The Way Back To The Majority [2]: Start Recruiting For House Candidates

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The Way Back To The Majority [1]: Start 2008 Senate Campaigns Early

[2] Despite the near universal grassroots disappointment at the re-elections of John Boehner and Roy Blunt to the leadership of the House Republican Caucus, they're, for good or worse, the frontmen of our team in the House of Representatives and from their rhetoric in the run-up to the election, it would appear that they've rediscovered religion. That's all to the good.

But apart from all the swearing to hold their feet to the fire, the next most pressing job for those of us in the Dextrosphere is to help them find and recruit the troops necessary to present the voters with a clear choice on November the 4th, 2008. We can afford to take most of 2007 for that task. But we should have solid candidates inline by February 2008. 2006 has proven that it's in our best interests for the advancement of the principles we all hold dear to play a significant role in the GOP's candidate recruitment efforts. This is something Ed Morissey has decided to work on as a matter of high priority; he outlines it in this post on Captain's Quarters - he calls it the "First Principles Project."

Read on . . .

We have to determine what will satisfy us as a group in the next ten years. If we can actually {1} shrink the federal government, {2} eliminate pork and earmarks, {3} confirm judges that will stop legislating from the bench, {4} protect private property, {5} eliminate the levers of corruption in government, and {6} secure the nation from infiltration and attack, then conservatives will have won a generational achievement -- and those are the issues on which we should focus.

In order to do that, we need to solve the personnel problem in both chambers of Congress. Given that our choices of leadership have become so constrained that Trent Lott represents the lesser of two evils to some, then it is incumbent on conservatives to start finding better choices for these offices. Over the next few weeks, I'll be dusting off my Not One Dime More domain and developing some initiatives designed to do just that. I'm tentatively calling this the First Principles Project, and I'll eventually need plenty of help from the CQ community.

Right now, though, here's your task: find viable candidates for House and Senate seats. That process has to start now. We waited too long to develop and champion challengers in the midterm cycle; we need to start finding the men and women who will follow the First Principles and use them to build broad coalitions and charge into office in 2008. I'm hoping to set up a new clearinghouse for these potential candidates where CQ readers can get to know them and their positions and start supporting them early enough to make a significant difference. I'm hoping to partner with other bloggers on this project.

The Captain is right; the Dextrosphere needs to become more participatory and start doing more than just offering analysis and criticism (and, to be fair, praise when it's due). We need to be ready to get our hands dirty rather than standing aloof as if we're too pure to join the fray. The Left had us beaten in this cycle because they got organized and did a great deal of groundwork for their candidates.

I believe the first step in doing this is for the big dogs of the Dextrosphere to get intimately acquainted (appropiately of course) with the incoming Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee; that would be Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma. Interestingly, he is currently the only registered Native American (Chickasaw) in Congress. Either way, I know it's fun to be anti-establishment, but there's really no need to work at cross-purposes when it can be avoided. As the past cycle and more recently the elections for the House GOP Leadership proved, the Dextrosphere is no way near as influential as it could be.

The Dextrosphere needs to move beyond being a place where elected Republicans post Press Releases and then refuse to interact. On the whole, I think Redstate probably stands the best chance of the being the major New Media powerhouse of the GOP (so long as it continues to remain the most viable vehicle for Conservatism). The number of new faces (or logins) we're seeing since Blue Tuesday is very encouraging. But not being a Director and knowing that I'll not be the one paying for server space, nor will I be the one paying for Administration, or responsible for moderating, I can only make suggestions.

The first is that Redstate should have subsites/sections for each state i.e. al.redstate.com (Alabama), nh.redstate.com (New Hampshire), ca.redstate.com (California), etc. Second is that there should be a nominations section/subsite/crosstab that would, if possible, demand specifics as to the state and constituency the nominated candidate is meant to represent. Just think; we could have people who are willing to give it a go for Congress, for Governor or even the local school board, introducing themselves to the Conservative grassroots here.

That said, focussing on the House, specifically on the seats Republicans lost on November 7th, I am taking Scott Elliot's far more expert opinion on the issue. He estimates over at Election Projection that the Democrats that won these seats from Republicans are going to prove to be one-term wonders come 2008 - provided, of course, that the GOP does not mess things up for itself and create another Blue Wave.

     # Texas CD-22
     # Florida CD-16
     # Kansas CD-2
     # Kentucky CD-3
     # Ohio CD-18
     # Pennsylvania CD-4
     # Pennsylvania CD-8
     # Pennsylvania CD-10
     # New York CD-19
     # California CD-11

According to Scott, the following seats are a great deal more difficult because of the Democrats here are the types that incumbency can provide a solid shield for. These are the second tier winnable seats.

     # Arizona CD-5
     # Arizona CD-8
     # Florida CD-22
     # Indiana CD-8
     # Indiana CD-9
     # Minnesota CD-1
     # North Carolina CD-11
     # New York CD-20
     # New York CD-24
     # Pennsylvania CD-7
     # Wisconsin CD-8

These next set of seats would require a Red Wave or star candidates. Tom Cole or whoever would replace him after the coming cycle would have to have a banner recruitment year or a fantastic pro-Republican environment to match this one's Democrat tilt, or maybe even both, in order to win these ones back.

     # Colorado CD-7
     # Indiana CD-2
     # Iowa CD-1
     # Iowa CD-2
     # New Hampshire CD-1
     # New Hampshire CD-2

Apparently, according to Scott, the two Connecticut seats, i.e. Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons' seats, are pretty much gone for good.

I confess that I lack the Blogging Caesar's expertise but I'm never been the type of person who believes in electoral lost causes. Call me crazy but if a Democrat can come so close to winning in Wyoming, then it is possible that a Republican can give Rahm Emanuel a serious scare in his supposedly safe IL-CD5 seat - I truly believe that there's virtually no constituency we can't compete in.

Either way, the same thing as with the Senate applies. Complacency and its constant companion, a lack of preparedness, is the enemy. John Hostettler's Congressional District gave Bush 60% of its votes in 2004 and yet threw him out in 2006 - something I'm certain he thought was impossible just about ten months ago. So I think that we should not make the mistake of thinking Melissa Hart can get the seat she lost (PA-CD4) back without a serious amount of effort - anyway, I'm sure she's learnt her lesson and is likely to make Jason Altmire sweat bullets to keep the seat in 2008 - should she, as I hope, decide to reclaim that seat.

We need replacements for Don Sherwood, John Sweeney, Richard Pombo, etc. Barring 2008 being another Blue year, I think Northup, Hart, Chocola, Ryun, Taylor (Van) etc. can run again. But more than that we also need to get candidates to would make 19:00 to 23:59 November 4th 2008 a very torrid evening for people like Lincoln Davis and John Salazar.

Chris Lilik would be fantastic as would his brother Greg.

Barbara Cubin is a lousy GOP candidate on a number of different levels that nobody else here probably cares about. :) However, we need better representation in WY so our elections aren't nailbiters like they were last time. I wrote and sent letters to the WY GOP party headquarters and Cubin's office directly asking for a better candidate in 2008. We'll see what happens. We have a lot of good state reps and senators that I'm sure would love to take the leap into national politics.

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Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same. -The Fray, "All At Once"

Dick Cheney needs to run for a Wyoming Senate seat and Lynn Cheney needs to run for the Wyoming House seat until the other Senate seat comes open.

Wyoming would quickly have one of the most powerful and influential congressional delegations in the country. :-)

Lynn Cheney should be the next VP. She is smart as hell and tough as nails. She knows the inside, as 2nd lady (is there a better title?) and as chair of the NEA. She is a published author of scholarly articles as well as children's books. Go Lynne Go!

I really disagree about the Simmons seat. That is a real "swing" district - and has been for years. Gedjenson hung on through two really hair-raising elections in the Clinton years (winning one by 21 votes and the other by less than 1%). Simmons lost by less than 100 votes. If he ran again, he might win.

I have to think that former State Senator Cathy Cook (R-Groton) is probably about the only GOP'er who could challenge Courtney in that district should Simmons decide to not run again. Unfortunately, she was demolished this year running for Comptroller (she lost by more than 2-1) just like everyone else downballot from Jodi Rell, so I don't know how that helps her for a run at federal office in a district that has been trending Dem at the Federal level for some time.

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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"

This was really a squeaker, and Simmons should give it another try--he's a good candidate, but was victim of a bad year. Sam Gejdensen (D) never saw him coming until he had lost...

If we really want to shake things up in CT, why not run Ann Coulter--she's from Connecticut! She might not win, but this would make for some great debates...

If this is the Dextrosphere, what is Daily Kos? The Sinistrosphere? It sounds pretty sinister over there!

The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.

Add Congressional term limits. A seat in congress should not be a career. I often wonder how many good people never had a chance to serve in congress because entrenched incumbents made any attempt to challenge an excercise in futility, until they died or were investigated/indicted.

Paul Bettencourt needs to be heavily recruited to run for the TX22 seat. We need him in Congress. He would be one of everyone's favorite congressmen in very short order.

Joe Negron needs to run again for FL16. Once his name is on the ballot and he has time to wage a full campaign, I have no doubt that he'll win it back and be a great congressman.

Give him a full campaign cycle and he'll take the district back easily.

Chris Chocola was an awesome congressman who should not have been defeated. We need to get him back in congress next term, for sure.

In a presidential election year, I think that Van Taylor - an excellent candidate - stands a much better shot at knocking off Chet Edwards. If it doesn't happen in 2008, though, the GOP is going to have to wait for (a) redistricting or (b) Chet Edwards' retirement.

Alberto Gonzales would be a perfect choice for this majority Hispanic district that is represented by white Austin uber-liberal Lloyd Doggett. AGAG has the name ID, intellect, moderate image, and Hispanic heritage to knock him off.

and I am willing to put my money where my mouth is to it come to pass. We can be a force if keep stepping up our organiztion efforts.

"It ain't over till it's over"
Yoggi Berra

Jim Oberstar has served about 39 terms in House. If he doesn't retire this time, it will be soon. MN-08 covers the north - western quadrent of the state, and is mostly rural (I belive Alexandira, Fergus Falls, and Detroit Lakes, all at about 25k, are the only big cities). I grew up there, and while I am no expert on the whole of MN-08, I think that if there is an open seat, there is a good chance of a pickup if we run real conservative, Bachmann type. God, guns, and gays are still big issues there.

Evil prevails only when good men do nothing.

Is pretty Democratic. Kerry got 53% of the vote there. It's got Duluth in it, which is still reliably Democratic. Our better hope in Minnesota would be for Colin Peterson to step aside in MN-7, but he's younger than Oberstar and with them freshly in the majority, I imagine the Dems won't see too many retirements in the next cycle.

Rep. Peterson votes with Republicans almost always on all of the issues! It's better to not risk losing this seat to a much more liberal candidate from either political party in the future.

not 08. But you are right, the arrowhead region is the DFL's biggest stronghold outside of the Twin Cities.

Evil prevails only when good men do nothing.

Tony Garza is the only Republican to ever win a county-wide election in Cameron County in TX27 (Brownsville), is the former Secretary of State under Gov. George W. Bush, was the first Hispanic Republican to hold statewide elective office in Texas when he was elected to be a member of the Texas Railroad Commission (which oversees state oil revenues and has nothing to do with railroads.)

Additionally, since he is married to the richest woman in Mexico, he can run a self-funded campaign to knock off the aging Solomon Ortiz.

Any GOPer beaten by less than 5 points and under age 60 should run again in 2008. Most were from red districts and in a presidential year will be able to tie opponents to Hillary or whoever.

It will also help if we actually put a legitimate name on th ballot in the districts that are supposed to be safe GOP districts. (ie: Foley's district and Delay's district)

Whos'e bright idea was it to give Tom Foley a Blackberry anyway?

"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"

For the New Hampshire seats, we need to recruit libertarians to run under the Republican Party's label to win both of those seats back.

New Hampshire will probably be a lost cause for conservatives for awhile now that the entire state has continued to tread very heavily to the blue side, and many liberals are still continuing to move there in large numbers from surrounding blue states-especially from Massachusetts.

Surely the Republican Party in that state hasn't conceded. Let the Republicans of that state pick a good candidate that represents them.
--
It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones. -- Calvin Coolidge

I think that there must be enough Republicans and Libertarians combined to get a good Libertarian to run as a Republican (like Ron Paul did in TX14) and win back those seats. In fact, I might not mind shipping Ron Paul to New Hampshire if he can get elected there so that we can get a better representative here in TX14. LOL

Those DINOs should't be apart of the Republican Party...
O wait if you do that you setting yourself up for a being in the minority for a very long time.

Good Point

It was a really bad GOP year there to be sure, but under this logic, Dems should have given up on Washington State after '94. Hodes will probably have the state until a bad Dem year, but Shea-Porter is a debacle waiting to happen. We should challenge her strongly.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

is at the top of the ticket, I think the GOP gets both NH seats back with decent candidates. They LOVE that guy up there and he'll probably win that state by several points. I think he can help us out west too in NM, NV, and CO; all states bordering his home state.

"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"

I like Chocola a lot, and he represented me while in college. But I've spoken via e-mail with the South Bend Tribune columnist/reporter who covered the race, and he said that Chocola said he will not run again for Congress. I'm afraid that Donnelly may be there for a while. Remember, it was held by Roehmer before Chocola.

...if Chocola doesn't run to take back his seat.

Take a scarlet red district, say KS-2.

Who are the Republican state Senators and state Representatives and what percentage of the district do they represent? Who are the mayors, the city council people, the county officials, the civic leaders, the departed celebrities? (Think Heath Shuler.) With help from folks in the district, make an exhaustive list of 20 or 30 names.

Then start narrowing it down. Who will stay true to these first principles? AND who can win (including analysis of vote-getting and fundraising ability at the state level)? If we are EVER stuck with a choice between an electable RINO and an unelectable conservative, never, ever, ever let it be for lack of effort in trying to get an electable conservative into the race.

The finalists we profile on RedState or other similar venues as the bright rising stars of the conservative movement. If Rightroots duplicates what ActBlue intends to do with draft funds, start raising money so they will have an in-built infrastructure when they get into the race.

A number of folks have expressed grave disappointment in our party committees. Fine. Then go BE the party committee. Go do the recruiting (it starts with Google). And if you want to see how good recruiting is done, check out Michele Bachmann (MN-6). Figure out your ideal Congressperson for KS-2 before the primary field even shapes up. None of this is new. The NRCC does this kind of spadework all the time. The difference is they're not looking out for who will eliminate earmarks and stay true to conservative principles -- only who can hold the seat. If we're gonna do this, we have to do it right, and that means being an extra eyes and ears and doing our own recruiting. We're not going to get perfect candidates every time -- occassionally, we'll have to make the choice of a Rob Simmons over a Chris Shays in a bluish-purple district if an exhaustive search finds no true conservative who is a good fit for the seat. But at least when we have a candidate, we will be fully vested in the process.

The good news is that this will be a Presidential year, and the red/blue divide will return with a vengeange. Casual conservative voters who sat out a midterm will be voting for the first time for Congress in these bright red districts. And Nancy Boyda will not be able to hide from Hillapelosi.

The time is now. Let's get to work.

First why I agree with some of those seats, especially Kansas 2, I think the Penn. seats will be harder to win back. When was the last time that state went Republican? I think the only one you have a shot at is the seat lost by the mistress beater, sorry I had to say that :).

Kentucky 3rd was made for Democrats and it took a moderate Republican to hold it for that long. I don't see that as a real shot.

I think Arizona 5 you might have a point if Hayworth comes back for a rematch. Other than that I don't see it changing.

Finally, Colorado 7 and NH 2 are gone. The incumbant advantage made that seat basically safe. He won by a large enough margin so a rematch isn't even thinkable.

John McCain would be the best candidate for many of these districts. BTW, I hope Republicans in Tom DeLay's can find someone better than Sheila Sekula-Gibbs to run against Nick Lampson.

Any candidate who lost by 5,000 or less should give it a try again. Simmons, Johnson, Negron should all give it a try. Especially Negron.

I think the most importnat issue will be who is at the top of the presidential ticket. Many of these normally conservative districts will have a hard time if Hillary runs up top.

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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason

Didn't Gibbs win the special election, where her name was on the ballot? Why couldn't she win the general next time?
--
It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones. -- Calvin Coolidge

I believe the problem is that she's not that Conservative. She's way too squishy for what is quite a Red district.

She would still beat Nick Lampson in the general election in 2008, but we need to heavily recruit Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt. He is very, very popular and he is a rock solid conservative. He's been fighting the liberal mayor of Houston, a former Clinton Administration energy undersecretary, over spending tooth-and-nail.

Additionally, Bettencourt is the type of strategic thinker that we need in Congress. He does this flash presentation on voting trends, etc. that is really amazing. He could use those skills to let GOP lawmakers know when they are getting away from the base on key issues, they put themselves in danger.

After a couple terms in Congress, he should be named the permanent Chairman of the NRCC. We'd see House gains every year until only deep blue districts were left being represented by Democrats. LOL

 
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