Redstate

By lobo Posted in 2008 — Comments (26) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

It’s all good and well to be ahead of unspecified national polls. However, it’s the individual states that select the delegates. To make matters worse, each state has some unique rules. Some of these states require advance planning. In particular is West Virginia which has already selected delegates who then vote in the caucus. Other trends and assumption; First, only polls from Rasmussen and Zogby are considered. Second, McCain does better in area’s where there are more moderates and independents. This is particular true of Minnesota where McCain should do very well. Also, McCain does particular well in the North East. Other areas especially in the West trend more toward Romney. At the same time, the Bible belt trend to Huckabee. In caucus states, Romney and Huckabee do well, and McCain has faired fairly badly. To understand how the delegates were distributed, see the rules posted on the bottom of the blog.

Total Delegate Counts: McCain = 577 Romney = 429 Huckabee = 270

What’s likely to happen

Alabama primary delegates 48 McCain = 20 Romney = 11 Huckabee = 17
Alaska caucus delegates 29 McCain = 2 Romney = 20 Huckabee = 6
Arizona presidential preference election 53 McCain = 53 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
Arkansas primary 34 McCain = 2 Romney = 2 Huckabee = 30
California primary 173 McCain = 50 Romney = 73 Huckabee = 15
Colorado caucus 46 McCain = 0 Romney = 46 Huckabee = 0
Connecticut primary 30 Statewide McCain = 30 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
Delaware primary 18 Statewide McCain = 18 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
Georgia presidential primary 72 McCain = 13 Romney = 13 Huckabee = 46
Illinois primary+delegate election 70 McCain = 31 Romney = 23 Huckabee = 16
Massachusetts primary 43 McCain = 13 Romney = 27 Huckabee = 6
Minnesota caucus 41 McCain = 20 Romney = 11 Huckabee = 10
Missouri primary 58 McCain = 58 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
Montana invited caucus 25 McCain = 0 Romney = 25 Huckabee = 0
New Jersey primary 52 Statewide McCain = 52 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
New York primary 101 Statewide McCain = 101 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 0
North Dakota caucus 26 statewide McCain = 0 Romney = 26 Huckabee = 0
Oklahoma primary 41 McCain = 0 Romney = 0 Huckabee = 41
Tennessee primary 55 McCain = 17 Romney = 18 Huckabee = 30
Utah primary 36 Statewide McCain = 0 Romney = 36 Huckabee = 0
West Virginia convention 18/30 McCain = 0 Romney = 6 Huckabee = 24

Total Delegate Count

Projected: McCain = 480 Romney = 337 Huckabee = 241
Actual Delegates: McCain = 97 Romney = 92 Huckabee = 29
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
Total Delegate Counts: McCain = 577 Romney = 429 Huckabee = 270

States, the system, and the delegates

Alabama primary delegates 48
Alaska caucus delegates 29 District/state convention
Arizona presidential preference election 53 Statewide WTA
Arkansas primary 34 modified WTA district + proportional at-large/bonus
California primary 173 WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus
Colorado caucus 46 district/state convention
Connecticut primary 30 Statewide WTA
Delaware primary 18 Statewide WTA
Georgia presidential preference primary 72 WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus
Illinois presidential preference primary+delegate election 70
Massachusetts primary 30 10 3 0 43 statewide proportional
Minnesota caucus 41/district/state convention
Missouri primary 58 statewide WTA
Montana invited caucus 25 Statewide WTA
New Jersey primary 52 Statewide WTA
New York primary 101 Statewide WTA
North Dakota caucus 26 statewide WTA
Oklahoma primary 41 district WTA + at-large/bonus WTA
Tennessee primary 55 District proportional (WTA 50%+)
Utah primary 36 Statewide WTA
West Virginia convention 18/30 multiple ballot WTA

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ALABAMA Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
45 of 48 of Alabama's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Alabama Presidential Primary: 21 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 7 congressional districts (each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates); 24 delegates proportionally allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level; congressional district delegates are allocated in a manner that primarily depends on whether or not a presidential contender has received a majority of the vote in the district (as explained below)

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ALASKA Republican District CAUCUSES
These Distict Caucuses in each election district chooses the respective district's delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention. There is no formal system applied in the District Caucus to relate the presidential preference of the participants to the choice of the election district's delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention.

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ARIZONA Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
50 of 53 of Arizona's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in today's Arizona Presidential Primary.

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ARKANSAS Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
31 of 34 of Arkansas's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Arkansas Presidential Primary: 12 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 4 congressional districts (each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates); 19 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide with a mandatory 10% threshold required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level. Delegates are pledged in a manner that primarily depends on whether or not a presidential contender has received a majority of the vote in either a congressional district or statewide.

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COLORADO Republican Precinct CAUCUSES
Caucuses meet in each precinct to choose delegates to the County Assemblies and District Conventions: there is no formal system applied in the Precinct Caucus to relate the presidential preference of the participants to the choice of the precinct's delegates to the Colorado County Assemblies and District Conventions; however, a non-binding Presidential Preference poll of the delegates will be conducted.

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CONNECTICUT Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
27 of Connecticut's 30 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide in today's Connecticut Presidential Primary.

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DELAWARE Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
All 18 of Delaware's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide in today's Delaware Presidential Primary.

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GEORGIA Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
All 72 of Georgia's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Georgia Presidential Primary: 39 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 13 congressional districts (each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates) and 33 delegates- including the 3 party leaders (the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Georgia's Republican Party)- allocated statewide. Delegates are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in either a congressional district or statewide.

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ILLINOIS Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
57 of Illinois' 70 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be directly elected in the Illinois Presidential Primary: this is a so-called "Loophole" primary (a Delegate Selection Primary combined with an Advisory "beauty contest" presidential preference vote); thus, the popular vote in the Illinois Republican Primary will have nothing whatsoever to do with the actual presidential preference of the 57 separately elected National Convention delegates (each of the State's 19 congressional districts is assigned 2 to 4 National Convention delegates- the number of delegates assigned to each district being based on the relative strength of that district's vote for the Republican presidential nominee in the general election).

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MASSACHUSETTS Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
40 of 43 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Massachusetts Presidential Primary: 30 delegates allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 10 congressional districts (each district is allocated 3 delegates); 10 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

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MINNESOTA Republican Precinct CAUCUSES
Caucuses in each precinct will choose the precinct's delegates to the BPOU [="Basic Political Organization Unit" (the next higher tier: County, State Senate District or State House District)] Convention. There will also be a non-binding straw poll re: Presidential Preference held in coordination with these Precinct Caucuses.

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MISSOURI Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
All 58 of Missouri's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.

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MONTANA Republican County Committee CAUCUSES
Each County Republican Central Committee convenes for the purpose of holding a Presidential Candidate Preference Caucus. All 25 of Montana's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide in today's caucuses. (NOTE: This is not a delegate distribution event open to the ordinary voter: only "credentialed voters"- that is: Republicans in Party leadership positions or Republican elective officeholders- may participate).

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NEW JERSEY Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
All of New Jersey's 52 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide in today's New Jersey Presidential Primary.

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NEW YORK Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
87 of New York's 101 delegates to the Republican National Convention are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide in today's New York Presidential Primary.

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NORTH DAKOTA Republican CAUCUSES
All 26 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's North Dakota Republican Party Caucuses: if one candidate receives more than 2/3 of the statewide vote, that candidate receives all 26 delegates; otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally to those candidates receiving 15% or more of the vote.

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OKLAHOMA Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
38 of Oklahoma's 41 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Oklahoma Presidential Primary: 15 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 5 congressional district (each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates); 23 delegates allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. Delegates are allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary at either level

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TENNESSEE Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
39 of Tennessee's 55 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Tennessee Presidential Primary: 27 delegates, 3 from each of the State's 9 congressional districts, allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results in that district; 12 delegates allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. If a candidate receives 66.6% of the vote statewide and 66.6% in each and every congressional district, that candidate receives all of Tennessee's delegates. Otherwise, the statewide and District delegates are allocated according to the rules described below.

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UTAH Republican PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
All 36 of Utah's delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide

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WEST VIRGINIA State PRESIDENTIAL CONVENTION
All 18 At-Large Republican National Convention delegates from West Virginia are pledged to the winner of a majority of the delegates attending today's State Presidential Convention (for which said delegates were chosen from 1 through 14 January last): a maximum of 3 Roll Calls will take place until a majority is secured by a presidential contender, with the third- if necessary- taking place between the top two finshers, short of a majority, on the second Roll Call.