Still Shopping: GOP Base Remains Dissatisfied With Field of Candidates
By Mediahawk Posted in Elections — Comments (23) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Five months to the GOP presidential primaries, social conservatives are still shopping for a candidate. The lack of a candidate of satisfactory conservative credentials and stature continues to be keenly felt in the party. This situation was reflected in a news report about the Iowa GOP presidential debate held Sunday morning.
As the Republican presidential candidates gather this morning in Des Moines for their fourth debate, Iowa GOP voters are expressing limited enthusiasm for the field of current and potential aspirants, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Their views appear to be a microcosm of GOP sentiment across the country and point to a wide open battle for the nomination.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has emerged as the early leader in the campaign for Iowa. But his support is both soft and shallow, suggesting that the Republican race in the state, as nationally, remains extremely fluid.Just 19 percent of likely GOP caucus attendees said they were "very satisfied" with the field of candidates -- far below satisfaction levels among Iowa Democrats -- and poll respondents were badly fractured when asked to rate the candidates on political and personal attributes.
The top four candidates --- Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mitt Romney --- are suspect in many regards to many conservatives. Giuliani despite his Republican Party affiliation and strong leadership credentials in national security matters is a dyed-in-the-wool social liberal. Social conservative he most certainly is not, and we can dare predict, may never be. Obviously trying to redeem himself before social conservatives, he has vowed that he will appoint "strict constructionist" judges in the mold of Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. But pray, if he did not as mayor of New York appoint lower-court equivalents of Scalia and Thomas, how in the world would he as a president do so? This is what Giuliani is reported to have told South Carolina Republicans in February.
"I would want judges who are strict constructionists because I am," he told South Carolina Republicans last month. "Those are the kinds of justices I would appoint -- Scalia, Alito and Roberts."
However an educative piece of investigative journalism done by the Politico clearly reveals that in terms of appointment of judges, Giuliani is an out and out pro-gay, pro-abortion liberal. For anyone who is not bent on denying the obvious, that politico story and a wealth of other evidence are enough to shatter the myth that as president Giuliani would appoint "strict constructionist" judges and be a defender of conservative values.
A Politico review of the 75 judges Giuliani appointed to three of New York state's lower courts found that Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 8 to 1. One of his appointments was an officer of the International Association of Lesbian and Gay Judges. Another ruled that the state law banning liquor sales on Sundays was unconstitutional because it was insufficiently secular.
A third, an abortion-rights supporter, later made it to the federal bench in part because New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer, a liberal Democrat, said he liked her ideology.Cumulatively, Giuilani's record was enough to win applause from people like Kelli Conlin, the head of NARAL Pro-Choice New York, the state's leading abortion-rights group.
For as every one who has served in that office must know, there's an almost unbearable pressure on a president when it comes to the matter of nominating judges and justices. Judges and particularly Supreme Court justices are the final arbiters of national culture and destiny. Every ideological bloc is aware of this and this is why ideological camps subject presidents to extreme levels of pressure, blackmail, threats and what have you whenever a Supreme Court vacancy opens up. In recent decades there's been only a few presidents who had conservative values and personal character strong enough to withstand that intense barrage of pressure and make a choice consistent with their conscience and values -- presidents such as Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Previous other presidents, including Bush's own father who touted themselves as social conservatives and who certainly were no cross-dressers and supporters of gay rights found it difficult enough to nominate nominally conservative justices - some of whom, incidentally, turned out to be false conservatives and true liberals. Bush's father who can lay claim to stronger conservative values than Giuliani nominated two justices (Clarence Thomas and David Souter). Thomas proved to be a true constructionist judge while Souter turned out to be a dud.
Even the man touted to be the archetypical social conservative President Ronald Reagan did not have a particularly brilliant record in terms of nominating true conservative justices. Reagan nominated three justices:Sandra Day O'Connor, Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy; William Rehnquist was nominated as associate justice by President Richard Nixon but he was confirmed as Chief Justice under Reagan. Of those three nominated as associate justices by Reagan only Antonin Scalia has proved himself to be a true strict constructionist. O'Connor and Souter were part of the 5-4 majority that defeated a challenge to overturn Roe vs. Wade in 1992. If a true social conservative like Reagan had all the trouble in the world to nominate justices who could prove to be true constructionists how much more ideologically and politically difficult would it be for a dyed-in-the wool liberal like Giuliani to nominate justices who would be true defenders of conservative social values? The point we are trying to make is that it takes a true conservative president true to his values to nominate true strict constructionist Supreme Court justices. Just as a lemon tree normally does not produce oranges so also do not openly liberal pro-choice presidents nominate true and strict constructionist judges. Believing otherwise is an exercise in self-delusion. That President George W. Bush was able to nominate two justices who hitherto have proved themselves to be true defenders of conservative national values is a testament to his true social conservatism. A less staunchly conservative Republican president would not have been able to do it. It takes true, deep-rooted conviction, moral soundness and courage to do it. Everything reproduces of itself, of its kind and of its quality. That's a law of life.
As for Romney, he touts himself and is touted by others as a strong social conservative. On the face of it, he seems to have many qualities that mark him out as a social conservative. Of all the top four candidates he's the only one to have married and stayed married to one woman. His children, generally, are said to be wholesome and well-behaved. He's a self-confessed pro-lifer. And he's also professedly against the legalization of homosexual marriage. But remember we said on the face of it. For when you dig deeper beneath that attractive, smooth and dazzling conservative image what you hit is a deep vein of obsfucation as to what he's really for and who he really is. In fact if you are the persistent kind and you keep digging deeper don't be surprised if you hit a rich lode of social liberalism trackrecord. He has flip-flopped so much on issues of deep concern to conservatives - notably, abortion - that one gets dizzy trying to keep up with his smoothly, frequently executed twists and turns.
As hard as that is to achieve, Romney makes John Kerry look clumsy and inexperienced in the game of twists, turns and backtracking. Very conveniently these changes of position often happen when he's gunning for a public position. We dare not call him feckless, shallow and calculating. But we can say he's amazingly good at reading the wind and going smoothly with the flow of it. Romney indeed seems to be a man who values traditional values such as family and marriage. The problem, however is that, one, those values may not be deep and strong enough and may have been constructed more to serve ambition than conscience. Second, he's an enormously ambitious and driven man, and his values and ambition are in perpetual warfare. This tension between his values and his ambition is one of the weakest links in his political character. For quite often in this inner war, naked ambition pulverizes values. And that is a most dangerous thing to have in a man who would be governing the affairs of millions and directing the destiny of an entire nation. For it's safer for a nation when the values and ambitions of a man who aspires to public office are allies rather than sworn enemies. If a man's values are not deep and strong enough, once he's in office don't expect values to be the driver of his policies. Ambition and cold, calculating pragmatism usually will be the driving forces. And it's just never good in the long term for a nation when mere naked ambition is the locomotive of a man's ride to power. Values, strongly and consistently and courageously held values is the best driver in this regard. A nation's interests are best served when its leader's ambitions are served, molded, influenced and driven by his values, not the other way round.
What about Fred Thompson? The darling-of-the-moment candidate is just as suspect in the eyes of true conservatives. As reported in an earlier write up the media have laid bare the falsity of his claims of being a consistent social conservative. If a man who lobbied on behalf of a pro-choice organization is a consistent social conservative, well then Thompson is indeed one. As for McCain, his long-running fire fights with conservatives on issues ranging from the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act to his bashing of Christian leaders like the late Jerry Falwell to his support for the aborted comprehensive immigration reforms, have worked to sap him of much of the reserve of good will and actual support he once had in the party. That he's arguably the most courageous and honest of the bunch, and potentially the best presidential material, do not seem to cut much ice with disenchanted social conservatives. The divorce indeed seems definitive. A big shame.
The two candidates that social conservative may truly call their own --- former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee and the senior Senator for Kansas, Sam Brownback --- have, for multiple reasons, failed to win the backing of the conservative base mainly because up to now they are yet to demonstrate their electability at the national level. Social conservatives want candidates who have proven policy and rhetorical track records on conservative issues --- as have Huckabee and Brownback. But they want them to have the image of toughness and electability as do the liberal candidate, Giuliani. Unhappily for conservatives these two men are yet to project that image of strength in depth. They certainly have the goods, true social conservative values. But for some inexplicable reasons they do not seem to know the first thing about how to sell them whereas Giuliani and Romney who don't have proven themselves skillful at marketiing that which they do not possess. But then isn't this politics, the game where you sell what you have not.
This has led to a situation where with only five months to the primaries, the GOP conservative base is yet to find a candidate that can inspire them and who they can support and cast their votes for without having to pinch hard their noses. So conservatives continue to shop. Problem being that pretty soon the shop will announce that it's time to close up and that shoppers must have to leave. And if the shoppers leave the shop with goods picked and paid for not out of true desire but just to leave with something then it becomes likely that after unwrapping the goods a case of shopper's remorse must follow. Social conservatives better browse hard and fast before the shop calls it a day and make sure they pick goods they will not regret buying.
Mbecker, I appreciate the contribution. It's your right to say what you want to say, the way you want to say it, as often as you want to say it --- and I accord that right to you. And it's also mine to say what I want to say, the way I want to say it, and as often as I want to say it.
Used to be a place called the Soviet Union where they told you exactly what to say, and where they had gag police to enforce it. I thought that place is defunct. Apparently I am not keeping up with developments.
Best regards.
Mbecker, I appreciate the debate --- and the acquaintance. Hope we can continue to have a good discussion.
Actually, I lean toward McCain. I disagree with some of his positions. But I think his life story and the courage of his convictions are good traits to have in leaders. He may not always be right in the positions he takes, but at least he has principles and I find that admirable.
Best regards.
Might I know who you're backing? Just curious.
You've been a member here for 3 days and you dare to post this crap?
You must be flyerhawk's alter-ego.
You should be banned immediately.
This is tripe.
FYI, when all the dust settles from the primary, the GOP will unify around its nominee. Hillary and Obama should start planning for that. They won't get a cake-walk to the White House.
Romney/Thompson 2008
Great point, California Conservative. I appreciate your contribution and making your acquaintance. I look forward to having some good discussions with you...
Would be glad though if you could spell out for me what the rules are ... I certainly want to abide by the house rules.
Best regards.
If not, we'll invite him to a State Dinner with The Prince.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
As of now, nobody.
I am currently leaning toward Rudy or Fred. I could support Mitt if he makes through the primaries. I would not vote for McCain under any circumstances, primary or general. Huckabee, Brownback, etal won't survive IA & NH - Huck should run for Senate where he could make a real contribution. RonPaul™ is simply a bad joke.
My biggest issue is the war, both abroad and at home. I think R/F will do the best job of confronting the Dems and the media at home - the military can take care of the overseas part.
I'll put up a blog on the subject when things start to heat up and all the candidates are in, but until Fred and Newt both declare one way or the other, things won't really start to form up.
Of course, the wild card for me is Franz Prince of Dogness. We are doing some legal warfare related to "dog years" and when we win that skirmish, Franz will formally declare and then I'm with him.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I'm about in the same place by mbecker908.
Slightly nervious about Rudy.. but I'll support him all the way if I have too. He's got baggage and I'm not going to agree with him on some issues, but his charisma and determination will get him thru. This country needs another hard nosed 'great communicator' and you can have the greatest message in the world... but it doesn't matter much if that message isn't heard (i.e. Bush II). I don't trust him 100% with judges.. but I'll like his judges a lot better than Hillary's! Besides, if we don't get a majority in the Senate there will only be so many judges we will be able to get thru anyway... stealth nominee's or not.
Even more nervious about Romney... the most damning thing I could say is that he is a 'Republican Bill Clinton'. Charismatic, poll and opinion driven and very smooth. That would be the most damning nickname to slam on him... but he can probably beat it... since he keeps his Slick Willie in his pants.
Brownback? Not. Paul... calling him a bad joke is charitable. At least you were trying to be funny!
I hear good things about Huckabee & Hunter as well, but for some reason neither seem to be annointed the chance to win.
Fred better get in the race by Sept. 4-5th or he can kiss his shot goodbye. I'd say by mid August, but doing that in the news doldrums could be a bad idea (or it could be a brilliant idea).
"Took the nickname Troll long before BlogTrolls existed..."
Yeah, troll, It seems a wide open race among Giuliani, Romney and Thompson. It could be anyone of them...Romney's slick, very slick and that worries a lot of people... It seems easier to predict what Giuliani might be as president. But Romney's a hard act to read.
That makes people nervous about him.
Thompson needs to move into the fight fast and create a more professional team if he's to have a chance.
But after all said and done, if the Iraq situation doesn't improve signficantly before Nov '08, the GOP can kiss the White House good bye regardless of whether Giuliani or Romney or Thompson is the candidate...
If there's an improvement in the Iraq situation any of these trio can beat the Dem candidate... The wind behind the Dems has been Iraq ... Without it they would deflate...
How do you see it panning out? I've heard talk that Rudy might implode if people get to know more about him. Romney might just survive the scrutiny. Fred's fate is still largely a mystery. Can't really say much about his possibilities until he actually gets officially into the race and is subjected to real heat. He seems to be losing a lot of forward wind by staying in the sidelines too long.
I have no clue. I can construct a winning or losing scenario for R/F/M. I don't think polls mean diddly squat yet - most people are still focusing on their lives, not politics. The media isn't even really focusing on the race too much, heck how can you have a substantive "debate" when there are as many people on the podium answering questions as there are sitting in the audience listening to the answers. "Mr Candidate, how would you solve the problems in the Middle East? - you have 45 seconds to answer..."
I'm a political junkie. I haven't watched one of the debates. And I don't intend to until Fred/Newt figure out what they're doing and Tier 47 goes back to their day jobs.
Some things in the real world that have to happen before I make up my mind (other than F/N...):
1. Petraeus' testimony and the fall out from that. What will the D's try to do and how will the Administration react.
2. What will the D's do with respect to the new budget cycle. Since all of their front runners are currently sitting members (funny aside, I'm not caffeinated yet and the first time I tried to type "sitting" it came out "sinning"...) of Congress. Will they provide us YouTubeJoy™?
3. What will the media fall out be from the new FISA law just passed by the Democratic Congress?
4. What's going to happen in Afghanistan/Pakistan over the next 2-3 months? Activity there could be crucial to the '08 election.
5. Gas prices? The housing industry? The economy?
6. Terrorist activities on the home front (other than Murtha's speeches).
Bottom line, everybody's fate is up in the air right now. It's just silly to start chipping names in granite yet. Four years ago, Howard Dean was the front runner, John Kerry was just an underperforming Senator with a solid record of supporting Communism and anti-American activities. Who coulda guessed. I think the first thing that has to happen is that the single digit wonders need to quit the race and we can start to see where things will shake out. I'll watch a debate with three people on the stage. Things aren't really going to start to shake out until late fall.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Of all the people this Blogger listed.. Fred seems to be the only logical choice. The abortion lobbyist Accusation has been beaten to death on a thousand blogs. I sure it is the same here after reading a few. I know I am new here ( just 7 hours old :) ) but at the ame time there are truely bad things to be said about all the GOP hopefuls listed here. I am curious on what is the problem with Fred? If the above mentioned accusation is all people can come up with.. I know who I am voting for.
"If you not a liberal when your young you have no heart.. If your not conservative when you grow up you have no brains"
-unknown
Delvin the Black, if Fred really wants to make it as the GOP choice, then he has to officially make his intentions known - fast. He has to begin talking in depth about his policy positions and not just keep dishing out folksy sound bites.
The window of opportunity is still open for him ... but it's closing. He has to jump into the race and stop playing coy.
If he has a case to make he can't do it effectively sitting on the sidelines. His campaign fundraising fell short of expectations, perhaps because of the uncertainty surrounding whether he will jump in and when, and right now he needs all the money he can get to stay in the race for the long haul.
Personally I'm more inclined to vote a guy who shows up later than average, than a guy who started running in 2000 (McCain) or 2006 (Giuliani).
Noone minded that noone announced running for POTUS until Sept. of 2004....2000...1996....1992... Why should everyone jump in so early? Seem to me this is a set up by the MSM to get rating and stir things up early... Just my opinion.
"If you not a liberal when your young you have no heart.. If your not conservative when you grow up you have no brains"
-unknown
I assume you mean candidates announced September of the year before. If so, you are wrong. Bush announced straight after being re-elected as Governor of Texas in 1998. He was not the first in the field as McCain, Alexander, Dole and Forbes were all campaigning at the time.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
And get a spell checker. Both IE7 and Firefox have good ones. Thanks.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Perhaps you've got a point there ...about the MSM wanting things to start early to stir up interest and beef up ratings. Still, Fred needs to jump in soon so as not to allow his momentum to slow... The wind is behind his back right now, but it could shift..


Why don't you attempt a positive blog for a candidate you like. We've heard all this regurgitated crap about a thousand times and it's nothing but mental masturbation on your part. You have yet to post anything that's not whining "oh woe is us" trash.
If you're planning on staying home if Rudy/Fred/Mitt gets the nomination, just say so, leave and don't come back. Otherwise, please make an attempt to contribute something. This crap ain't it.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.