My Struggle – Part 1
Given our collective short attention span and the fact that we live in a shorter-than-ever-sound-bite society, I do fully realize that it is futile to try to convince everyone that individual Annual Global Average Temperature data points are questionable values at best and overall an absolutely meaningless figure of merit in this greater debate. (Just because you can measure / calculate something doesn’t make it relevant.)
My understanding is that those legitimately in the “climate” business have established the 30-year average as a standard for measuring climate status. Given the various multi-year (2, 4, 11, 22, etc.) cycles that we know to have effects on weather patterns, I’d argue that any standard below a 100-year average doesn’t quite capture the essence of the word “climate” and is statistically meaningless. But, once again, whose going to listen to little ‘ol me,
My current issue is with the all-to-common urge by even honest and reasonable people to make statements like this:
I am willing to concede the earth has warmed 1 degree over the past 100 years…
Ultimately that may be true but it is far from established fact so why concede anything at all? The available data doesn’t support anything near that much of an increase (if any at all). I also believe the “consensus” among the general public that things “just seem” warmer now is flat out wrong or that any increase is so negligible that no one could honestly detect a trend over their lifetime.
I tried to show this in an earlier diary featuring 30-year average Mean Temperature data for a random US data collection site (Albany, NY). “Climate” there went from 48.26 degrees Fahrenheit in 1910 to 47.60 degrees in 2000. That would be 0.66 degrees of Negative Global Warming right here in America.
Not all data collection sites (data available at CO2 Science) will fit this nicely into my storyline but maybe, just maybe, looking at enough data presented in a more proper context regarding "climate" will help put thing in some perspective for this little group of friends.
My quest here is to periodically (weekly?) select another random collection site from around the US (care will be taken to avoid locations that may be in the middle of a huge metropolitan area or had one grow up around it over the last 100 to 125 years) and present the maximum range for which I can calculate a reasonable 30-year average Annual Mean Temperature (some years are missing data).
Today’s location is: Manhattan, KS
In 1910 the 30-year average was roughly 53.70 degrees Fahrenheit but this skyrocketed to 54.31 degrees by 1998. That is 0.61 degrees of Positive Global Warming in our little game. However, there was a “rather insignificant” 46-year period (1921 throut 1967) when the “Climate” in northeast Kansas was even warmer (greater than 54.5 degrees – 0.80 degrees of Positive Global Warming).
SUMMARY TO DATE (in degrees Fahrenheit):
Albany, NY ------- 1910: 48.26 --- 2000: 47.60 --- Change: -0.66
Manhattan, KS -- 1910: 53.70 --- 1998: 53.31 --- Change: +0.61