Analysis: The First Five Primaries
By Mr. Ed Posted in 2007 — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
This morning I saw an NBC political pundit (can't remember his name) give Mitt the current edge in the race due to his "being in the top three in each of the first five contests).
I went to RCP and confirmed this observation. I also did some quick calculations on the relative standing and average polling percentages of each of the candidates in the first five contests (IA/NH/MI/SC/FL). Here is what I found:
Candidate (Avg. Standing) (Avg. Polling %)
Mitt Romney (1.8) (23.0)%
Mike Huckabee (2.0) (21.6)
John McCain (3.2) (14.2)
Rudy Guiliani (3.6) (15.0)
Fred Thompson (4.6) (8.6)
This suggests Mitt/Mike are in the top tier, with John and Rudy in the second. Fred is third tier. Fred is only in the top three in SC, where he is currently polling third (and really in a statistical tie for third with John and Rudy).
Given Rudy is unlikely to win any of the first four contests, you really have to think he will have trouble in Florida. If he doesn't win Florida, Super Tuesday will not be kind to him.
McCain must win or come VERY close to Mitt in NH or he will likely fall fast.
Huck must place 1st or 2nd in Iowa AND win South Carolina.
Mitt has the most flexibility, though he really must win NH or SC.
Fred must come in third in Iowa, and likely will need to come very close to second. If not, SC is his last hope, where he's currently polling third and not likely to climb unless he does well in Iowa.
I realize I'm stating the obvious here, but, if nothing else, this helps jell my own thoughts on the current scenarios.
I don't think an update about where the process is once in a while hurts anybody. I mean people can, you know, move on to the next post and choose to not read it.
Thank you for the recommendations. Happy Holidays!
"I believe in grace, because I have seen it. In peace, because I have felt it. In forgiveness, because I needed it."
-George W. Bush
People seem to forget that Giuliani fought tooth and nail to turn around NYC with a primarily-Democrat city, and won. The assumption seems to be when Giuliani loses Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina, and it comes down to do or die in Florida, he's just going to roll over and let (probably) Romney win it and roll to Super Tuesday.
While Romney, Huckabee and McCain slug it out in the pre-Florida states, I GUARANTEE Rudy will be hitting Florida, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania hard.
The media will be distracted by "Huckabees fall," "Romney's momentum" and "McCain's concession," that when we get to Florida and Super Tuesday, they will hit the wall Rudy slowly and quietly has been building.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
All they need is one state to remain credible going into Feb 5th. If they don't win anything leading up to 2/5, it will probably hurt them, even if they got a 2nd and 3rd place finish here and there. After 2/5 it will be mostly over. I expect to lose some candidates in the aftermath but still have a 2 or 3 way race.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Not saying you are wrong, but I wonder if Giuliani only wins Florida, will that be enough?
"I believe in grace, because I have seen it. In peace, because I have felt it. In forgiveness, because I needed it."
-George W. Bush
Not enough to win it, of course, but enough to stay credible for super Tuesday. A win will keep his supporters going. There are only 6 states ahead of super tuesday, so I don't expect anybody to walk away with more than 2 wins, 3 at the most.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Well, maybe I exaggerate.
A little.
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