The Joy of Tracking Polls 7
By Neil Stevens Posted in 2008 | Elections | Fred Thompson | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | Mitt Romney | polls | rasmussen | Rudy Giuliani — Comments (32) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I'd basically stopped doing my weekly view of the Rasmussen tracking poll both because my health has been spotty lately, and because the poll had just gotten boring. After all, during the Thanksgiving break in the poll, we had a three way tie for second, Giuliani sitting on his average, and McCain slightly behind the other three.
Today though, I am compelled to post.
Anyone would be. Look at this:
Huckabee surges while Giuliani collapses. For the first time during this race, no Republican is above 20% in this poll. Giuliani and Hucakbee tie at 18%, McCain follows at 14%, Thompson checks in at 13%, and Romney is in fifth at 12%. Of course, the exact ordering, and the tie(!) are of more psychological than actual importance, given how close these candidates are and the nature of statistical polling, but no matter what this is the biggest shakeup in the poll since Fred Thompson formally entered the race.
Time will tell if this is temporary, caused by a bad sample one day (as this poll is a moving average of daily measurements), but that's some large movement for an outlier, so I doubt that can entirely explain this change.
Update: let me elaborate on just how critical this is that everyone is in this little range. For first to fifth as a ranking to mean anything, that is, for us to know that Giuliani and Huckabee are actually above Romney, the margin of error would have to be under three percent. National polls never have a margin of error that low. So essentially this poll is now a five way tie. That is just shocking to me.
Update 2: Adam C points out that the MoE is actually 4%. So there we have it. We're all tied with about a month to go before the first delegates are allocated.
We'll see after Super Tuesday, when candidates have to give up on having massive organizations to canvass the whole state in question.
This survey includes approximately 750-800 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
So Rudy and Huck are 14-22.
McCain is 10-18
Fred is 9-17
Romney 8-16
It could be tied and it could be a blowout. These margins are tiny and subject to change each daily poll. Craziness.
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Why in the name of George Gallup would they survey "Likely Democratic Primary Voters to determine the Republican nominee?!
They ask the Democrats about Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, and they ask the Republicans about Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, Romney, and McCain.
I don't think there will be much more movement in the national polls over the next month. Rudy may slip a bit. Huck may gain another point or two or may go down a point or two if he gets bashed too much.
But I think what you're seeing -- five candidates between 10-20% is where we'll be at caucus time.
I don't think they will move much until someone drops out. It may make finishing in the top three in IA and/or NH even more critical.
The question is, "who drops out first and where will those supporters go?"
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
You are 100% correct. What this says is Rudy's plan may not be working. Can Rudy survive if he loses the first 3 or 4 contests.
What happens to a candidate before Jan 29th who hasn't won anything? And will a candidate drop out and endorse someone else?
Hold onto your seat, its going to be a bumpy ride.
Can Rudy survive if he loses the first 3 or 4 contests.
If Rudy were to drop out it it would free the sizable anybody-but-Rudy crowd from having to vote defensively for the anti-Rudy candidate they think can beat him... instead they could vote for the candidate they actually want. I think having someone like Rudy (and now Huck) in there distorts the field quite a bit.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
...rests precariously on the mountain's peak
This primary season, we all wait to see which side of the mountain it will fall to, build mass, gain speed and smash the liberal chalet at the bottom in November.
Everyone might as well stay in until Super Tuesday--who knows what BCS-style crazy finish will result?
I love it!
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
The ethics elephant in the room came home to roost (to really mangle metaphors) last week JUST as we had the most watched debate where Guiliani didn't fare very well.
Not a good combo for your poll numbers.
Remember it was Rudy vs Mitt in the big dogfight and now both have dropped a ton with most of that going to Huckabee.
Oz
Read my most recent story, "What is Thompson's path?" on First Cut Politics
Romney's numbers have always been pretty aenemic nationally (+/- half-MOE around 13% or so), but actually ticked-up a bit this latest survey (probably nothing, noise), after Rudy chopped at him with the "Sanctuary Mansion" crack. Probably nothing for Mitt's numbers, but I wonder if that contributed to Rudy's cratering.
Still, you're talking a difference from Rudy and Huck to Mitt of about 7-points total - so (to Adam's point, above), we basically have a 4+ way jump ball nationally, to say nothing of almost all of the states getting tighter.
Anything. Can. Happen.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Rudy vs Mitt came out with folks either saying they both looked childish or Romney defended himself from Rudy's attack.
Romney went down 3% points and then recovered 2% points for a net loss of 1% point. I don't see much Romney support going to Huck. I think Huck is getting some of those undecideds along with Rudy supporters (go figure). Maybe it's Rudy folks wanting Huck to beat Romney? Rudy went down 3% points and then he went down 6% points.
Of note is that even with all this play, there are still 25% of undecideds in this poll. Real news? Undecideds are winning by 7% ;-)
At this point, and having to stomach the Hucksters' comments that are just crazy...
I'd like to vote for Undecided. At least he's more honest and his supporters aren't so crazy as the Hucksters are.
I'm serious... if there was a race for crazy fanatical supporters; the Hucksters have overtaken the Ronulans for sheer madness.
I just hope the man they support isn't as crazy.
Because we pick fundraising days in honor of Guy Fawkes, spam polls and distribute our own money.
C'mon.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
No it's because you cannot accept legitimate criticism of Huckabee. And I put that politely.
With all due respect, most of the Hucksters act as if Huckabee is a Messiah who can do no wrong no matter what he does.
It's a joke. They talk about love and respect and then immediately attack ANY candidate that has a better position than Huckabee does.
That's received quite a bit of MSM attention and it sure sounds bad, even if there is nothing there. It manages to combine possible mismanagement of funds with the whole mistress thing. It is just not a good story for Rudy.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
But is this just undecideds going to Huck and Rudy's supporters becoming undecideds? Are there any Rudy folks going over to Huck and if so, why? That would be quite the political leap in my opinion, or maybe it's just uninformed Joe American playing off the MSM reporting.
Huckabee sounds good. Really good. Sometimes people hear the tone of the message first, hence the surge at the HUGE amount of coverage he's gotten, I'm looking at the top 10 blogs on here and 7 of them are about Huckabee.
In addition Guilini's support was truely name recognition, Same thing with a lot of the candidates. Romney plastered Iowa and New Hampshire to gain name Recognition, and as he got more press time, his national numbers slowly trended up.
Huckabee has what I'd call, 'we think he's going to win so he's got my vote' support. People like to back a winner, even if they don't agree with that candidate. That buzz wears off quickly, and for the rest of the candiates, Huckabee may have caught the buzz a couple of weeks too soon. (though with the holidays coming up, getting a message out will become progressively difficult)
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"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI
look at where he was in Sept in the wake of Fred's entry.
Huckabee's campaign really came alive in Nov, and is pulling support from all quarters, including Rudy's.
Two unknowns at this point:
1) what happens when the infatuation is over. Rudy, Mitt, Fred have gone through this; I suspect Huck will, too.
2) what will be the dynamic of the early primary races, where Romney is still quite strong.
True, Fred had momentum at that point and rose into the high 20's.
There is a lot of volatility in these numbers. We can probably expect more as:
1) Huck gets more attention due to his boom and also as the post YouTube popularity contest euphoria wears off. We are picking a CIC in wartime, after all.
2) Mitt/Fred/Rudy go on the counteroffensive with their campaigns.
3) The dynamic of the early primaries unfolds, which is still favorable territory for Mitt, although maybe not as good as before.
You will have an interesting time graphing the future.
So get well!
Something here doesn't make any sense. The daily numbers show Giuliani down, Huckabee up, and virtually no change among the others.
To figure this out, I went into my genetic engineering lab and I tried to design a guy who would be a Rudy fan but would switch to Huckabee — bypassing Romney, Thompson, and McCain — if he read about the Giuliani mistress/cab-ride scandal.
I tried several recipes, but the only way to get this guy to do that was to put in a really small brain. I couldn't just make him a brainless "name recognition" Rudy voter, because the brainless ones all went to McCain when Rudy got Mediaboated. To get one to switch to Huckabee — to even know there exists a Huckabee — I had to make him at least be able to sit in front of a television and watch the news.
But I couldn't make him too smart. The smart ones knew what Rudy's positions were, and they knew what Huckabee's positions were, and I could not make them go from A to B. Most of those moved toward Thompson or McCain and then fell asleep.
Just now I made some with more brains but less knowledge. They know what Rudy was about and they know about McCain but they don't know much about the others. I put them down in front of the TV and they all immediately gravitated toward Huckabee. The problem is, the more they watch, the more confused they get.
I'll let you know what happens.
Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
I've undertaken the same experiment--and have discovered the answer.
I've incorporated into the brain a compulsive desire to see the Republican Party implode, combined with a reflexive form of speech--that always begins "Even Republican______rejects this extremist position on ___________." OR "But MODERATE Republican___________ says...."
When I dangled the issues of abortion or marriage in front of them, they supported Giuliani, and when I dangled the issues of taxes and immigration before them, they supported Huckabee.
I also found as a side effect that these same subjects repeatedly expressed their suitability for a career in journalism.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
There may be some people going purely on 'electability,' sure, but I think Giuliani's donating to None of that Above, and Huckabee's taking others from that same pile.
There is about 25% in that category.
Bye bye Rudy...