Redstate

Posted at 11:31am on Feb. 12, 2008 InTrade's Built-In Bubble

By joeljournal

If you've checked out InTrade, the online predictions market, in the past week or so, you will have noticed the precipitous decline in the price for shares in Hillary Clinton, and the sharp rise in Barack Obama's stock. As of early this morning, Intrade was predicting Obama has more than a 70% chance of winning, while Clinton has less than a 30% chance.

Now, this seems a bit strange. You might think Obama has the edge, especially since he seems likely to win the remaining primaries in February, but as of today he's still behind in the overall delegate count. In other words, it seems reasonable to rate his chances at something higher than 50%, but higher than 70% smacks of "irrational exuberance."

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