Rudy Can't Win

By jamespolk Posted in Comments (42) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

There are a lot of reasons I would never vote for Rudy Giuliani, but I think one reason hasn't been addressed enough: if, on the off chance he won the Republican nomination, he couldn't win the general election.

There are two primary reasons for this -- he'll turn off social cons and won't be able to win the support of Independents/Moderate Democrats.

I realize that there are some social conservatives, including devout evangelicals, who are willing to overlook Rudy's support of abortion on demand, civil unions, gun control, and now government funding for abortion (in cases of rape/incest) because they think the War on Terror trumps everything else. But I think this group is a minority -- most evangelicals won't be willing to forget these issues. Dobson, Robertson, etc. will vehemently attack him during the primary and the support he now has from evangelicals who don't realize just how liberal Rudy is will erode. Many will vote for a third party candidate or stay home in the general.

Additionally he will have a major Catholic problem. I was just at a conference on Catholicism and politics. The general sense I got was that many of the people there were inclined to vote for a Democrat based on welfare/health care issues, but ended up voting Republican solely because of abortion. If there's no difference between the candidates on abortion they'll vote Democrat (see Bob Casey for an example of this).

Some think the fact that many evangelicals will stay at home and many Catholics will switch parties is no big deal because Rudy would be able to win Independents and moderate Dems. I strongly disagree. Although in a normal year he might be appealing to these people, 2008 won't be a normal year. The Iraq war will still be the biggest issue and Independents and Democrats are strongly opposed to the war. They'll go for the Democratic candidate based on their opposition to the war. Rudy's strong support of the war, which he must maintain in order to keep his base from completely collapsing, will repel these voters and hand the presidency to whoever the Democratic candidate is.

on all the Rudy bashing?
How many diaries have we had over the past three days about this?
For God sakes, you people act like this is new news. There is nothing new here. He is who he is and he has been upfront about that all along. More than we can say for some of the others.
Give it a rest. It is tiresome and not productive at all.

PS-No recommend!_____________________________________________________
The ultimate determinant in the struggle now going on for the world will not be bombs and rockets but a test of wills and ideas-a trial of spiritual resolve: the values we hold, the beliefs we cherish and the ideals to which we are dedicated.-Reagan

His support of government funding for abortion is not "new" news in the sense that he said the same thing many years ago. But I thought that, while he would have to run as a pro-choice candidate, he might have shifted his views on abortion at least a teeny bit (such as opposing govt. funding, opposing partial-birth abortion), but this shows that he is absolutley unwilling to compromise on the issue.

Also, some conservatives have been pretending that Rudy is personally pro-choice but would still appoint judges that will overturn Roe. I hope his latest comments put that pipe dream to rest. He not only said he supports govt. funding of abortions, he described abortions as a constitutional right. Maybe he likes "strict constructionists," but he should have no trouble finding judges who are conservative on law and order issues and liberal on social issues.

Maybe it's admirable that Rudy is "up front" about his positions. But I'd rather elect someone like Romney, whose conversion may be false then Rudy, who I know is an opponent of many of my views. At least if Romney is elected it would laregly be thanks to social cons and he'd have the need of pleasing his base.

the sheer idiocy of this statement-
"But I'd rather elect someone like Romney, whose conversion may be false then Rudy, who I know is an opponent of many of my views. At least if Romney is elected it would laregly be thanks to social cons and he'd have the need of pleasing his base."

I just don't think I have anymore words for that.
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The ultimate determinant in the struggle now going on for the world will not be bombs and rockets but a test of wills and ideas-a trial of spiritual resolve: the values we hold, the beliefs we cherish and the ideals to which we are dedicated.-Reagan

But I'd rather elect someone like Romney, whose conversion may be false then Rudy, who I know is an opponent of many of my views. At least if Romney is elected it would laregly be thanks to social cons and he'd have the need of pleasing his base.

Once a candidate gets through the primary, he doesn't need us any more. He can simply have some more conversions to put himself more in line with the general populace on the issues. The same goes for McCain, incidentally, who has the same problem Romney has on flipping whenever it is politically expedient to do so on issues like abortion.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

Actually c17wife and zuckio I don't see my position as idiotic. Presidents do have to appease their base. I'm not saying that they will do everything the base wants, but they can't cross them too much because they will then be completely ineffective. Bush wanted to appoint Harry Miers to the Supreme Court but was unable to because his base was so resistent. The point I was trying to make was that Romney's base would be essentially the same as Bush's and wouldn't let him get away with a nominee who favors Roe. Giuliani's base would be law and order Republicans and Independents who would be fine with judge who favors Roe. Naturally there's no way to prove this, but this i my take.

Well by zuiko

I'm not saying that they will do everything the base wants, but they can't cross them too much because they will then be completely ineffective.

There's gotta be easily 100 or more Republican governors that have disproved this theory. You always need to maintain a base of support, sure. But it doesn't have to be the same base that brought you to the dance. Politicians can and frequently do "evolve" in office.

The point I was trying to make was that Romney's base would be essentially the same as Bush's and wouldn't let him get away with a nominee who favors Roe.

Unless we have the Senate, there's nothing the base can do about it. It was push back from Republican Senators that killed HM. If we have a Democrat Senate, as appears likely, the base can scream all it wants and it won't matter.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

so I still see the original statement as sheer idiocy.
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The ultimate determinant in the struggle now going on for the world will not be bombs and rockets but a test of wills and ideas-a trial of spiritual resolve: the values we hold, the beliefs we cherish and the ideals to which we are dedicated.-Reagan

Well it's all just a guess when it comes down to it. I suppose one could argue that you culd never REALLY know what someone will do once elected to office.

I tend to think Romney's abortion conversion was sincere and that even if it wasn't he'll try to appoint pro-life judges if he can for political reasons. Maybe I'm wrong. But I know Rudy will appoint pro-choice judges -- he's just said abortion is a constitutional right that should be funded by taxpayers. I'd also rather have someone who who'll veto any attempt at instituting civil unions, and veto embryonic stem cell research funding. Romney has a proven record as being on the right side of these issues when it actually mattered -- he governed as a conservative even if he made prior liberal statements.

RUDY CAN WIN WTHOUT A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT LIKE YOU. HANOI POLK.

I guess I have nothing to say...it's just so arbitrary I felt I had to comment.

I suppose he can't come back with "Hanoi Liberty".

What the heck, he might even be right. It's way too soon to make that call.

Lighten up. It's politics, not life.
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Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

(just a joke, just a joke, take it easy...)

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

when I saw it listed in "Recent Comments". Note that I've even lightened up on McCain recently.

Sent my cannon off for reboring and cleaning. When it gets closer to reality, like late summer, it's scheduled for delivery.
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Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

I'll look forward to the resumption of hunting season...

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

And I just love a new cannon with fresh powder.
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Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

Rudy might annoy the evangelical right, but a lot of moderate republicans and democrats would vote for him, especially if the democrates run someone whacky.

It's amazing, though, how many refuse to see the obvious. If we nominate Rudy, there is a possibility that he will finish third.

Where that would leave the Republican Party after 2008 would be anyone's guess.

is that some people only one who will be able to keep them safe that they almost have to vote for him out of desperation. I just don't get it. The man has no foreign policy experience, he's never served in the military. I haven't heard him articulate a position on Iraq that's any better than Bush's. McCain has years of foreign policy experience, has fought for the counry in Vietnam, and has been the leading defender of the Iraq War (and just as importantly his criticisms of its handling have been right on) and he's not a social liberal. If the laundry list of McCain-Fiengold, Gang of 14, etc. are so obnoxious that one can't vote for him, I'd say that there's no reason to believe Romney, Duncan Hunter, or Fred Thompson if he runs, wouldn't be able to protect the country from terrorists. All have spoken eloquently about the threat, take it seriously, are capable "leader" types.

When discussing people's electoral prospects, you make yourself look ignorant when you say that someone can't win. Especially when that someone is currently leading the national polls for the primary AND general elections. Discuss these things in probabilities, not absolutes.

If you want, talk about how Rudy is the least likely of the major candidates to win the general election. It has the same general meaning, with the additional benefit of not being completely over the top and wrong.

On the flip side, Rudy backers (myself included), should refrain from using the phrase "he's the only one who can beat Hillary," and replace it with "he's the Republican's best opponent for Hillary," if that's the point we want to make. Under the right circumstances McCain, Romney, Thompson or any nominated Republican can beat Hillary.

1. Rudy actually beats Hillary and Obama in polls right now.
2. If Rudy is nominated, he will likely pick a "real" conservative as his running mate, which should help with the "real" conservatives.
3. Even if Rudy doesn't get nominated for Pres. he will likely become everyone's favorite for VP, so Rudy is in a very good position at this point.

candidates that we have had over the years. Nixon and Ford were openly pro-choice. I believe that Reagan was indeed pro-life.I really wonder how many Senators and Congressmen in the Republican party are trully pro-life. I'm pro-life but I don't like being taken for granted. This is why I no longer pay much attention to the Pro-life Rhetoric because what have we gained with it. It's only being used by Republican politicians just to get our votes.

Values voters have little to show for years of GOP rule.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN...

"If so-called values voters couldn't get meaningful action on the two issues that have most animated our side this decade – abortion and gay marriage – with an evangelical president and both congressional chambers in Republicans' hands, it's not going to happen.

Most voters oppose same-sex marriage, but it's a generational thing. Younger voters have no problem with it. Whether by court order or popular mandate, gay marriage is going to be the law of the land.

And on abortion, even if Roe v. Wade collapsed, the issue would merely return to state legislatures. An important pro-life goal, to be sure, but polls show that public support for abortion rights is, sadly, solid and secure. Because of the war and the GOP candidate selection, culture-war concerns simply won't be as much in play in 2008."

I wonder how many Republican candidates thought Hamilton was right when he argued for a constitutional monarchy during the Constitutional Convention?

(OK, you're probably right. I'm the only one.)

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

I've been very open about my support for Franz, Prince of Dogness. And he would move to immediately abolish further elections and dissolve the Congress. OK, he wouldn't dissolve the Congress. He'd kill them and eat them. Raw.

Don't let the smile fool you...
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Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

and long live the habit of eating fresh, raw meat.

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

http://www.watergate.info/analysis/buchanan.shtml

"Until I saw an unctuous individual babbling on about how our terrified city feared a coup d'etat by Richard Nixon in 1974, I had decided not to write on the 25th anniversary of Watergate. But that did it. Watergate was indeed a coup. It was the overthrow of an elected president by a media and political elite he had routed in a 49-state landslide the like of which America had never seen."

The fact that Nixon and Ford were pro-choice Republicans doesn't prove your point at all. It shows just how different the Republican party of today is than it was in the 1970's.

I I hardly think of Nixon and Ford as exemplary Republicans. They're probably the two worst Republican presidents of the 20th century.

No doubt abortion is used by Republicans to get votes, but that doesn't mean it isn't worth fighting for. Evevotes -- GWOT, taxes, social programs...

and Ford helped to unify the nation after watergate. Warren Harding and Herbert Hoover were the worst two Republican presidents of the 20th century.

http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_United_State...

Gerald Ford:
6% outstanding,
17% above average,
60% average,
9% below average,
3% poor,
5% unsure

http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Richard_Nixon

in full:

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/debates/618.htm

in summary:

On June 18 Alexander Hamilton presented his own ideal plan of government. Erudite and polished, the speech, nevertheless, failed to win a following. It went too far. Calling the British government "the best in the world," Hamilton proposed a model strikingly similar an executive to serve during good behavior or life with veto power over all laws; a senate with members serving during good behavior; the legislature to have power to pass "all laws whatsoever." Hamilton later wrote to Washington that the people were now willing to accept "something not very remote from that which they have lately quitted."

My own view:
Hamilton was being only half serious. He meant to push the convention to the right, to thwart those who wanted to reform the Articles of Confederation rather than draw up a new document with substantial national powers based on Madison's Virginia Plan. But he was partly serious, too.

But I didn't mean to hijack your comment, just to make a (half-serious) joke...

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

George Washington the crown. I will check it out and get back to you.

to my knowledge.

In any case, Hamilton wouldn't have been part of such an offer. He knew better than to do such a thing.

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

I have seen this before on the history channel

http://www.apples4theteacher.com/holidays/presidents-day/george-washingt...

"George Washington is an American hero whose fame is not wholly accounted for by the record of his life. Like Lincoln, the man was infinitely greater than anything he did. A military genius, he wrested liberty from tyranny; a statesman, he helped evolve a stable government from political chaos; a patriot, he refused a crown. Wisdom, patience, tolerance, courage, consecration to the righteous cause animated his every act. Ingratitude, injustice and treachery never embittered him, but served to strengthen his character. He grew in dignity and in capacity to the need of his growing responsibility and power, but he never became arrogant and ambition and opportunity never tempted him from the narrow path of honor."

i don't believe there was ever an official offer, though, only some informal support for the idea.

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

least offered behind closed doors thank God he didn't do it.

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

or both of them together along with General Phil Sheridan could have easily put together a military dictatorship to run our nation after Lincoln was assassinated.

http://regionsofmind.blog-city.com/mr_lincoln_and_the_young_napoleon.htm

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

God knows I have enough reason to not be fond of either: one killed my gg/granfather, the other dispossesed his wife and children, so in that context:

I think both had more affinity for their Confederate "enemies" than they did for the Congress, the profiteers, and schemers in Washington. By that I don't mean the government of the CSA, which both roundly condemned, but the formidable fighting force that still existed and only needed the word of R. E. Lee to take to the hills and woods and plunge the Country into a new Dark Age.

In 1865, the AOTP was less than a formidable force comprised as it was by conscripts, bounty men, USCT, garrison troops forced from their sinecures by Grant, and only strengthened by the mortal remains of the Old Army and the few remaining early war veterans. Before Richmond it had overwhelming numbers and Lee's Army was dying every day to desertion and poor morale. On 2 Apr 65, Lee had less than one third of his nominal strength actually in the ranks, about 30K men facing 120K or so. When Lee's lines were broken, his only remaining hope was to break out and join Johnson in the Carolinas. When Lee was run to ground at Appomattox, mostly by the cavalry, he had three choices: fight it out to the last man and last bullet, disperse his army, still a hard and formidable force, to the hinterlands to continue the fight - what Davis wanted, or surrender his army and tell the men to go home and be good citizens. Lee chose the latter over the objections of many, most, of his officers, but they obeyed his command, and their descendents do so to this day.

Sherman's Army, on the other hand, was a very different beast from the AOTP; battle hardened, long serving, farm boys mostly from the, then, Northwest. Like a Roman Legion 1500 years before, they had lived off the land and their wits far from the Imperial City and its intrigues for years. After Johnson's surrender, Sherman crossed the Potomac as Caesar crossed the Rubicon. He marched that hard, dirty, sun-burned army down whichever Avenue it was, and the message was lost on no one; read the contemporary accounts.

It is fair to say that with Lincoln's death and Johnson's difficulties, America was run by a Congressional Junta until Grant's election in '68, but those formidable men, Grant and Sherman, had signed military surrenders with the PACS and paroled its leaders as soldiers, not traitors. Their power controlled the mischief that the Washington eunuchs would have wrought.

We have won the lottery of life by having been born with an American passport. Our fragile Constitutional republic survived the Spring of '65 because U.S. Grant, W.T.Sherman, and R.E. Lee said, "The War is Over."

In Vino Veritas

"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher

Deo Vindice

In Vino Veritas

said that the Senate and Lincolns cabinet were very worried about a military takeover. Before the assassination of Lincoln General Grant was the big hero even more so than Lincoln only when Lincoln was assassinated did he become the great martyerd hero.It would have been easy to have gotten rid of president Andrew Johnson in fact he was the only other President besides Bill Clinton to be impeached.

http://www.impeach-andrewjohnson.com/

During Grant's lifetime he was much more of a hero of the nation than Eisenhower,Patton,or even McCarthur were.

Rudy has always been a Liberal in Republican clothing. He again affirmed his stance on abortion and that should seal his fate.

Attention Mr. Giuliani

The Big Dog is always right...

 
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