah-friendly it doesn't have the resources or wherewithal to remove Hezballah. The Lebanese Army needs to be a long-term project. If the French were more than the scum they are - they'd step in and start training the Lebanese (with help from the US, Italy AND Israel). But until Lebanon can police itself this problem will not go away. Israel can't defeat Hezballah because Hezballah is made up of merceneries bought and paid for by Iran and Syria. However many the IDF kill more will be recruited and inserted during a lull.
There are two negatives in this recent episode. One, through sheer deranged Arab propaganda this was, is and will be declared a great victory for Hezballah. There's not really anything we can do about that. It wasn't a victory but let them think that. It will breed the overconfidence that has destroyed every Arab army of recent history. The Egyptian Army looked pretty tough too after the Suez crisis and they believed there own propaganda. The Six-Day Way and the Yom Kippur War straightened up that misconception. It's important that we in the west understand the reality of the situation.
Secondly, things take a long time to turn. This problem could not have been solved with a packet of "Instant Solution." This was just Round 1. There maybe be several more rounds. This was not the end of the world.

Political leadership was indecisive, but whats more, reserve units-the Mass of Decision of the IDF, were undersupplied and could not have sustained operations for terribly long. Bush and Condi rang the buzzer just in time.

Olmert was the worst leader for this kind of situtation. However, once the IDF lost the inititative, there was no getting it back. The Hez are feeling good right about now. Like other Arabs, they do not understand Western society's capacity for self-correction and audit.

They will be taught.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill