Sistani Bigfoots Sadr
By Mark I Posted in Foreign Affairs | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Promoted from blogs. - Moe Lane
There is an interesting report in the New York Times today that, if true, could spell the beginning of the new beginning in Iraq. The Times reports that reclusive and highly respected Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has given his blessing to a plan for a new governing coalition including Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds.
This news holds potentially big implications for the future of Iraq, and for the safety of Moqtada al-Sadr.
Read on…
The political realignment is designed to build a power base for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that will give him cover to break with his most powerful and troublesome backer, the firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Sadr’s militia, the Mahdi Army, has been causing trouble in Iraq since the summer of 2004, when he led an uprising in the city of Najaf, briefly occupying Shia Islam’s holiest shrine. Sadr’s troops were roundly beaten by American forces, but he survived, with Sistani’s help, and was given a seat at the power table. Sadr deputies now hold 30 seats in Iraq’s Parliament and head 6 of 38 Cabinet ministries.
Sistani has been the power behind the throne in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Sistani’s efforts have been directed primarily at keeping rival Shiite factions together and stressing the need for a unified Shia political block to ensure that Shiites are not dominated by the Sunnis again as they were under Saddam. But it appears that the need for Shia unity has been surpassed in his mind by the need for a functioning government, so long as the Shia coalition remains intact. Here’s how the Times puts it:
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein the cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has been the spiritual custodian of Shiite political dominance in Iraq, corralling the fractious Shiite parties into an alliance to rule the country.
But Ayatollah Sistani has grown increasingly distressed as the Shiite-led government has proved incapable of taming the violence and improving public services, Shiite officials say. He now appears to be backing away from his demand that the Shiite bloc play the dominant political role and that it hold together at all costs, Iraqi and Western officials say.
As the effective arbiter of a Shiite role in the planned coalition, the ayatollah is considered critical to the Iraqi and American effort.
American officials have been told by intermediaries that Ayatollah Sistani “has blessed the idea of forming a moderate front,” according to a senior American official. “We wouldn’t have gotten this far without his support.”
President Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, wrote in a classified memo last month that the Americans should “engage Sistani to reassure and seek his support for a new, nonsectarian political movement.” In recent weeks, President Bush has received Shiite and Sunni politicians at the White House to encourage them to move forward with the coalition, officials said.
Recall the endless parades of emissaries sent by Paul Bremer from the Coalition Provisional Authority to the Ayatollah’s Najaf home seeking his input? The strategy worked to provide Iraq with a governmental structure. His backing of Iraq’s constitution was key to the document’s passage. Now, the Administration is turning to Sistani to help with the growing Sadr problem.
Sadr is said to be viewed in the Shia clerical hierarchy as an upstart. He is a relatively junior level cleric with a famous name—his father was a well respected cleric who was murdered by Saddam’s regime--who has attempted to wield the influence of a more accomplished religious leader. For this, he is not very well respected among his peers. His fiery sermons, however, have appealed to poor Shiites, especially the young men. That popularity, not any particular religious scholarship, has given him his stature and filled the ranks of his militia.
This is not the first time that Sistani has reined in the young radical Sadr. Sistani was instrumental in securing the end of the siege of the Imam Ali shrine, which Sadr’s fighters had occupied in 2004. Sadr made his move in Najaf while Sistani was in England for medical treatment. The Interim Iraqi Government and the provincial governor had called for an end to the violence in Najaf to no result. But, it only took Sistani crossing the border back into Iraq for Sadr to blink and for the siege of the shrine to end. Sadr, it seems, knows where the power truly lies.
Sistani, for his part, extended his protection to Sadr. In the deal reached between the two, Sadr was given immunity from murder charges that the interim government was pursuing. Perhaps Sistani did this out of his desire to keep all of the Shia factions pulling in the same direction. This time, Sadr may not be so lucky. By signing onto the plan to marginalize him, Sistani has abandoned Sadr to his fate. His cloak of protection has been lifted from Sadr’s neck and any move Sadr makes against the new political alignment will be seen as a move against Sistani.
If the Bush Administration deserves any credit for this turn of events, it may well be seen as the singular act of political acumen that won Iraq. By turning again to Sistani, and undercutting Sadr, the Administration has effectively cut the head off of the snake and is ready to deal with the remaining parts piecemeal. The new Iraqi governing coalition, should it come to pass, combined with a surge in troop levels to secure Baghdad could be a turning point in the struggle. The next step will be to change the rules of engagement so that American and Iraqi forces can take out any actors hostile to the government, regardless of their political, religious, or sectarian identities.
It is always darkest just before the dawn. Sistani’s blessing could represent the first rays of sunshine on the horizon.
At the moment, he seems to be falling into the position of a follower rather than a leader in the coalition. Ironically, the reason for his hesitation is concern about losing power.
I'm hoping he'll see that this is going to happen with or without him. He needs to be on the right bus before he worries about whether or not he's going to be driving it.
If a new Coalition with a new PM comes in, it'll be he that has the mandate to reign free of Sadr.
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Run like Reagan!
the two Shiite leaders who recently talked to President Bush, who were thinking about a vote of no-confidence for al-Maliki?
Al-Sadr has to be thrown overboard, but a government with majority support needs to remain, without the Shiites splitting in too many different directions.
If Sistani is working with the Shiite leaders who want to dump al-Sadr but include Sunnis and Kurds in a unity government, al-Maliki would probably be eager to jump on Sistani's bandwagon to avoid being marginalized with al-Sadr.
On another note, why couldn't Newsweek have published its article about the booming Iraqi economy BEFORE the 2006 elections? Back then, of course, the program was to blame Bush and the Republicans for everything going wrong in Iraq--only after the Democrats win the majority can any credit be given for what goes right. Not to the Democrats, of course--they won't have the majority until next month!
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
The meeting would not have happened otherwise. Indeed, al-Hakim probably served as an intermediary.
The question is how do you take out al-Sadr and his Revolutionary Guards Corps handlers without causing serious blowback in Sadr City? The last thing the Army wants is for the Badr Brigades to throw in with al-Sadr's Men In Black. Sistani must have received some news, through al-Hakim, that Bush is planning on cutting the Moqtada down to size. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if we started funneling money to the Badr Brigades, a latter day Shi'a version of the Freikorps.
Militia politics is wicked, but if it helps us to marginalize the Moqtada, let's have fun while we're at it.
What will help us is if we can capture some IRGC advisors and parade them in front of the cameras.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
We have heard reports about Sistani being a moderate and wanting to help heal Iraq for years now, but he hasn't ever followed up. I will believe when I see it, and Sistani moves to isolate Sadr.
Hopefully Sistani has a personal security detachment that makes the Secret Service look like the deputies from "Reno 911!" Even if he isn't helping us, him getting assassinated would really hurt the Iraqi effort.
I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Alan Greenspan
He has acted in the past to protect Sadr. Just what is his vision for his nation. Is he a Washington or a Somoza ?