The Coming Tet?

By Moe Lane Posted in Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Ace of AoSHQ is worried that we will see another AQ offensive ostensibly aimed at our military, but really aimed at our media culture. As he notes, it's not like they have anything left to lose by trying:

So there will be a Tet. And the media will be filled with stories about it, deeming the new offensive a true "trend" which hardly needs confirmation by repetition and duration, and a complete vindication of Harry Reid's "The war is lost" unilateral declaration of surrender. All of this is as inevitable and predictable as the chiming of Big Ben.

It's the only play that makes sense for them. If they've delayed it this long, it's only because they're having trouble arranging a big coordinated series of bombings with the US military and even Iraqi forces harrying them at every turn, and probably because they want the attack to have maximum impact -- and maximum impact requires maximum disappointment. It requires the US public finally beginning to think that maybe this war can be won, or perhaps even is won -- and for once, perhaps, the MSM is inadvertently thwarting Al Qaeda's propaganda goals by not reporting on the recent turn towards victory in Iraq, thus denying the jihadis the circumstances of hope and optimism which is necessary for their Tet to work.

He's worried about triumphalism on the Right - which is fair; it's something that we need to watch out for - and is also concerned about Iraqi political progress, which is also fair (the sample article he used is from the LA Times, which is free, but you need a password). The whole process is not unlike fixing a car engine while it's running, except that it actually can be done. Just not easily.

Bottom line: this is going to be the tense time. The operational insurgency groups are largely reduced back to Stage 1 operations (whether they were at Stage 2 or 3 prior to the change in our tactics is something that I'll let the real military experts here decide); their future recovery (or marginalization) will depend largely on how inevitable they look. So when they try, they are going to be as loud and as destructive as they can be, and they will try. We need to be prepared for both halves of that.

It only worked because there was no opposition to the MSM. When Uncle Walter claimed that Tet was a victory for the Vietnamese communists, the MSM backed him.

But now there is the internet and bloggers. The MSM dares not get too far out on the limb for fear that the bloggers will "Ratherize" them.

And just how hard and how loud can the MSM stick their fingers in their ears and shout "I DONT HEAR YOU" ? They still buy the ink by the barrel and the electrons by the coulomb.

Right now we have conservative republicans willing to go third party and toss the election to Hillary to prevent the greater horror of Rudy. Do you really think our apolitical non biased friends in the MSM wouldn't just decide to close ranks and misreport the facts if they felt it might get their gal elected ?
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Not so fast. The MSM's first reaction to Dan Rather's typewriter problem was to ignore it. The New York Times even provided air cover for a complete stonewall on the CBS News "allegations." Hard as they tried, the MSM could not spike the fact that the docs were forgeries. The first mention of the "proportional font" issue was posted by an attorney in Atlanta on Free Republic. Power Line picked it up, and away went Mr. Rather.

The MSM's reaction to the press conference held at the National Press Club by a group of veterans who had served with John Kerry on Swift Boats in Vietnam was to ignore them. The assembled "journalists" neither printed nor aired a single word, despite being handed documentation backing everything said. How well did that work out?

I'm not saying these guys don't swing a pretty big bat, but except for 2006 they haven't really pushed an election to the Dems since 1992.

Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.

In the case of Dan Rather you have a "Beloved Figure" who was beloved in the same way Simon Legree or a Dickensian Industrialist is beloved. Feared until the opportunity to take them down comes around. The Times had its own reasons for providing cover. They were complicit in the fraud.

Rather & Co's downfall was also aided by their near complete cluelessness about the technology powering their profession. The visual of overlaying a document made by word and a document supposedly made by a typewriter is compelling. To this day I am certain Rather thinks proportional spacing and justification just happen.

The swift boat vets had a similar ability to use jiu jitsu against the media. A compelling story, Well Told by war heroes and tapping into the festering resentment of vets overwhelmed the MSM. I really don't look at the swift boat vets as a win for the blogosphere.

Now give the MSM pictures of the bloody ichor of children spread thin across the walls of Baghdad and the ghouls will have their fill.

I will plead that a failure of my own imagination leads me to worry about this perhaps more than I should. The only way I can conceive of countering this is for the insurgency to be shut down rapidly. It would have to be less than a week and in a manner that gives dramatic victories with even more powerful imagery.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

dwarfs the blogosphere, which in turn acts like a conservative R&D department, none of which existed 40 years ago.

I don't know what percentage of people get their news from blogs or other alternative media. But I really think it's beside the point.

Blogs, talk radio, and the rest of the sphere of alternative media (including Drudge) have an immense, and growing, amount of influence. And the evidence for this is everywhere you look: the thrice-failed effort to codify amnesty, the doomed Harriet Miers nomination, the fall of Dan Rather, even the Clinton impeachment.

But let me say that I'm a bit skeptical of Ace's worry here. His fear comes from the assumption that AQ is regrouping and waiting to pounce with something spectacular. I think that would require some amount of sanctuary...and that's something they just don't really have over there anymore.

Immense ? Not so much I think.

Heres a simple test ask someone from your prior generation about any of redstates redhots, front page stories, or recommended blogs.

9 times out of ten you will get a blank stare.

Then ask them about a story or two that was on the NBC evening news. Thats immense influence.

We may very well be able to overcome the MSM, but its not done yet.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

....I'm sure it's possible and no doubt AQI would love to pull one off. I also have no doubt that David Petraeus has already considered that scenario and is/has already been planning for it. I have a renewed sense of confidence and optimism knowing that man is over there.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

by Christopher Hitchens It is an excellent read.

Yes, AQI has nothing to lose however I don't think they have what it takes to mount anything at this point. I think that if they could mount a Tet type offensive they would have. AQI is practically defeated. The major enemy left in Iraq appears to me at least to be Iran and their proxies. Again, I have never been there and all my knowledge is second hand. That said, I have read Jeff's work, Michael Yon, Ralph Peters, and many others and AQI's defeat seems to be one of many themes.

Your cautious optimism is appropriate however frankly, it is nothing short of remarkable what has been accomplished so far, and the people that helped make it happen have my confidence. Whatever difficulties lie ahead, I have full faith and confidence in those that are navigating it.

Always tell the truth, George; it's the easiest thing to remember.

Proprietor Nation

Tet requires the ability to make coordinated infantry attacks and make them stick.
The NVA and the VC could do that; I don't believe the AQI can do that.
The Army has been careful not to make triumphalist statements and set themselves up, so that they might not be cut off at the knees.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

Tet requires the ability to make coordinated infantry attacks and make them stick.

For "Tet" purposes, all that's required is whatever makes a big splash for television cameras. The blood of hundreds of innocent Iraqis splattered all over the streets would do just fine for the common interests of al Qaeda and the American media.

The NVA and the VC could do that

Really? Someone better versed than me on Vietnam war history may want to comment, but my understanding is that the Tet offensive was kind of like the Battle of the Bulge militarily - within a few months the NVA was rolled back to where it was or worse, while the VC was permanently eliminated as a militarily significant fighting force. It was only as a media political stunt that the Tet offensive succeeded spectaularly.

for the VC. But through 1984 tactics, our MSM and culture made defeat = victory, and victory = defeat.

Molon Labe!

was a propaganda victory that cost the Communists dearly, as we all know. While the Viet Cong were decimated, this was by design, in my opinion. The North Vietnamese saw this as an opportunity to eliminate future political opposition. NVA soldiers filled the ranks of the decimated Viet Cong and the next year and a half was the bloodiest in the war for American units.

While the VC did pay a heavy price for Tet, their ability to take over large cities like Hue and Saigon and hold them for a period of time stunned the American public.

The stars were aligned perfectly for the Communists during Tet for two reasons. First, much of ARVN was on leave in observance of the Tet New Year. Second, American infantry units, in deference to the South Vietnamese, were not present in Saigon. However, American military police units saved the day in Saigon.

I wouldn't go so far as to term Tet a "Battle of the Bulge" because the Germans were operating out of desperation as they were running out of time. Time was on the side of the Communists in Vietnam because they believed they could win the war of attrition that would follow.

The VC thought widespread (every major city in SVN) attacks during Tet would create a general uprising in support of the Communists against the US. This did not happen. It will not happen in Iraq either. Murdering car bombers of innocent civilians do not inspire support.

The US media was able to make the case for defeat during Tet because the American public was mislead, since the earliest days of our presence in Vietnam, that victory was attainable in a short period of time.

The Vietnam War taught us exactly what not to do while conducting a war. Thankfully, our present leaders from the Commander-In-Chief down through the ranks have applied these lessons learned.

The presence of an improved Iraq armed forces is crucial to victory, and I believe we are gradually seeing this come to fruition.

Recent reports say that AQ in Iraq has been severly degraded and so they probably couldn't mount any dramatic counter attack against US forces or our allies there. However, in coordination with the Taliban, they might be able to mount an attack in Afghanistan. An attack on our NATO allies might cause them to cut and run and leave us holding the bag in Afghanistan. Either way, I pray it doesn't happen.

Hmm. Strangely, we've been here before. As someone :-) noted here, there was supposed to be a big Iranian "counter-surge" in August purposefully just ahead of the September Petraeus report. Nothing happened:

One has to wonder if this is the proverbial "dog that didn't bark" - that our guys have done such a good job that the "counter-surge" never got out of the porta-potty.

I'm sure they were itching then as now to do something - but they just couldn't then and perhaps the same thing is true now.

And don't forget that all last winter was were regaled with stories of the "upcoming Taliban spring offensive" that was also a no-show.

(p.s. Like Mark Steyn, I'm still waiting for the "brutal Afghan winter"....)

I, too, thought pre-Petraeus was the critical time and worried about more attacks like the 200+ dead Kurds. Didn't happen! Probably couldn't happen. It's not over, but I'm beginning to see (Don't you hate it?) "light at the end of the tunnel."

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Molon Labe!

I suspect that we have lost ZERO company size engagements in GWOT, but I do not know this.

If it is true that we have never lost a company-size engagement in GWOT that is something significant that should be well-publicized.

I think we lost a few company-size engagements in Viet Nam but I do not know this for sure either.

I know that we lost division-size engagements in Korea and WW 2.

in the GWOT. I can't think of one we lost in Vietnam. Of course like so many arguments, terms are usually the key. Sorry if that sounds Clintonian but that is just the way it is. I know we have never been overrun in a defensive position. I would not doubt that a company retreated/redeployed for a certain amount of time under fire. The key thing is, there is no piece of land we can not take and hold if we want to do it. The problem is this war is often not about taking and holding land. We have cleared many terrorist areas only to have them escape and go somewhere else.

Molon Labe!

there were engagments where we took tough losses, gave much worse, but in the end left the AO. We know about LZ xray in the Ia Drang Valley, and we know about Khe Sanh. We obviously lost something in Vietnam because we left. But if you look at actual battle statistics, we always could have held a place if it was paramount to do so. We have lost before because we simply left, or changed our battleplan.

Molon Labe!

Its just irrelevant.

If there is a Tet in Iraq win or lose will be meaningless in the context of unit performance (up to the army level). What will matter is if the terrorists are able to generate horrific events. Think homicide bomber with tens of pounds of C4 in a maternity ward. The maternity ward is not a military target. The casualties would not have been participants. The image of the walls and weeping survivors is the target.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Umm, Moe. I don't think you should post again until you submit a 2000 word essay on the difference between the Viet Cong/PAVN in 1968 and the AQ/Shiite/Sunni in 2007.

Hint: nah, forget it.

Particularly since I don't even remember why I banned you the last go-round.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

 
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