SurveyUSA Indiana Final Poll: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%
By operationchaos Posted in 2008 — Comments (18) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The overall most reliable pollster this cycle SurveyUSA just released their final Indiana poll with Clinton opening up a double-digit lead, 54% to 42%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=777e9395-9b22-44ec-a52...
24 hours till votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22.
I believe there are two trendlines favoring Hillary for the past few contests.
1)the male voters are going for her. She generally had some big deficit among male voters. This has been reversed since her wins in OH/TX/RI.
2)Republican and independent crossover voters are going her way. Obama generally had a big lead among this group in earlier contests, but Clinton has basically erased her deficit since March.
Based on all the information we have had, Clinton will be a far more competitive general election candidate than Obama. One reason is her strength among key battleground states and key swing states. Her new strength among Republicans and independents seem to suggest many of those people who're ready to abandon GOP this cycle and who do not have her as a person can be persuaded to vote for her in November as she's perceived more and more as a moderate and tough-minded politician.
I still don't believe she'll get the nominee even if she wins Indiana convincingly.
The greatest single cause of Atheism today is Christians who profess Jesus with their lips & then go and deny him by their lifestyle. That's what an unbelieving world simply finds..unbelievable -Brennan Manning
Just furthers the narrative Clinton is trying to sell (and which is probably closer to the truth than her Party is willing to admit) - that Obama wins blacks and nutter academic types and not much else, and that's a recipe for 1988 at best or 1972 at worst. Massive defections by the white working class will mean Obama loses PA and OH and has no shot at other similar states (WV, KY, IN, rural western VA). A Democrat cannot win the White House if he spots the GOP the South plus OH, PA and FL, no matter how well he does in the Moutain West.
I'd say this, if economy stablizes over the next few months, McCain has a chance against Obama. However, if things continue to deterioriate, American voters will pick Bin Laden for president for the sake of 'change'.
There are recent polls showing that more people trust McCain on the economy than Obama. I don't think the economy is inherently a losing issue for McCain. He keeps his distance from Bush economic policies, and to the extent possible, becomes the driving force behind the more general Republican platform in the area. The economy is only a liability if a) it is made out to be all Bush's fault (I'm not sure that can be said) AND, b) McCain is inextricably linked to Bush's economic policies. Herein lies the benefit for McCain of having been praised as a "maverick" for the last 8 years - he's clearly not "Bush's guy" on every issue.
It's not just Bush, it's the entire GOP brand.
I'm always a firm believers that voters are sheep and irrational.It's always a 'in-the-moment' thing. They will do anything at the ballot box to vent their frustration.
I've never been a Bush fan, can't understand how that guy was even qualified for president. Obama is in the same mold of George W. Bush, very little achievement in their adult life, very little substance. Well, but sheep have been voting for them aided by drive-bys.
they are proof that the average IQ is around 100. The college kids swooning over Obama haven't a clue as to what life is about and they certainly aren't learning any critical analysis tools from their professors who are also sheltered and sequestered from most of the realities of the life.
M Penny
For that matter, I react badly to seeing sitting American Senators being explicitly called terrorists solely due to a perceived similarity in names. Don't do either again, thanks.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
....to less than 10 pts. Hillary has spent an awful lot of time there, and recent polling suggests that she could hold him to upper single digits. Because of the large percentage that blacks make in the NC Democrat primary, Hillary will need close to 70% of the white vote to win. That seems unlikely, but she could get 60%.
Indiana looks to be a win for Hillary - I predict in the range of 6-8 pts.
More important will be to demonstrate further that Obama cannot win working class white voters.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
If this poll is correct, than Hillary should win IN by more than ten points. Prior polls have shown that in most of the big non-Southern states - CA, OH, TX, and PA - the undecideds were actually anti-Obama. That would translate into a Hillary vote of 57 to 58%.
Of course, Survey USA blew the special House election in LA, where they had Cazayoux up 50 to 41, when he only won 49 to 46 on Saturday. So they are certainly not perfect.
NC is almost certainly going for Obama. If he gets at least a third of the white vote (which is likely) than he will get over 55%. I will guess a 58% to 42% victory.
if she beats him by a greater margin in Indiana than he can win in Carolina- that puts her in a strong position. Not enough to win the nomination, but strong enough to keep going to the Convention. Vote Clinton!!
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment, or anti-trade sentiment."
For what it is worth, suggesting that Obama cannot win working white Democratic voters in the general because he did not win a majority of them in the primary is a bit like saying that Senator McCain cannot win evangelicals in the general because a lot of them voted for Gov. Huckabee. That is far too simplistic. In *either* party's primary there can be core constituencies for a given candidate. Those may, or may not, coalesce around the eventual nominee, but it is hardly a given that Senator Obama will fail to do at least as well with those demographics as did Kerry or Gore.
Wishing will not make it so. This is a primary, where your choice is between two Democrats, not between a Democrat and John McCain. The result of one does not determine the other.
Also, a non-zero number of these white voters are Republicans who have zero interest in voting for either Democrat in the general election.
Spin the data however you like, wishing does not make it so.
We'll see how good a job the Democratic nominee does at pulling together the Dem party in a couple of months, after it's clear who the nominee is.
McCain had to overcome differences over policy.
For the Democratic nominee, it may be harder because the differences seem to be over identity--race and gender. If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, I don't know what she can say to overcome the disappointment of black Democrats who wanted to see a black President. They may still vote for her in the end, but the turnout may be much lower and they won't campaign for her.
Are you suggesting that identity politics played no major role in Governor Huckabee's very strong support among evangelicals? While the situations are not identical, there is a parallel here.
Some polls show that 30% of Hillary's voters will vote for McCain. I think that number is extremely inflated due to the poll being taken in the midst of a divisive primary. However, I don't think Obama will recapture all of them. I think it's realistic to expect that 10% or so would bolt for McCain.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Factor in the huge increase in dem registration and the liklihood of a worse economy in Nov and the fact that this will be after 8 yrs of gop in the WH.
Then factor in McCain's left leanings and that Hillary is a much better candidate as she moves right.
Hillary would beat McCain.
Obama would not. can't.
But, I don't want Obama more than I want Mccain.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
Assuming he wins the nomination, Obama will most likely win over 90% of the Democrats who voted in the primary. That is not his problem. His problem will be with the weaker blue collar Democrats and Hispanics, who didn't vote in the primaries, but who might have similar anti-Obama feelings caused by the brutal primary contest with Hillary.
McCain will not have that problem with weaker GOP voters.
btw,
I believe Obama will win NC convincingly. AA voters and white liberals will not abandon him, period, even if he's found with a dead boy or a live girl in bed.