The First Post-Macaca Straw Poll
By machiavel Posted in 2008 — Comments (48) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The results of the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll are in. The poll was posted on the RS homepage over the weekend, and first-choice results are as follows (full results with RS results in parentheses).
Giuliani 24.6% (22.0%) Gingrich 21.1% (19.5%) Romney 12.8% (15.8%) Allen 11.5% (11.3%) Tancredo 6.7% (4.5%) McCain 6.4% (6.7%) Hagel 2.8% (3.3%) Brownback 2.5% (3.2%) Huckabee 1.5% (1.8%) Frist 1.1% (0.9%) Pataki 0.3% (0.3%)
The Macaca incident has clearly devastated Allen’s numbers in the blogosphere, his stronghold. He used to have sky-high favorability, largely because he hadn’t done anything to offend anyone. He also used to run first or second (tangling with Giuliani) with 20% to 30% in polls like this. Once undefined, he has now been defined in a hugely negative way, dropping to fourth with 11.5% support.
The only true direct comparison is the results for individual blogs. From July to August, Allen dropped 23.9% in net favorability among RedState readers. RealClearPolitics also ran the poll both months – and probably has an audience that’s even more plugged-in politically than RedState. On that site, Allen dropped an astonishing 41.6% points in a month, and now has 6.5% first place votes. Allen probably still retains some “true-believer” support among the more conservative sites of the blogosphere. Let’s see if that holds up.
Who’s the new conservative “it” candidate? Newt! The conservative mantle has shifted to Newt over the last few months. He got a huge boost last month for being all over the Israel-Hezbollah war. Allen’s implosion has given Newt’s people a reason to stick around, at least for a while. Vis Numar makes this development the headline, but inaccurately notes that his numbers went from +1% to +40% in a month. That was actually from a poll taken earlier in the year, but it highlights how far Newt has come.
Bottom line: It looks like Newt’s decision to stay out the race until November of ’07 could throw the race into some turmoil, with all the major campaigns calculating what happens if Newt gets in. He’s clearly trying to play kingmaker and anoint the preferred conservative if he doesn’t run, and numbers like this suggest he could pull it off.
Giuliani and Romney show positive movement. There’s a consistent pattern of Romney and Giuliani momentum among a few of the bigger blogs participating in the poll. Among RedState readers, Romney moved up a net 10.9% and Giuliani a net 10.8% in acceptability. On RealClearPolitics, Romney moved up 18.9% to Giuliani’s 12.5%. On Blogs for Bush, Giuliani moved up 22.8% and Romney was up 14.8%.