Redstate

Posted at 4:19am on Jun. 29, 2008 Mr Mugabe's world tour

By qlangley

Mr Mugabe, I wonder would you please accompany me on a brief world tour? Yes, yes, please do bring some of your generals. And bring a few of your senior police officers. I would very much like them to see what I have to show you.

Our first stop doesn’t take us very far. This, as I am sure you know, is South Africa. And this is Archbishop Desmond Tutu. I am sure you remember him: one of the heroes of liberation from white supremacist rule in southern Africa. I know you would like to see yourself in the same category but, let’s be honest, you replaced rule by one set of gangsters for rule by a different gang. Not the same thing at all.

Posted in Contra Tyrannum — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 1:41am on May 21, 2008 The shifting battleground

By qlangley

One of the odd things about this year's primary campaign is that the likely nominees have both tended to win states which they have no chance of winning in the general election while losing their parties hardcore states. Larry Sabato divides the states into those that are strong for one party (won by more than 10% in 2004), lean towards it (5%-10%) or battleground (won by less than 5%). McCain won the primaries in all but one (MA) of the strong Democratic states, while Obama won only half of the six. Of the 18 strong Republican states that have voted so far, Obama has won 13. Of the 17 that have voted on the GOP side, McCain has won just 7.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 3:00am on Apr. 30, 2008 Politics as snooker

By qlangley

In the World Snooker Championship matches are decided over 25 frames. The first player to win 13 frames is thus the winner, irrespective of whether the other player has won 0 or 12. Imagine, therefore, that, after 22 frames, the score stands at 12-10. Obviously the leading player has a distinct advantage. He need only win one more frame to secure the match. The other player, by contrast, needs to win all the remaining frames.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 4:37am on Apr. 16, 2008 Nobel peace effort

By qlangley

Fresh from his attempts to bring peace to the Middle East, former President and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Jimmy Carter is to tackle an even thornier problem: how to bring peace to the Democratic Party.

"I know its a major challenge," Carter explained, "probably the biggest of my career, but I believe it can be done. I believe that if we get this pair around a table we can make major progress. I believe that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both people of good will. But, then, I believe that rabbits can swim".

Posted in 2008 — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 9:22am on Apr. 14, 2008 The credentials clash

By qlangley

Perhaps someone will correct me if I am wrong about this, but I believe that the delegates to the Democratic Convention's Credentials Committee are drawn from the delegates elected to the Convention. This means that delegates from states and territories won by Clinton are likely to vote to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates and those from states, territories and the district won by Obama are likely to vote against. So who has the maths on their side?

Posted in 2008 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 8:15am on Apr. 14, 2008 Obama is losing it

By qlangley

There has been growing coverage - and a YouTube video could prove the killer app - of Barack Obama's controversial comments about small town America. But his questioning of General Petraeus is equally informative.

According to Joe Klein in Time, he handled himself well. He often does. But the point of his questioning seemed to be to set out a new Iraq policy. It now seems to be his position that since the US is winning, and is on the point of achieving most of its goals, it is the right time to start bringing home troops. In this he is not far off. It is probably still a little early, but that certainly is the right basis on which to bring troops home.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 4:50pm on Apr. 1, 2008 Book review: The Other Boleyn Girl

By qlangley

First of all, it’s important to note that the book is fiction. It doesn’t claim to be an accurate portrayal of any of the people involved. A simple recitation of the facts is not a story. To create a story the Philippa Gregory has had to weave in portraits of individuals and add events which are speculative, at best. Such works are bound to be controversial. It is a matter of certainty that many people will disagree with much of the speculation and interpretation in a work of this kind. It is especially certain in this case. While the factions that fought the Wars of the Roses a generation earlier are now gone, the factions which disputed the marriage of Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon were Protestants and Catholics. These factions not only still exist, they run universities and schools. Protestant educations and Catholic educations differ. These differences remain very real today.

Posted in Culture — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 8:47am on Mar. 29, 2008 McCain wins

By qlangley

I decided this morning that it is very unlikely that either of the leading Democrats can beat McCain. His main advantages at present are:

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

The whole Pastor Wright story is hurting Obama in the polls, but let us not forget the measurable influence of the Bradley-Wilder-Obama Effect, in which polls overstate his support. In primaries - especially in large and competitive states - he is getting creamed by Clinton. It is his huge lead in caucuses that is giving him the edge. When the electorate is wide and gets to vote in secret, Obama loses. A few days ago I was convinced he would get hammered in PA and that North Carolina would be closer than expected. A Clinton win there would tip the whole balance of the campaign, and I was beginning to think it was a real possibility. It still is possible. Wright is surely hurting him in reality much more than in the polls.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (31) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 3:00pm on Mar. 24, 2008 A simple proposal

By qlangley

Wouldn't it be great if there was one simple act that could radically alter the world economy. Well, first of all, let's ask what the problems are:

1. Energy prices are high. Actually, all commodity prices are high, despite long-term downward trends. But oil is unreasonably high, and the high prices are based as much on market sentiment and fears about the instability of the Middle East as underlying supply and demand.

Posted in Economy — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 10:48am on Mar. 22, 2008 Measuring the impact of Pastor Wright

By qlangley

According to the Rassmussen Daily Tracking poll, Obama's lead over Clinton (formerly 8 points, outside the margin of error for polls such as this) has virtually disappeared. He now leads by one point. Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania seems to have increased, while Obama's lead in North Carolina has decreased. While 51% thought Obama's speech was good or excellent, it doesn't seem to have impacted the polling figures yet, and 56% remain concerned about his links to Wright.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 5:12am on Mar. 19, 2008 The last of The Three

By qlangley

Three men changed the Twentieth Century, and now the last of The Three is gone. I am not talking about people who butchered millions, but of three men who dreamed of what may one day come to be, and lifted our eyes from the gutter to the stars: Robert A Heinlein, Isaac Asimov and Arthur C Clarke.

They were the greatest generation yet, and for an important reason. They were the last generation of SF writers who dreamed of the Moon landing as an event in the future. There is nothing more iconic in science fiction than this, except First Contact. If First Contact ever happens, perhaps the generation that straddles its transition from dream to reality will give as much as The Three have done.

Posted in Culture — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 6:02am on Mar. 5, 2008 Show us the team, John

By qlangley

This is it. This is the situation every political party dreams of. Like him or not, the GOP now has its candidate. The Dems are still fighting. They will keep fighting for six more months, and it is going to get dirtier and dirtier. It is going to come down to whether or not Clinton can get the rules changed to count in Michigan and Florida, and even then it will be decided by fewer than 100 delegates.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 6:21pm on Feb. 14, 2008 Obama still not on course to clinch things

By qlangley

After super-Tuesday I wrote that either Clinton or Obama would need to win 1400 (70%) of the remaining 2,000 elected delegates to secure the nomination from pledged delegates alone. Anything short of that leaves the potential that super-delegates could swing the vote and that they could vote to seat Florida and Michigan - which would provide Clinton with a net gain of around 100 votes.

For all the talk about Obama "sweeping" the subsequent primaries and caucuses he exceeded 70% of the delegate count only in DC, where he secured all the delegates. His next best performances were Virginia and Nebraska where he won exactly 2/3 of the delegates. In Washington he won over 70% of the delegates awarded so far, but more will be allocated by primary, at which Clinton tends to do better.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 10:17am on Feb. 13, 2008 Target states 2008

By qlangley

The South

No Republican targets

Democratic targets:

Florida: Bush beat Kerry by five points. Clinton carried this state in 1996 but not in 1992. So why was it so close in 2000? Polling suggests it wasn’t, until Gore put Lieberman on his ticket. This time Lieberman is campaigning for the Republican.

Virginia: Bush by eight points, but there is a long-term trend here that is not favourable to Republicans. A formerly solid state is now a definite target.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (27) / Email this page » / Read More »

Posted at 5:11pm on Feb. 8, 2008 Running six months ahead

By qlangley

Just a few weeks ago - when I thought Rudy Giuliani could win Florida, on onward to take four of the states that actually went to McCain - I was concerned that the Republican race would go all the way to the Convention. The Democrats, by contrast, had only two candidates and could easily have selected a prohibitive front-runner on Tsunami Tuesday.

I wrote this blog on how the GOP could cope with a situation of fighting for the nomination six months after the Democrat candidate was known.

Posted in 2008 — Comments (83) / Email this page » / Read More »