Newsweek: Huck 39%, Mitt 17% in IA.
By Mr. Ed Posted in 2008 — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Newsweek has released its latest Iowa poll Friday afternoon.
540 likely Republican caucus voters. Surveyed Dec. 5-6. MOE: +/- 3%
Huck 39%
Mitt 17%
Fred 10%
Rudy 9%
John 6%
Brief analysis: "The Speech" occurred on the second day of polling so no impact on this survey. Only 10 percent of survey respondents indicated a desire to hear more about Mitt's religion.
It will be interesting to see how much impact the Club for Growth's national ad (hit) campaign against Huck will have.
The clear expectation now is that Huck will win Iowa. If Mitt comes close or wins, it could be a huge bubble burster for Huck.
Mitt's spent 7 million to Huck's $327K.
The reason you need to breath into the brown paper bag?
Mitt's got $100 Million plus to play with and Huck's got what? A brown paper bag ;)
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
With only 275 likely Republican caucus goers polled. 275 doesn't really qualify as much of a poll, IMO.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Polling for the Iowa caususes is historically inaccurate, and given the current context, next to useless.
I am a Fred supporter, and my point was simply that Huck and Mitt do NOT have a lock on the top two spots in Iowa.
And this one is outside the margin of all other Iowa polls. I call bunk until some other polling backs it up.
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
Turn Huckabee and Romney around in your last sentence and it's what people were saying about a month ago. All this does is reaffirm to me that the only poll that counts is on primary/caucus day.
“Quack remedies of the universal cure-all type are generally as noxious to the body politic as to the body corporal.” Theodore Roosevelt
How is it that nobody has figured out yet that polls in Iowa are almost completely worthless? Especially when they show 20+% swings in one week?
Anyhow, here is the thing: NOBODY KNOWS who is going to win Iowa. We really have no good way of predicting. Ask Howard Dean. Or Ronald Reagan '80 for that matter.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
...now Huck has a 22 pt. lead? I'm calling BS unless it is confirmed by more polling.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...I sense something's not right with the poll, namely, the source of it. I'm getting the impression that they're trying to establish the narrative as that Huckabee is an unstoppable force in Iowa, and anything less than that happening they'll paint as the final nail in his coffin.
It just doesn't pass the smell test.
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
It would be interesting to look at the polling data from the Republican presidential race in 1996 and 2000 and see how that matched up against the actual result. Obviously, polling for primaries has more inaccuracy built into it than in a general election due to difficulty in predicting who turns out and who stays home.
This poll seems inaccurate. But we'll have to stay tuned and see what the other polls say. My bet is that Huckabee wins with 28 percent and Romney follows with 24 percent.
Given that people already expect Huckabee to win Iowa now, Huckabee might not get as much of a bounce out of New Hampshire as he would have otherwise.
I'm predicting a Huckabee victory in Iowa and a Romney victory in New Hampshire.
I'm not convinced that anyone, even as a Fred Thompson supporter, has such a substantial lead. I'm calling out all Huckabee supporters that use Red.State. Do you honestly believe that this phony has doubled up on a moderate conservative in Mitt Romney and a real conservative in Fred Thompson. Let's look through the looking glass Huck supporters, your candidate absolutely deserves the nomination, the nomination of the Democratic party founded by JFK, not the party founded by RR. I've posted many times that I will vote for any Republican, even if not Fred, but Huckabee (and not Ron Paul) is making me rethink that claim. Why?... At least that traitor Ron Paul believes the crap he is saying.
BTW- Huck fans, where were you a month ago when your candidate was at like 4%... you were supporting the others you fakes.
The Directors are right; those of my political mindset are, on economic issues, way to the right of the mainstream. Neither political party is seeming to be willing to take the mantle of economic conservatism, and a Huckabee nomination would, on the role of government in the economy, take away any real difference from the Democrats on the matter.
Granted, you all know where I'm coming from with this, and that, from my particular political persuasion, see no substantiative difference between Huck and Hill. (Don't mention social issues; while their positions are different, their means are the same.) If Gov. Huckabee wins the GOP nomination, I'll either vote Libertarian, leave the top of my ballot blank, or even vote for He Who Must Not Be Named should he decide to go the third-party route come 2008... I'm willing to accept some sort of a compromise candidate (i.e. Romney, McCain), but I don't see how conceding an entire class of issues to the Democrats (or, for that matter, the cult of Pat Buchanan) will help us out in the long term.
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
BTW- Huck fans, where were you a month ago when your candidate was at like 4%... you were supporting the others you fakes.
I was right here supporting Mike Huckabee. I was supporting him before the Iowa Straw Poll, when he was 1% nationally and 3% in Iowa.
I was there. Don't you dare call me a fake.
Conservatives are finally realizing that only Huck is solid on social conservative issues. I would have never imagined that this dramatic turn of events would have happened so suddenly, although I have repeatedly said that Huck would win Iowa, place high in NH, and win South Carolina.
Exhilarating, yes.
Frustrating also. The roller-coaster ride, sometimes hour by hour, due to positive polling coupled with increasing attacks.
It's gonna get worse over the next two weeks. Though, for his opponents it's a two edged sword.
With everyone controversy, Huck gets more airtime. He does so well when people see him that I think each new attack is, at worst, a net break even for him. It also sucks the air out of media exposure for other candidates.
I think Fred sees an opportunity in Iowa to go after Mitt and try to come in a surprise second. If this happens, Fred could be the story coming out of IA rather than Huck.
It's going to be interesting!
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
The previous poll was done in Sept. The one interesting item, Only Huckabee and Ron Paul have gained since the last poll was taken. Mitt, Rudy, McCain, and Fred all lost ground. I think that is a good breakdown of the candidates. Makes sense, the two candidates who would get destroyed in a general election, Ron Paul and Huckabee, are the only two gaining ground.
The little head to head polling done on Huck vs. Hillary shows Huck faring very well. Some polls show him with the widest margin over Hillary than any GOP candidate.
He also holds up well vs. Obama.
Don't underestimate the candidate who is almost universally acclaimed as the best retail campaigner in either party right now.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
Your blind devotion to head-to-head polling right now is interesting. Don't you have eyes? Don't you know exactly how he'd be attacked in the general?
Actually, we're both blind. Conjecture about how well any of the candidates from either party will do in the general election at this point is, well,...pure conjecture.
I respect your opinion in that there will be cannonfodder for Huck's opponent in the general...as there will for any candidate.
Huck has continually proven the naysayers wrong to this point. His momentum could well change.
Huck has stated numerous times we shouldn't underestimate Hillary in the general election.
IMO, we shouldn't underestimate Huck's potential broad appeal either.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
one word. wow! Mitt has spent over 60 million and Mike has spent less than million. wow!