MyDD hearts Walter B. Jones
By Liz A Mair Posted in 2008 — Comments (21) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Promoted from blogs, with an observation: you can credibly switch Parties. Ronald Reagan did it, after all. But you can only go to that particular well once in a career and still have one. Nobody trusts yo-yos. - Moe Lane
Readers of both RedState and my own blog will be aware that I have some issues with North Carolina GOP Congressman Walter B. Jones (hence why I've been doing some work for his Republican primary challenger, Joe McLaughlin).
But, today, I have found a whole new reason to be concerned about Jones. The lefties over at MyDD seem to be fantasizing about him switching parties and becoming (again) a Democrat.
Money quotes from today's "Coaxing a Party Switch in North Carolina" post:
Back in March I pointed to the possibility that North Carolina Republican Congressman Walter Jones, a conservative on most issues other than Iraq, where he has staked out an anti-war position, would leave the GOP and join the Democrats. Well, it hasn't happened yet, but perhaps it may soon given the way Jones' caucus is treating him.
[...]
As I noted back in March, Jones has already previously been a member of the Democratic Party, having unsuccessfully run as a Democrat for the congressional seat being vacated by his father, also a Democrat, in 1992, before winning his current seat as a Republican in 1994.
[...]
There is little doubt that he would be among the more conservative members of the Democratic caucus were he to join it (either as a Democrat or a Democratic-leaning independent). To take one example, Jones voted against the expansion of SCHIP earlier this year -- though that can at least in part be chalked up to the fact that he represents a state uniquely hit by the increased tax on cigarettes (given the prominent role the tobacco industry plays in the North Carolina economy). That said, at least according to the 2006 National Journal vote rankings, Jones lines up on the left side of the aisle, voting liberally than 53.5 percent of his colleagues in the second session of the 109th Congress, which is about as good as one could ask for from a district as inherently Republican as North Carolina's third.
(my emphasis added)
The MyDD folks seem to feel that were Jones to switch parties (and, it appears that based on a report today that Jones' firm anti-war stance may cost him a key position on the House Armed Services Committee, they think it's possible), his seat would be at least "in play" for Democrats.
What the MyDD kids, and indeed Jones himself, however seem to be forgetting are these key points:
- the district went to Bush with roughly 68% in the last presidential election;
- it contains three major military installations (Camp Lejeune, Marine Corp Air Station Cherry Point and Seymour Johnson Air Force Base);
- it's a conservative district more than it's a district that's inherently loyal to Jones, as a political personality (and especially given all the sightings of him with favorties of the conservative movement like Dennis Kucinich and Cindy Sheehan).
Those three things make it somewhat laughable that Democrats would view the district as "in play" for them were Jones to defect-- though he sounds more and more like he may with comments about him being an independent (see the Hill piece linked above), his noting of his seeming preference to work with Democrats (see his comment to the Hill: “The times I have asked to meet with a chairman, the door has always been open"), and his evident refusal to sign onto a letter promising to sustain the President's veto of SCHIP (no doubt to keep in good graces with Pelosi, et. al.). After all, the way Jones is going-- intention to defect, or not-- it's looking pretty likely that he'll be ousted next year, either in the Republican primary, or in the general election, should he switch parties.
Sadly, for him, he's fallen completely out of step with his district, and that's the fundamental point that MyDD-- and voters in his district-- would do well to bear in mind.
Voted for 5 of the Democrats 6 in 06 legislative agenda items, has twice voted to raise taxes this session, voted against 41 of the 50 anti-pork amendments, is the only Republican to join Democrats in condemning Rush Limbaugh, is the only Republican to join Democrats in signing a letter demanding the terrorist prisons at Guantanamo be closed, refused to vote to condemn Iran's President for calling for the destruction of Israel, voted against the substitute RSC budget, and has a Club for Growth rating of a 43 (Joe Schwarz territory). How exactly is Jones "solid"?
And if I did, that would be bad for the party. Jones isn't perfect, but he's solid.
Walter Jones is one of the House Republicans MOST OBNOXIOUS to the GOP. He's like the John McCain of the House except 10X, or more, worse.
It's hard to imagine any Republican not being better than Walter Jones.
He's definitely having a tough time this last year, but apart from the war, he's still had 12 years of great votes.
We know he changed parties last time to stay in the majority. His life rating is a 92 from the ACU, but in 2005 he dropped to 80, in 2006 he dropped to 79, but if he's now looking to ingratiate himself with the Democrats to prepare a shift back to the majority, he may be dropping even lower now.
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Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.
Why should we settle for a guy drifting off in a new direction in a district that should be solidly Republican?
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Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.
Because Republicans already have a perception problem with Independents. The idea of going after a moderate conservative GOP member won't look good. Fact is Republicans have nothing to blaim but themselves. He use to be a Democrat then switched to Republicans after losing and Republicans took him. Republicans knew what they were getting
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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'
But what if MyDD's right and he leaves on his own, the way he flipped last time he didn't get the benefits of being in the majority? Why shouldn't we be happy then?
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Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.
agree with you about going after moderate conservatives not looking good. However, this is a question of congressmen being appropriately suited to their districts. Have I complained in past when I've come across arguments for chucking, say, Nancy Johnson to the curb in favor of a Republican who looks like Tom Tancredo? You bet (it's Connecticut, people). But this is a conservative district (as I said, 68% Bush), and unlike CT-5 (or wherever), it should probably be represented by an actual, full-on conservative.
In my experience, what annoys independents is the perception that the GOP wants to replace moderates in moderate districts with hardliners-- not the perception that we want to field conservative candidates in conservative districts (or moderate candidates in moderate districts), though maybe that doesn't accord with how things have played out in Indiana (and if so, we should bear that in mind).
Liz Mair writes daily at www.lizmair.com
In an environment where we're going to fight for every seat, I don't tend to believe that spending VERY finite resources to take out an 80% conservative a wise move.
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Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.
That may be the understatement of the year... again this isnt about the war it's about a Congressman who has completely and totally lost his way and is now running ads in District where he wont even call himself a Republican - he says he is a "independent conservative"
Not much conservative about this tho:
Voted for 5 of the Democrats 6 in 06 legislative agenda items, has twice voted to raise taxes this session, voted against 41 of the 50 anti-pork amendments, is the only Republican to join Democrats in condemning Rush Limbaugh, is the only Republican to join Democrats in signing a letter demanding the terrorist prisons at Guantanamo be closed, refused to vote to condemn Iran's President for calling for the destruction of Israel, voted against the substitute RSC budget, and has a Club for Growth rating of a 43 (Joe Schwarz territory).
is not in the pan. However, it is certainly on the decline, as ACU ratings from 2005 and 2006 show, and that's not taking account of the number of bad votes thus far this year, which threaten to push it down further. For 2006, Jones' ACU rating stands at 79%. That's less than the likes of Fred Upton, Ken Calvert, Phil English, Shelley Moore Capito, and Jerry Weller-- all of whom strike me as the kind of people that RedStaters typically view as squishy, and all of whom come from far less conservative states, where their stances can be more easily justified as fitting with the attitudes of the general electorate.
Jones comes from a very conservative district in a very conservative state, but he's not been behaving like a very conservative congressman this year, or last year, or even in 2005, and not just because of his opposition to the war (he's taken some pretty bad votes on economic items, too, which is the reason he's got my attention).
Liz Mair writes daily at www.lizmair.com
Your signature's missing a </i> at the end, it seems.
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Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.
He was also the only Republican in the state to vote NO on the biggest expansion of the federal government in our lifetimes. That's worth no small amount of credit to me. (along with folks like Flake, Shadegg, and Toomey)
I live in the Raleigh-Durham area, and Jones is a frequent guest on talker WPTF (AM-680). He appears to have cracked in 2005 after attending one too many military funerals. However, his district is heavily military, and while they may be willing to give him a pass on cracking due to a heavy heart, I don't think they will forgive him jumping parties (since the military is 70+% R and <30% D).
Military folks know the D's aren't their friends, and they also know that Walter Jones is not going to be enough to turn that Titanic-like party around. If Jones trades in his R for a D, I think he loses the general election...
It would lead him rapidly out of office.
“The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men."