Is Ron Paul actually improving in the polls?
By redlightgrnlight Posted in 2008 — Comments (19) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
[Editor's note: I do not officially support a Republican candidate in the 2008 primary, and I have posted in various streaks on RedState for two years.]
Of course, it's sometimes hard to distinguish a blip from a trend. But if it's two or three blips, with a little toss of the dice, maybe it's a signal of a trend.
The latest New Hampshire poll pegs Paul's support at 7.4%, good for fourth place and leading Huckabee at 6% and Thompson at 5% (and quite some distance behind third-place McCain).
The latest California poll pegs Paul support at 4%, tied with Huckabee and a point ahead of Tancredo and Hunter.
According to Rasmussen, Paul garners 38% of the national vote to Clinton's 48% in a head-to-head matchup. That trails Giuliani's 41% to Clinton's 48%, but it beats Thompson's 38% to Clinton's 52%.
And the dice? They say ballot position is worth two points or so. And in the critical state of Missouri, Paul has secured a spot at the top.
There's no question that Paul remains a wildcard in this election and an unknown quantity to anyone figuring out this race. But stories like this indicate that Paul really may be more of an impact than minimalists suggest. It's likely not enough to pull off victory, but it's more than enough to make him relevant deep into the primary should it press on meaningfully past Super Tuesday.
As I understand it, Paul will stick around as long as he's got the funding, which I think means he'll want to become a spoiler. Perhaps some of the Paul supporters have a clearer vision of his strategy... I certainly don't see him dropping out, even if he ends up with zero delegates, until he's exhausted his funding promoting his message.
Now, I am not posting spam but am continuing the idea of Ron Paul running while he has money in his coffers...
It seems that Ron Paul will be making about $1 million on the fifth of November this year with a money bomb. That should pay for 6 more weeks of his message.
Those Paul spammers sure have a lot of cash and there are at least 9400 of them that are going to contribute $100 on November 5th.... Mike Huckabee's goal for the month of October was just over 1 million. That means Paul could raise as much funds in a day as Mike can pull in in a month.
SCARY huh?
"Representative Paul, you used to be against the [Iraq] surge, but now favor the [November fundraising] surge. How do you justify your flip-flop?"
I don't personally believe that he wants to become a spoiler. I think that's is an overly cynical position to take. At the very least, he should be given credit for being sincere about his message. Whether he really believes he can win or not (he's mounted two long-shot campaigns in his past), it appears that he is sincere enough about his message that he wants to see how far it can take him... whether than means playing spoiler or not.
I personally think that the only candidates who can stop him in his tracks are Thompson and Huckabee. Thompson doesn't have the religious appeal that Huckabee has, but he's got it much more than Giuliani does. And Mitt? Doesn't he just seem like the Republican answer to John Kerry? Maybe it's my own personal bias, but I would have a hard time getting excited to vote for slick Mitt.
I personally don't believe Paul could overcome a united front behind Fred.
I'd tend to think that all else being equal, you'd expect Ron Paul to do better in New Hampshire than any other state. Isn't it the most independent?
Those national head to head numbers show that at least a third of people are going to vote for any GOP candidate rather than Hillary, so you can't make much out of those numbers re Paul I don't believe.
Isn't there something shocking in seeing Paul outpolling Thompson in a head-to-head v. Clinton? That's what I found so surprising by the result.
Also, in theory, if given the name "Paul," you'd think you'd have significantly more undecideds... but that's not the case here.
I am happy he is doing so well. I think he will continue to gain support as we get closer to election day because he is spending the war-chest now and his name recognition will go up dramatically.
He has stated several times that he is not interested in running as a third party candidate. I do not believe that he will flip-flop on this decision. Although if he did, I am not sure that his staunchly anti-war platform would not drain votes away from the democrats. He has a good deal of support from people who consider themselves democratic voters.
I honestly don't see how the GOP will win this year unless they put up someone with positions greatly different from Hillary on the war, immigration, and spending (domestic and military). The only thing we would have going for us is that people hate her almost as much as they hate Rudy G.
And this one's kind of a surprise. The story's about name-recognition and how the Democrats have a huge advantage (but note: see Democrats in 1991). Yet 7% of respondents could name Ron Paul unprompted. A pretty impressive stat given the rest of the field's numbers.
I must say that I would like to see him make it. Its not like his ideas are anything new, but they are refreshing. To me he is saying what alot of people are thinking, me being one of them. Some of his ideas I do not agree with, such as education, those areas require more attention in my mind. Our schools are a mess!
Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.
-Thomas Jefferson
Since he is only advocating that the Federal Government stay out of it and leave education to local communities (state, county etc.), I can seel ittle to object to.
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The oldest political error:
Because everyone wants something, government should or must provide it.
If the error is pervasive, the result is the society of a totally enslaved people.
If it is completely uprooted, the result is the society of a totally free people.
In my opinion yes and no. We are a united states and i believe there needs to be a national standard, an equal right to education no matter what state you live in. If one state lowers a passing GPA and another state raises their passing GPA, the result would be a lower standard of acceptable education in that state. There needs to be regulation for an equal education, if not at the federal level, then perhaps a watchdog group that keeps he bar equal for all.
Now, thats one point that I dont agree with. However i do agree with certain ideas on the same subject, such as people without children, should not have to contribute funds to educate the children of others.
If someone wants to have 5 kids and I have none, I should not be expected to help contribute to their education, that should fall upon the responsibility of the parent(s) that decided to have 5 kids. If you cant afford 5 kids, dont have 5 kids. That was your choice and you are responsible for that choice.
The people need of this country need to be held responsible for their actions, in all areas.
Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.
-Thomas Jefferson
At this stage, I also agree that Ron Paul could significantly affect the other red candidates' (not sure who) chances of beating the blues, ASSUMING his name recognition and appeal doesn't grow exponentially. However, if he does explode in popularity, he MAY have a slim shot, assuming this whole process isn't fixed. Of course this is hollow speculation, simple ego driven opining and annoying at best. Nevertheless, what I see are RP supporters, who are feverishly motivated to action, whereas, the other camps' activities seem lacklustering. This isn't to say libertarian activism wins elections, but America is 'trend' driven, and supporting the underdog seems to be very trendy and attractive to disgruntled over-taxed Americans who work hard for their money, only to see it pissed away by the government. Finally, my vacuous projection is: Ron Paul will garner unexpected numbers, not get nominated, disenfranchised Ron Paul supporters will write his name in, taking away crucial votes from Republicans, and the 20 yr. Bush-Clinton-Bush Jr.-Clinton dynasty will prevail...thats pretty sad....then you'll see some seriously apathetic Americans. As far as I swing, I just want someone to cut taxes bigtime and end the welfare state. Only thing that matters to me is how much $$$$$$$$$ I get to take home and even if Ron Paul couldn't make the phased changes he espouses, it would be a real interesting 4 yrs with him in office. If not him, I like Huckabee minus the yokel evengelical sentimental crap and Tancredo cause this immigration swarm is killing this country.
Pah-leeese!
"disenfranchised Ron Paul supporters will write his name in, taking away crucial votes from Republicans"
Wrong, because those "disenfranchised" voters would either have stayed home or voted Democrat in the first place!
"I just want someone to cut taxes bigtime and end the welfare state"
Rome wasn't built in a year, and it won't be dismantled in a year. Vote Republican. its the best game in town!
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About the Author
Lord Vegas is a true American. some would call him a Mutt, but he prefers the term mixed breed.
I wouldn't come to that conclusion so quickly, many supporters of the man are actually "disenfranchised" Republicans. I think writing them all off as democrats or non-voters could be a mistake. Just seems this is what I have found in my run ins with em.
Just seems this is what I have found in my run ins with em.
You mean run ins at meetups and things? Hey! Weren't you on that ferry?
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About the Author
Lord Vegas is a true American. some would call him a Mutt, but he prefers the term mixed breed!
Nope, live in South Carolina my friend, nice try though. I am an undecided republican to boot, so no ferry trips in Michigan for me. Try not to get so offended when someone makes a comment. You were asking me like you were there though... were you?
Nice chattin wit ya, I gotta head to my RP meetup now... just playin mods.
Forgetting they are actually democrats.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Pat Buchanan did pretty well in NH too. It seems to be a state where paleo-conservatism gets rewarded, and Paul pretty much fills the bill.
Of course, Pat got a lot more than 7% of the vote, and look how well it turned out for him. I can't see Ron Paul ever getting up to the 50% it takes to win late primaries, for much the same reasons. Not enough appeal to the party as a whole.
That said, I'd like to see us balance isolationism and interventionism a little better in the party. That'd help us with independents as well as with such Ron Paul supporters as we'd actually want.
...decides to become a Spoiler in the fall. "Teach the Republicans a Lesson" and all that cal.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill