Live Wyoming Caucus UPDATE - looks like Romney

By MCM Posted in Comments (47) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

How big a political junkie are you? If you're nutty enough (like me) to be looking for results on the Wyoming caucus, I found a live blog from the Teton County Republican Convention & Caucus. http://www.planetjh.com/news/A_102782.aspx

Hopefully they'll also be able to get some info on what's happening in the other counties around the state.

1:03 Eastern - now voting for national delegate. Looks like it's between FRED! and Romney. Edge to Romney.

1:19 Eastern - They have to get 50% plus 1, but in the latest round the two Romney delegates had over 50% so unless there's some serious interpersonal issues there, looks like Romney gets the Teton County delegate. CBS says he also got Albany, so now the question may be whether Romney can sweep Wyoming and make a little news.

Is it very important and if so why the lack of coverage? When do we find out the results? Tonight? Thanks.

Not sure when results will be available, but it should end around 3 Mountain time.

Campaignspot.nationalreview.com

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

"What's up with Wyoming" is that it's the second caucus/primary of the election season.

It's important in the sense that delegates are at stake & if there is some big surprising result - like Thompson almost sweeping delegates, Huckabee or Paul doing well here, etc. - I'm sure it would make some news. If Thompson or Romney win (as seems to be expected) I'm sure they'll mention that fact at tonight's debate.

But Wyoming lost half their delegates when they moved it up.

All primaries/caucuses before Feb 5th lose half the delegates for their state. Except Iowa, because technically they only chose delegates to their state convention which then chooses the national delegates- but we already know the results.

could exploit the same loophole that Iowans are exploiting: just "choose delegates to the state convention" then have the actual decision made later.

Then Wyoming wouldn't have to give up half of its delegates.

I guess NH Republicans could do the same thing as well.

Does it matter that NH is having a primary and not a caucus?

Romney Republican

Fred, John, John, Mitt, Mitt, and HWMNBN nominees. Mr illegal war got a "burst of applause". Looks like pest control failed to spray for Rontards.

Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie

Yay?

I thought this was a straight up primary. As I understand now, these are "county conventions"? Is that anything like a caucus?

No one of good character leaves behind a wasted life - John McCain

Caucuses are pretty much mini conventions. It sounds like WY only has one per county instead of the dozens per county that you see in more populated states.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

Which means that each delegate goes to the national convention, while in Iowa I think the delegates actually go to a state convention first which then choose the delegates that go on to the nation convention.

Caucuses are fun- I've only been twice, (Out of state the other two times), but the rules are very confusing.

Last time I went I was the first (and only) one from my precinct to show up (apparently the precinct captain had moved two years before and nobody took his place), so the area captain fellow (don't remember the correct term) handed me a big binder full of caucus rules and forms and said "Congratulations, you're the provisional precinct captain! As soon as we start organize your precinct and decide who you want to represent your precinct as captain this year, then pick the delegates to the county convention. It tells you how many you can pick in the binder I gave you"

I spent the next two hours sitting at a table all by myself reading all the instructions and trying to fill the forms out right. It turned out that in addition to the precinct captain my precinct got to send three additional delegates, so I just put down my sister, my mother, and a neighbor- we actually were one of the best represented precincts at the county convention.

Then I got to write out the submissions my precinct was going to make to be put into the platform.

Then I went to the county convention, the professionals kept us under control must of the time due to the fact that they seemed to be the only people who actually knew the rules. They seemed to view it as more of a rally, and ratification of the establishment candidates. Of course on a few issues (the State Growth Management Plan- which was requiring land owners to keep 60% of their land in it's "natural state") the crowd was very indignant and demand to be allowed to have their views added to the platform, caucus rules be [darned]. And in one council members division, the non-establishment candidate won, (Only to be promptly defeated by the establishment candidate in the primary- the primary was tied up in lawsuits until two weeks after the convention and we weren't sure it would take place.)

I think the first time I attended a caucus was even more fun, as I was only 17 and not able to vote, but I talked to the other attendees and mentioned my anger about the poor job educating my sisters the school district was doing because of the school's refusal to teach phonics. The precinct decided to send delegates who would urge that issue being added to the platform- and it actually made it all the way to the state Republican platform that year. I was impressed.

would you agree that Iowa has way too much power in the current system?

It amazes me that we don't give this power to a state like Ohio or Florida. Iowa can only thank us for this privilege by giving us its 7 electors in the Fall. Ohio could thank us with 20 pivotal electors; electors that the Democrat nominee will need to have in the Fall.

Romney Republican

Yes, GOPaisano this is a caucus -- somewhat different rules from Iowa, but similar idea.

Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie

Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie

Romney 5 = 4 delagates & 1 alternate
Hunter 1 = 1 alternate

Can anyone tell me how the alternates work in WY?

--no sanctuary cities in WY
--oppose socialized medicine
--local authorities immediately contact feds when illegal aliens arrested or charged in Teton Co
--SS and health care reform (in light of #2 above, I construe this to be a "shoot the lawyers" variant of HC reform

Sounds like our kind of people. Great job by liveblogging reporter Grace Hammond too.

Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie

Romney 7 = 4 delagates & 3 alternates
Hunter 2 = 1 & 1
Thompson 2 = 1 & 1
McCain 1 = 1 alternate

http://www.wygop.org/images/wy/seven%20da%202008%20form.xls

Romney 8 = 5 delagates & 3 alternates
Hunter 2 = 1 & 1
Thompson 2 = 1 & 1
McCain 1 = 1 alternate

They got 28 but lose half as a penalty for going early, so that would be 14. I got no idea if the counts take that penalty into account or not. I would guess they also get the same number of alternates. At least that's the way it works in this state.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

12 are assigned today. 2 more delegates will be assigned on May 10th during their convention.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

Mitt Romney 7
Duncan Hunter 1
LINK

Now there's no more oak oppression,
For they passed a noble law,
And the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe, and saw.

So, for the moment, Romney takes the Delegate lead.

Iowa Mike Huckabee: 17, Mitt Romney: 12
Wyoming Mitt Romney 7. Mike Huckabee: 0

Totals Mitt Romney: 19, Mike Huckabee: 17

It just changed so that Romney lost 1, and Thompson picked up 1.

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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.

Right now they are all: "Romney must win"

Why? Because it makes good television.

After NH, assuming Romney gets 2nd to McCain, they will suddenly "discover" that Romney leads the delegate count and will then argue that he's not done by a long shot.

Why? Because it will make good television.

-------------
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.

Like Utah, Nevada, NH, Michigan, Mass. etc. Hey, wait, Mitt IS the only national candidate.

his various robotic parts were manufactured in labs all across the country, dontchaknow? Bob Novak is even saying there are rumors about possible Chinese circuitry originated in the Thompson camp!

this rumor has been proven false. It apparently originated with the NH push-polling. Michael Medved confirms this, as he claims to have seen irrefutable proof that Romney's parts were manufactured 100% by MIT grad students. Therefore, Romney is 100% American.

(Though it is possible, and still rumored, that the grad students obtained wires and circuit boards from India.)

Cicero wrote:

After NH, assuming Romney gets 2nd to McCain, they will suddenly "discover" that Romney leads the delegate count and will then argue that he's not done by a long shot.

On the night of the Iowa caucus, after feeling obligingly discouraged having listened to MSM spin that Romney HAD to win NH or else he was done, I came to the exact same conclusion as Cicero's.

Since 1st is predicted to be going to different candidates in each state, a strong 2nd place in each state puts Romney 1st overall -- it's simple math. After realizing this, I slept well that night. ;-)

Politic Minds | Tucker, Georgia

Cutting through the spin-

It suggests that Thompson and Romney are the two major candidates who had a chance out in the Inter Mountain West.

The eventual preference appears to be Romney. While Wyoming isn't going to effect Michigan or NH or SC, it is probably a good predictor of Idaho, Montana, and possibly Colorado, (do they have a primary or convention?)

The immediate fallout is that Thompson must win South Carolina, and must push back against Huckabee and make the South his base- although a win in SC would probably cause the Mountain West to take a second look at him.

Why? Because Thompson and Romney are the two "unity" candidates. Even if Romney takes a close 2nd in NH and Michigan he has the money to keep competing until Super Tuesday. Thompson needs something to say that it's worth continuing to back him instead of uniting around Romney as "good enough". If Thompson doesn't win SC then I think alot of us are going to decide that our choices are McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, or Romney... who out of those three is the average Republican going to vote for?

So... assuming McCain wins NH, and we go on to super Tuesday with 4 or 5 viable candidates, I think we have to give serious consideration to the possibility that no one will get a majority of the delegates.

If you want to know my position on the candidates, I'm leaning Romney right now, but I like both him and Thompson, and lately Thompson has been impressing me more and more. My vote by the way is going to which ever one of those two is in my opinion most viable by the time my state votes. If neither are still in the running I'll suck it up and vote for McCain I guess... if all three of those are somehow gone-

Well, I think I'll go play with my niece in the snow instead of voting.

Because Thompson has officially written off NH, I would vote for Romney. Don't want to have to choose between Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

Your logic makes no sense to me. Perhaps there are more supporters for Fred in NH than you think. His name is still on the ballot, right? Don't let polls tell you to avoid Fred. Let this Pole (me) tell you to vote for Fred.

-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --

Here's my reasoning. I want McCain to not come in first. I want Romney OR Thompson to remain viable. Thompson has written it off, so if he gets 4%, then no big deal. A Romney win keeps him strongly in the fight.

I know, if I really want Fred, I'd hope Romney to fall and drop out. But I fear Huckabee, Giuliani, and maybe McCain more than I like Fred.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

because you are believing the polls about the 4% for Thompson. He could get a lot more if the Fred fans all vote for Fred.


-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --

I have a question about the delegate count. I was just on cnn.com (now more reliable than the politico!) and saw the delegate counter, with Mitt ahead now, and Hillary way ahead. How can they claim to count delegates before a state has held their primaries? Anyway, this looks good for Romney and Thompson is getting some as well. How many delegates does NH award?

Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney

CNN has a nice delegate scorecard. I was looking at this yesterday and I can only guess that certain state parties award predetermined delegate status to party officials and such officials have already announced that they're backing a candidate.

eg party and elected officials.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

International Editor of

Select the Democrat Score card, and the then the Superdelegate tab:

Clinton has 154 super delegates
Obama has 50 pledged super delegates
Edwards 33
Richardson 19

Romney in first, Thompson a distant second, and then there's Duncan Hunter...

Why is it important? Sure Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee didn't bother to even show up once.

But that fact alone does not reflect well on them.

Congrats, Mitt. And you too, Fred.

"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke

 
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