Redstate

Posted at 5:43am on Jul. 8, 2008 Random thoughts from Leverkuhn

By Leverkuhn

Having trouble sleeping? So am I. Perhaps the following items will help numb your brain to the point that you can drift off into never-never land. What follows is not a diary in the traditional sense. It's simply a bunch of observations I've been collecting, some of them since before my return from self-imposed exile in the university library. Most don't merit a diary by themselves, but you may find them interesting reading nonetheless.

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Posted at 6:16am on Jul. 1, 2008 Jindal three-step

By Leverkuhn

As one of those who actually supported Jindal's initial decision not to veto the legislative pay raise, I'll admit I'm kind of miffed that he has chosen to reverse himself. [1] This is partly because I'm one of the few Louisiana residents outside of the state legislature who actually supported the pay raise in the first place. I did think it might have been a bit excessive (17K in one fell swoop is harder for the public to accept than incremental raises over 5 or 6 years), but I didn't think it was wrong. The fact is that it's hard for legislators to stay honest on $16,800 per year, even if it is technically a "part time" job.

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Posted at 9:48pm on Jun. 26, 2008 Why We Fight

By Leverkuhn

For all you conservatives out there who have been disappointed and disillusioned over the shortcomings of Republican government, today's events will prove heartening. Today, in a bitterly contested 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the Second Amendment does, in fact, belong in the United States Constitution. [1] In Justice Scalia's majority opinion ... let's pause to savor those last few words ... in Justice Scalia's majority opinion, the Court declared that Second Amendment rights are not tied to membership in a state militia or similar organization. [2] Moreover, Scalia affirms that the "historical narrative" reinforces the central message of the 2nd Amendment: that owning firearms is a fundamental right which the federal government can not simply discard. While Scalia allowed that some restrictions on gun ownership are constitutional, and many may be desirable, an "absolute prohibition of handguns held and used for self-defense in the home" was clearly unconstitutional. [3]

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Posted at 3:27pm on Jun. 21, 2008 And to think I was going to sit this one out ...

By Leverkuhn

Hey guys, I'm not sure if anybody here still remembers me, but I'm Leverkuhn. I used to hang around these parts until I said "goodbye for now" a couple of months ago so I could focus on more important things, like passing my general exams and so forth. (psst, I did pass, if you wanted to know)

I've got to admit, there was a certain part of me that didn't want to come back. There was a certain part of me that wanted to sit this one out, take a breather, shut it down till next December. I even practiced saying "President Obama" in front of the mirror just to see if I could get used to the idea. And you know what, for the briefest moment I actually thought I could. But that all ended when I saw this! [1] There are some things this hillbilly from Missouri can stand, and some things he can't. I can get used to another liberal president. We've had them before, and some of them have grown in office and ended being halfway decent. I can even deal with the idea of a President named "Barack Obama." Funny name, but then we've had presidents named "Millard," and "Ulysses," so I guess it's a wash. But I can not handle the idea of a president who changes the frickin' Great Seal, even if it's just a joke.

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Posted at 4:34pm on Feb. 17, 2008 Leverkuhn leaving ... for the moment

By Leverkuhn

Today I'd like to announce that I'm leaving Redstate, but not permanently. Don't take this as a "goodbye cruel world" diary because that's not what it is. I am not leaving because I've been deeply offended by anyone on Redstate, or because I'm tired of conservatism, or sick of the Republican Party. I am not mad at anybody, and I am not giving up on the GOP's chances to win this November. I'm simply giving up blogging for the next couple of months so that I can focus on other, less important things, like studying for my general exams.

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Posted at 8:17pm on Feb. 15, 2008 On school shootings and gun control - a personal perspective

By Leverkuhn

Even as the nation's thoughts and prayers go out to the faculty and students of Northern Illinois University where deranged gunman Steven Kazmierczak shot 20 people and killed five [1][2], some people are using this tragedy as a political football to push for more stringent gun control legislation. [3] As the days go by that tendency to exploit the misery of others will only grow stronger.

Rather than get caught up in the ceaseless war of words, I'd like to give my personal perspective on the issue, a perspective which I believe I have gained through hard experience. Some of you may remember that a few months ago there was a deadly shooting incident at Louisiana State University, which happens to the institution where I study. Two Indian graduate students were killed, in grisly execution-style fashion, in one of the apartments in the university's Edward Gay apartment complex. If you don't remember this incident, this news video may help refresh your memory.

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Posted at 11:04pm on Feb. 14, 2008 Well, Well, Well ... bribery at the DNC?

By Leverkuhn

According to a new story in the Boston Herald, Senator's Obama and Clinton may both be attempting to influence the decision of many so-called "superdelegates" with cold hard cash. [1] The article explains that Obama and Clinton both have political action committees (PACs, for those of us unfamiliar with the political nomenclature), which have been making unusually large donations to the campaigns of hundreds of elected officials now serving as superdelegates.

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Posted at 4:56am on Feb. 9, 2008 My apologies to Romney and his supporters ... y'all got nothing on Obamania

By Leverkuhn

At some point during my two-year-long campaign to crush the Rombots, drive them before me, and hear the lamentations of their women, I remember writing on this website that the Romney supporters had created one of the weirdest political personality cults that I'd ever seen in my lifetime. I can't find the comment strand, but I know I said it somewhere. Today, as part of the "healing and reconciliation" movement here at Redstate, I'd like to humbly retract that statement. I personally apologize to Jbonham, JJfuller, and every other former Rombot around here. It's true, some of you were far too willing to accept Romney's political "Damascus Road" experience at face value. Others of you displayed something painfully close to man-love for the good governor's chiseled jaw and impeccably tailored attire. But for the most part you simply supported your candidate aggressively in the good old GOP tradition.

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Posted at 9:18pm on Feb. 6, 2008 Update on California Delegates

By Leverkuhn

I don't intend to comment much on this, because it seems that this post [1] by Henry Olson is pretty much self-explanatory. It shows that McCain's delegate total in California could end up being as high as 161 of the 173 total delegates from that state, and will certainly be no lower than 140. His data comes from the California Secretary of State. Consider this a simple FYI post.

[1] http://tim

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Posted at 12:57pm on Feb. 6, 2008 Zogby sucks, Part 2 [Updated]

By Leverkuhn

While Clinton and Obama argue over who had the best showing on Tuesday (Obama is right, btw), and while Mitt Romney tries desperately to convince the GOP that he still has a pulse, there is a little-noticed sub-story in the world of professional pollsters. John Zogby, once considered the "king of pollsters," is on the fast track toward irrelevance. I've blogged about this before, most recently when I suggested that Zogby's suggestion that Obama was the man to beat could actually spell "bad news" for his candidacy. [1]

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Posted at 5:07am on Feb. 4, 2008 Bad News for Obama ...

By Leverkuhn

It turns out the most over-rated pollster in America - John Zogby - has just announced that Obama has the momentum going into Super Tuesday[1]:

"The momentum is with Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "If this trend continues it could be a very big night for him."

The question is, does this make it more or less likely that Barack Obama will prevail in the Democratic primaries? My guess is that Obama may become the most recent victim of the "Zogby curse," which is to say, the curse that happens to you when John Zogby announces that you are the favorite to win. The last victim of this curse was John Kerry. [2]

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Posted at 1:13am on Jan. 30, 2008 Alright boys, let's go win this thing!

By Leverkuhn

Today John McCain all-but locked away the GOP nomination for president in 2008. I know there are people here who will dispute that, but the simple fact is that any of the three remaining candidates faces an almost impossible task of overtaking a freight train steaming 100 mph straight to Minneapolis. Of the states holding primaries on Super Tuesday, McCain holds comfortable leads in the two biggest states: New York by an RCP average of 9.2 points, [1] and California by 8.9 points. [2] Those leads are significant, but they actually understate McCain’s strength in those contests. The most recent polls have McCain up by double digits in both California (12 points according to Survey USA), and New York (19 points according to Gallup). He also holds a small lead in New Jersey, but his closest competition there is Rudy Giuliani who I am relatively certain will call it quits after tonight. [3] Moreover, early reports on Drudge suggest that when he pulls out he will endorse McCain. In other words, McCain is in the lead and pulling away fast.

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Posted at 3:54am on Jan. 29, 2008 Predictions for Tomorrow

By Leverkuhn

What follows are my five predictions for tomorrow's Florida presidential primary. I haven't been the best prognosticator this election year, but that's no reason not to try.

First, McCain will win. I know, I know, it's not like you were expecting me to say anything else at this point. To be sure it's a very close election (the RCP polling average is statistically meaningless: McCain + 0.8), and Mitt Romney has made much more of a game of this primary than I expected. Even so, all of the recent polls on RCP have McCain either tied or slightly ahead, and the one poll that shows a tie - Rasmussen's Florida tracking poll - puts had Romney up by six points last Saturday. [1] The only thing that has changed in the last three days is Governor Charlie Crist's endorsement, which along with the endorsement from Senator Mel Martinez, seems to be giving McCain that little boost he needed. Sure, I readily admit that I could be wrong, and given how poorly the polls have performed this primary season there's certainly no safe bet either way. This prediction is based on instinct and gut feeling as much as anything else.

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Posted at 11:43pm on Jan. 26, 2008 Don't get your knickers in a twist over SC primary returns

By Leverkuhn

I've noticed a couple of diaries and RedHot postings suggesting that South Carolina primary returns augur some sort of trouble for the eventual GOP nominee in that state. [1] Without trying to minimize the serious nature of the challenge we face next November, let me make one thing very clear: regardless of what the returns are in this primary, the eventual GOP nominee will win South Carolina. South Carolina is a hugely red state, one that returns enormous margins for the GOP every year. What we are seeing in the SC primary is an interesting dynamic in which a much more energetic black voting bloc has turned out in huge numbers for Barack Obama, for obvious cultural and sentimental reasons. Going into this election, polls showed that about half of registered Democratic voters in South Carolina were black, [2] and given how much better Obama did than the major polls were indicating, I'd say that the black portion of the vote was considerably higher than 50 per cent.

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Posted at 9:41pm on Jan. 22, 2008 Saying goodbye to Fred Thompson

By Leverkuhn

As everybody knows right now, Senator Fred Thompson has decided to call it quits. He made his announcement after a string of defeats and poor finishes in the early primary states.

Since I am not a Fred Thompson supporter myself, one might expect that I would look upon his departure from the race as a good thing. And certainly, every serious candidate that John McCain outlasts is one less obstacle to his eventual nomination. Nevertheless, I want to say to all the Fred Heads out there that even though I did not support him I am truly sad to see him go. The reason is simply that he brought something to the race that I felt it dearly needed: perspective.

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