House Incumbents Vulnerable
By pennconservative Posted in 2006 — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
From the diaries . . .
Traditional wisdom dictates that incumbents have all of the advantages. This wisdom may be turned on it's head, however, considering the level of voter dissatisfaction with the job that our government is doing. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that voter approval of the job that their representative is doing has dropped seven points.
Especially worrisome for members of Congress is that the proportion of Americans who approve of their own representative's performance has fallen sharply. Traditionally, voters may express disapproval of Congress as a whole but still vote for their own member, even from the majority party. But 55 percent now approve of their lawmaker, a seven-percentage-point drop over three months and the lowest such finding since 1994, the last time control of the House switched parties.
The MSM will bang this drum all the way to November, assuring us that Republicans will lose control of the House. However, there is more to elections than approval ratings. In order to beat an incumbent, even one with a dismal approval rating, you have to have a viable alternative. The dirty little secret of today's political landscape is that the Democrats are unable to field strong candidates. Democrats are largely incoherent on the issues that matter most to Americans today.
From the GWOT to Social Security to the economy, Democrats have yet to craft a message that will resonate with the people. There may be a candidate here and there that is able to speak articulately about the issues, but by and large the Democrats are devoid of a message right now. This favors Republican incumbents.
The X factor here is that "all politics is local." It is impossible to take a national poll about the mood of the electorate and determine what the House will look like post-November 7. There are so many factors that go into House races that painting with a broad brush becomes near impossible. Again, it is not enough for voters to be dissatisfied. There must be a viable alternative that has the resources to communicate their message.
That's not to say that I don't think that there's a chance that Republicans will lose the House this year. I think that that is a real possibility. However, just because the media says it's going to happen, doesn't make it so.
How do we know this isn't just an outlier?
Show me several polls from several sources that show that "own representative" approval rating go down, and I'll probably write off the House this year. One public poll, though, doesn't say anything to me.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
That suggests that incumbents are feeling the heat. From PA-8:
Freshman Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, R-8, Monday blasted President Bush's “stay the course” policy for the war in Iraq, a strategy he has publicly supported throughout his first-term on Capitol Hill.
“I have reluctantly concluded ... that when it comes to the war in Iraq, President Bush has been bold, principled, resolute, but mistaken in crucial ways vital to the success of our mission there,” Fitzpatrick said Monday morning in a conference call with reporters. “I believe we need a new strategy for success in Iraq.”
Fitzpatrick said Bush has not sent enough troops into Iraq, underestimated the “tenacity” of the United States' enemies in the war and has not properly conveyed how long the war would last or how difficult it would be to win.
We heard the same drumbeat from MSM in 2002 after Enron, Worldcom, and Global Crossing scandals. The MSM predicted that the then-thin margin in the House favoring the GOP would end. The Democrats peaked during the summer, then took a nose-dive in November.
I am perfectly content to see the Democrats enjoying the perception of largesse. Nevermind the fact that the Democratic Party is in worse shape today than it has been in over 70 years. Let them get smug. It didn't help them in 2002.
Romney/Coburn 2008 = Unbeatable
The reason why we keep getting “public in sour mood” polls is because affluent and happy people (and or republican conservatives) are under represented in this poll and in many others. This poll for example samples 34% Dems & 34% Independents. The little ol’ republicans are the minority in this pseudo world at 27%. If my numbers serve me correctly wasn’t the voter ID in the ’04 election 37% D & 37% R? I mean come on! How can one take a poll seriously when independents are portrayed as a bigger voting block than republicans. Here are the internals.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_080606.htm
the fact that many of us are unhappy with our Representative (i.e. for voting for the minimum wage increase) but that it doesn't translate into voting against said nominee.
Which PA incumbents are you most concerned about and why? Gerlach, Weldon, Fitzpatrick, Dent? What about English, Murphy, and perhaps Sherwood? How are these candidates doing on the ground? Their campaigns? Their opponents?