Redstate

By Rick Moran Posted in 2008 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

It's been a long time since we here in Illinois had a favorite son to cheer on in the Presidential race. The much beloved former Illinois Senator Paul Simon, was a candidate in 1988 and ran a throwback race. The gentle man with horn rimmed glasses, bow tie, and professorial manner was an unreconstructed liberal in the classic sense. Perhaps one of the smartest men ever to serve in government, Simon's cerebral campaign never caught on with the voters and he ended up in the back of the pack - a shame in many ways since politicians who are honest, smart, and actually care about the people are something of a rarity. I don't think I would have agreed with Simon if he said the sun set in the west. But I would have given serious consideration to voting for him if he had been the Democratic nominee for President.

Read on . . .

Simon had been in politics for nearly 35 years before making his attempt at the brass ring. He served in the Illinois House, as Lieutenant Governor, the US House, and was elected to the Senate in 1984. Rarely has a man with such breadth of experience in government, keen intellect, and passion for politics offered himself up as a candidate for high office. I suppose time had, in many ways passed him by in that the slick, media driven campaigns he was up against overwhelmed his efforts. Hard to condense his thoughtful and articulate ideas into 30 second sound bites.

Illinois' current favorite son in the Presidential sweepstakes does not have 35 years of experience in politics. He is not possessed of a great intellect. But Barak Obama is many things - smart, charismatic, articulate, an excellent public speaker, and something of an idea man. And as of today, he is a candidate for President of the United States:

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama formally entered the 2008 race for the presidency today, contending he has the experience to know that "Washington must change" and billing himself as the leader who will bring a new generational attitude to address the nation's challenges.

Speaking in a single-digit, morning chill and sunshine to thousands of supporters outside the Old State Capitol, the first-term Democratic senator delivered an address that built upon his biography as a community organizer in Chicago, state legislator and U.S. senator to call for quick action on issues ranging from bringing a close to the Iraq war to the need for universal health care and an end to foreign-oil dependence.

The historic announcement by the state's 45-year-old junior Democratic senator--launching a three-day wave of campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire with a Chicago fundraiser in between--is heavily tinged in symbolism for the first black candidate with a realistic chance of obtaining the broad-based support necessary for securing a major party presidential nomination.

And befitting a favorite son from Illinois, Obama summoned the ghost of Abraham Lincoln, calling forth the spirit of the Great Emancipator in an effort to unite the nation under the banner of the first black candidate of either party who is seen as having a good chance at winning through to victory:

Using the home of Lincoln's 1858 "House Divided" speech as a backdrop, Obama frequently paid homage to the 16th president for using his will and words to bring a country divided by war together as one through the goal of freedom.

"In the shadow of the Old State Capitol, where Lincoln once called on a divided house to stand together, where common hopes and common dreams still live, I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States," Obama said.

"I recognize there is a certain presumptuousness--a certain audacity--to this announcement," he said. "I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I've been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change."

Now that he's in the race, if history is any guide, the national press will do their best to tear him down. After months of building him up and making his candidacy seem more like a coronation, all of the pundits and scribblers who have urged him to run will now shift gears and start digging into his past. Every word he has uttered will be scrutinized. Every vote will be analyzed. They will interview his high school sweetheart, his teachers, his minister, his boyhood friends, neighbors, acquaintances, and most especially, any enemies he's made as he climbed the ladder of success.

The problem that the press and Obama's opponents will have, however, is that there really isn't much there to criticize - yet. Not much of a record. Not many votes. Very few public pronouncements. Obama is still something of a cipher. His public personae - cool, controlled, collected - gives few clues as to what's behind the engaging smile and confident bearing.

One thing is certain. In the crucible of the marathon that is a Presidential campaign, it will be next to impossible to hide any shortcomings. Obama will be tested as he has never been tested before. The campaign will have its way with him and we will discover together whether he truly has what it takes to be president.

Can he win? He and Hillary will battle it out in the early primaries (assuming Obama doesn't collapse in the next year due to a scandal or some major faux pas) along with John Edwards whose longshot effort will fail if the former North Carolina Senator can't win one of the first 4 contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. But Hillary and Obama will probably be well funded enough that they will be able to absorb some early setbacks and stay competitive at least through the first "Super Tuesday" on February 5th when 10 states will hold primaries. Beyond that, it is impossible to say. That's because it is difficult to gauge Obama's appeal to different regions, different constituencies.

Frankly, I think he doesn't have much of a chance. Not because he's black. Not because he doesn't have enough experience. Quite simply, he is too liberal for this new Democratic party that is emerging in the south and west:

When Obama's record and views are separated from the mythmaking and rock star rapture he's wrapped in, the problem of his electability looms large. Obama got a perfect 100 rating from the NAACP, National Organization for Women, National Education Association, the Children's Defense Fund, the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees, and the Illinois Environmental Council (during his stint in the Illinois legislature), and a huge plus rating from the ACLU. He got his perfect rating from them for his Senate votes on labor, education, the environment, choice, civil rights and civil liberties. These are America's top liberal advocacy groups, and they are some of his most ardent cheerleaders.

Meanwhile, Obama bombed badly in the ratings he got from the conservative National Taxpayers Union, National Right to Life, the Gun Owners of America, the NRA, the Federation for Immigration Reform, and the American Conservative Union. These are some of the nation's top conservative advocacy groups, and they reflect the interests and views of millions of voters on immigration, spending, guns, abortion, and military prowess. These are the voters that will scrutinize his record and his views with a laser eye.

In short, Obama could very well be blown away in many midwestern and western states where the black vote is less important and where many of these "new Democrats" were elected in 2006. Less liberal, more socially conservative than Democrats in the northeast, Obama will have to sidle toward the center if he wants to be competitive in many of those states.

And under the proportional distribution system for allotting delegates, this would mean that he would have to win big in the larger northeastern states as well as delegate-rich states like Texas and Florida in the south in order to remain viable. It could be that by the March 18 Illinois primary, Hillary will be seen as the inevitable choice, rendering the rest of his campaign an exercise in futility.

Then again, Hillary could stumble early and make Obama seem inevitable although that scenario presupposes that the more than $100 million dollars that she can raise by forgoing public financing between now and the primaries won't be a difference maker.

This is not Obama's time. And he is young enough that he could absorb a defeat and still come back in 8 or even 12 years to try again. But any way you look at it, his candidacy will be historic and, for those of us who love politics, exciting to watch.