Redstate

By Martin A. Knight Posted in 2008 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

[1] Begin campaign work-up for Republican members of the Senate up for re-election in 2008 ... immediately. Let's not forget that Republicans have a much larger number of vulnerable seats to defend in the 2008 cycle so specific note ought to be taken as soon as possible of Senators and the possible open seats due to retirements that are likely to draw top tier challengers and candidates from the other side of the aisle.

2009 Class Republican Senators should be urged to signal their commitment to run for re-election or retire by August 2007 at the latest. The fact remains that preparation is at least 50% of victory and we need to have our candidates fully muscled up by the time campaign season begins in earnest; and yes, that would be before the day of the Primaries so getting a settled candidate - in the case of challengers and open seats - before then prevents us from starting out too far behind. But there's no need to be all gung-ho about it. And immediately does not mean right now. Wait until a month after the 110th is sworn in and begin testing the waters and doing some environmental work to define yourself before the Fourth Estate starts doing it on the Democrats' behalf.

In my non-expert opinion, the following five Senators are the most vulnerable, or in the case of their retiring, their open seats would present the most serious fights for us to keep.

Read on . . .

WAYNE ALLARD (R-COLORADO): If he does still intend to retire, it's important he let the appropriate organizations know as far in advance as possible. One of the things that made Nighthorse's seat very difficult to hold on to was that he waited until it was quite far gone into the election cycle to finally decide he was going to retire. That hurt because the Democrats ran an excellent candidate, a liberal with a very carefully manufactured moderate reputation, and the GOP was still struggling between Coors and Schaffer well after Salazar had already started his campaign and was polling far ahead in the race. Our problem in 2008 is that Colorado has become a far more unfriendly environment for Republicans since Allard's re-election in 2002 - the Democrats have since flipped both Houses of the State Legislature and the Governor's office. So if Allard does intend to run again, he needs to start putting his campaign into high gear well before the end of 2007.

PETE DOMENICI (R-NEW MEXICO): New Mexico may have voted Red in 2004, but it is still a state with a much stronger Democratic Party infrastructure. Pete Domenici has indicated before that the 110th Congress would be his last in the Senate and should he go on to retire this seat would have a 50% chance of flipping to the Democrats. If current Governor Bill Richardson decides to abandon his White House hopes for 2008 and run for the Senate seat, the seat's likelihood of flipping goes to something like 60%. If Domenici decides to run, this seat most likely moves to the safe column, if he decides to retire, popular former Governor Gary Johnson (Richardson's predecessor) may be the best the GOP has to offer from New Mexico. From a fiscal and libertarian conservative point of view, Johnson is very attractive - this is a man who stared down the New Mexico Fourth Estate and the Democrat controlled Legislature and vetoed 750 bills on fiscal grounds alone in his first term. Another possibility is former Gubernatorial candidate John Sanchez.
UPDATE: Apparently, Domenici has decided to go for another term. That is good.

NORM COLEMAN (R-MINNESOTA): Unlike Allard or Domenici, Coleman is very likely going to run for re-election. Unfortunately, like Allard, his state has become a great deal less friendly to the GOP since 2002 - the Democrats only failed to win the Governor's office but gained strong control of everything else in 2006. Minnesota was once universally thought to be trending purple from its Blue origins, but after 2006, it's obvious it's rapidly going back to its roots. The Democrats of Minnesota have a deep bench from which to pick a good candidate so Coleman cannot just rest on his laurels and expect easy meat like Garrison Keillor or Al Franken. In the current anti-GOP environment, if it endures till 2008, even those two moonbats could possibly win. Coleman has to start his campaign by the fall of 2007 or we stand the possibility of Minnesota not just failing to give us a Republican version of a Senator Kennedy, but actually giving us a Democrat version of a Senator Hatch.

JOHN SUNUNU (R-NEW HAMPSHIRE): Sununu is running for re-election. But, like Coleman and Allard, he is going to be running in a state that is Bluer than it was when he was first elected in 2002. Actually, he would be running in a state that is EXTREMELY Bluer than it was in 2002. The Democrats flipped the New Hampshire House on November 7th - this is by defeating 81 Republican incumbents as well as re-electing Democrat Governor John Lynch with 74% of the vote. New Hampshire also replaced both its Republican Congressmen with Democrats in addition to handing the New Hampshire state Senate to the Democrats. The last bastion of the GOP in the Northeast has fallen spectacularly and we have a freshman Senator up for re-election in 2008. If John Lynch decides to go for it, Sununu is in for a very nasty fight - and he may even start out as the underdog. Heck, if any half-way decent Democrat is nominated, Sununu would still have to get his campaign into high gear by fall 2007.

GORDON SMITH (R-OREGON): Smith is the type of moderate Democrats tend to be lucky enough to have in abundance. He's the GOP's version of Ken Salazar - a Conservative with a moderate veneer. But Oregon is still a Blue state and it is a fact of American politics that elected Republicans from Blue states/districts endanger themselves when they vote so much with their party's conservative majority. Red state Democrats, on the other hand, can vote the liberal party line and still return to their states with their "moderate" bona fides still intact thanks to their friends in the Press. But Gordon Smith is apparently quite popular in Oregon so his seat is likely safer than it may appear. If he decides to retire, though I'm unaware of any such intention, then this seat stands a more than 50% chance of flipping to the other side. But then again, even if he does intend to run for re-election, this is a Blue state, so complacency should be out of the question; Smith has to get his campaign up and running before the end of 2007, or make a decision on retiring well before then so his replacement can be on top of things by the end of next year.

JOHN WARNER (R-VIRGINIA): John Warner is getting on in years and has led quite a few people to believe that 2008 would be his last year in the Senate. If he does decide to retire, and former Governor Mark Warner decides to throw his hat in for the Democrats, not only would the Republican have to contend with a Democrat party flush with victory after winning both the Governor's race and snatching away George Allen's supposedly safe seat in the Senate a year later, he would have to contend with a thoroughly partisan Washington Post that is absolutely besotted with Mark Warner. Even if Mark Warner chooses not to run, another possibly very strong candidate the Democrats could put up would be retired Air Force General Paula Kennedy. In other words, Virginia Democrats have a formidable bench, and only a very spirited Republican campaign would be able to keep this seat from flipping. This would require an early commitment to run again or retire from John Warner so we can have a candidate as early as possible in the latter case. This is, of course, a moot point if John Warner decides to run again. One can only hope that John Warner would not be too busy safeguarding "Senate comity" to properly campaign for his own re-election - it might offend Ted Kennedy for him to be so "un-collegial" and not let the Democrats just have it.
UPDATE: Mr. Comity is showing signs of wanting another go at it. Good.

The most important thing to take away from all this is that we cannot afford complacency in any way whatsoever - whether challenging or defending. Absolutely no seats should be considered a safe seat for Republicans. Someone like James Inhofe may seem safe but if Oklahoma's popular Democrat Governor Brad Henry decides to challenge him or go for the open seat, the GOP would have to go all out to keep this seat from slipping into the Democrats' hands. Mike Easley in North Carolina going after Liddy Dole would cause headaches for us as well so it's best if we take the adage that fortune favors the prepared to heart.

But, in the end, the fact is that it wouldn't really take much for John Ensign to outdo Elizabeth Dole's horrible record at the NRSC; if he can get all these folks aforementioned to start their engines by August 2007, that would have him at twice the NRSC chairman Elizabeth Dole was. If he should get us credible challengers for Red State Democrats like Tim Johnson, Max Baucus, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor and John Rockefeller, he would be ten times better an NRSC chairman than Dole. Heck, as a matter of principle and strategy, I think he should get recruit challengers for every single one of the twelve Democrats running for re-election in 2008 - i.e. I wonder if Rhode Island Governor Don Carcieri would be up for challenging Jack Reed?