McCain Proving Himself a Canny Campaigner
By Rick Moran Posted in Archived — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
One of the biggest concerns going into the general election for Republicans has to be the massive discrepancy between the amount of money raised by Democratic candidates in the primaries - especially Barack Obama - and the amounts raised by the GOP.
For John McCain who was broke just a few short months ago, this is a matter of life and death. With a massive donor base that Obama will be able to tap anew for the general election campaign, it is quite possible that the Illinois senator would be able to double the amount raised by McCain over the course of the race. Obama corralled more than 135,000 individual donors alone in 2008 so far. This puts him well over 200,000 contributors he can call on.
How then, can McCain neutralize this huge advantage? It seems that back when McCain was a frontrunner in early 2007, he made a pledge to accept federal financing for the general election if the Democratic candidate did the same. Apparently, Barack Obama took him up on that challenge at the time. Here's the New York Times from 3/2/07:
Senator John McCain joined Senator Barack Obama on Thursday in promising to accept a novel fund-raising truce if each man wins his party’s presidential nomination.
“Should John McCain win the Republican nomination, we will agree to accept public financing in the general election, if the Democratic nominee agrees to do the same,” Mr. Nelson [then McCain’s campaign manager] said.
A spokesman for Mr. Obama, Bill Burton, said, “We hope that each of the Republican candidates pledges to do the same.”
Mr. Burton added that if nominated Mr. Obama would “aggressively pursue an agreement” with whoever was his opponent.
Sounds cut and dried, doesn't it? If McCain and Obama square off in the general election, both will take public financing, right?
Not so fast, says the Agent of Change in politics:
Obama’s campaign is backing away from suggestions that the Illinois senator would publicly finance his campaign in the general election, if he’s the nominee, and referring to public financing as an “option” — not as the “pledge” McCain’s campaign claims Obama made.
[snip]
I asked Burton again today if this was a "pledge," and he repeated that it's an "option."
"The only reason this is an option is because we pursued the decision from the FEC. As the Clinton campaign continues to remind you, Obama is not the nominee, but this is a question we will address when he is," he said in response to Davis' remark.
For McCain, this has left an opening that you can drive a truck through. And he has been savaging Obama about breaking his "pledge" all week:
Hammering Senator Barack Obama for a fourth straight day, Senator John McCain said here on Friday that he expects Senator Obama to abide by his pledge use public financing for his general election if Mr. McCain does so as well.
“It was very clear to me that Senator Obama had agreed to having public financing of the general election campaign if I did the same thing,” he said after a town hall meeting here. “I made the commitment to the American people that if I was the nominee of my party, I would go the route of public financing. I expect Senator Obama to keep his word to the American people as well.”
Asked if he would use public financing even if Mr. Obama did not, he said: “If Senator Obama goes back on his commitment to the American people, then obviously we have to rethink our position. Our whole agreement was we would take public financing if he made that commitment as well. And he signed a piece of paper, I’m told, that made that commitment.”
Predictably, there are some on the left who have hit the ceiling and are beside themselves that Obama would give up an election winning advantage:
For the first time ever, the Democratic party is outraising the Republican party. The party and its candidate will have the resources to compete on a huge playing field, not just shoring up its blue state base and courting voters in swing states, but there will also be the ability to truly compete in those red states the GOP is holding on to by a thread.
This election could be the one that knocks back conservatism for ten years to a generation.
Don't give up that advantage. This is the equivalent of the opposing coach asking the Bulls to bench Michael Jordan in his prime.
Kos decided to do a little whistling past the graveyard:
Look, no one gives a shit if Obama takes public financing or not. The Edwards campaign thought they'd get brownie points for opting in during the primary, and other than me criticizing them for it, they heard crickets. And that was among Democrats, who supposedly care about this sort of thing.
This is such a process story with zero relevance to the public that there's no benefit to be gained by taking public financing -- unless you can't raise it as fast as your opponent. Then you do whatever you can to try and goad your opponent to join you by opting in.
A "process story?" He's kidding himself. This attack hits Obama where it hurts the most - the idea that he's a different kind of politician, an "Agent of Change." How can Obama credibly make those claims if he's playing the old game of spending massive amounts of money to get elected. People won't care where it comes from. They'll only see that Obama would be raising an ungodly sum of money - playing politics the old fashioned way.
McCain's attacks are well aimed and on target. It will be interesting to see how Obama plays this. While he has not made a formal "pledge" to forgo federal financing, McCain still has him over a barrel because Obama was agreeable to the idea of public financing. Obama is trapped by his own supporter's ideal of the candidate. To this point, he has successfully wrapped himself in a cloak of unquestioned integrity - even if living up to that standard hurts him politically. This is what his supporters expect. To do anything less will assist in their disillusionment.
And that must be McCain's number one priority; level the race by bringing Obama back down to an earthly plane. McCain cannot win if on election day, Obama is seen as some kind of civic messiah. He must be exposed for the inexperienced, shallow thinking, ultra-liberal politician that he is.
Is there anything short of capitulation for Obama? Allah has his options:
1. Abide by the pledge and give up that moneybomb advantage. Not a chance.
2. Deny that he ever “pledged” to take public funds and weasel out of the deal. Possible.
3. Offer McCain an alternative deal which he’ll never accept because it plays too much to Obama’s advantages. See the “$150 contribution” proposal in LJ’s second post.
4. Accept the deal and shunt the moneybombs off onto 527s:
As the two campaigns dueled, people on both sides said it was possible that they would agree to accept public financing and then simply have each political party spend unlimited amounts on behalf of its candidate, including money for voter mobilization efforts and television commercials, as allowed by law.
5. Admit that he “pledged” but has to break his pledge now because he’s got a movement thing going that people want to be part of and, goshdarnit, it wouldn’t be fair to them to deny them the fun of donating. Weak, but still preferable to number one.
I think option #2 is really his only option. Whatever hit he takes politically pales in comparison to the advantage he will get by having all that Democratic cash to spend. Where McCain will be limited in going after targets of opportunity like Pennsylvania and perhaps even California, Obama, if he is fully funded, will be able to literally run a 50 state campaign. He and the various Soros-funded 527's will bury McCain under an avalanche of ads as well as organizing a GOTV operation that the GOP will be unable to match.
Still, this line of attack by McCain proves that he's a canny campaigner, making the most of what's available to him in order to score political points. It's never too early and McCain getting a head start on trying out some themes for his campaign shows that he may surprise some people with the aggressiveness of his campaign.
Don't you know how the playbook by now? Hit 'em on their strengths and Obama's strengths are his "integrity" and acting as an agent of change. This is smart and I applaud the McCain campaign.
"Glory is not a conceit. It is not a decoration for valor. Glory belongs to the act of being constant to something greater than yourself, to a cause, to your principles, to the people on whom you rely and who rely on you in return."-Senator McCain
Obama not taking taxpayer money for his fall campaign, is hardly the kind of issue sexy enough to make people start mistrusting Obama. His association with the corrupt slumlord has a lot more potential, and that hasn't stuck much.
With McCain now the sure Republican nominee, his status of media darling is over. No matter how much McCain whines about mean Barack not keeping his supposed promise to have the taxpayers pay for his campaign, the media won't give it any play (except where McCain gives them an opening to show him as a whining old man).
McCain's missing out on the Berkeley-Marines protests. There's an opportunity to play to the conservative base, emphasize his wise patriotism brand, and create a wedge between Sens. Clinton and Obama and the anti-war/anti-military Left. A good web video like the NRSC made and an corresponding e-mail would raise some much-needed cash and gather e-mail addresses.
If anything McCain should be defending his fellow members of the Navy. Yet, I haven't heard a peep from his campaign. It's like a big, giant softball waiting for John to hit out of the park.
Disclaimer: I used to work for Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.
I've been thinking the exact same thing. For the life of me, I don't understand why the McCain campaign has not capitalized on this. The NRSC has a great YouTube video out putting Dems' feet to the fire for not condoning Code Pink, etc.
McCain would win major points if he came out against these wackos.
Obama not taking taxpayer money for his fall campaign, is hardly the kind of issue sexy enough to make people start mistrusting Obama.
He made a pledge with the apparent objective of bringing 'change' and 'integrity' to Washington. If he breaks that pledge, it's a problem for him. The content of the pledge - which, I agree, is trivial - is not the point here.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
you guys are acting as though this will be the only thing Obama gets hit on. This is one part of the campaign to define him, there will be others. Get ya popcorn ready!
"Glory is not a conceit. It is not a decoration for valor. Glory belongs to the act of being constant to something greater than yourself, to a cause, to your principles, to the people on whom you rely and who rely on you in return."-Senator McCain
I'm more worried as to why McCain can't raise the money needed to run on his own. How can one run on getting government out of our lives and cutting spending when he runs to the government for handouts to run a campaign? How can he get the base when he is highlighting one of his worse policy breaks with the base on campaign finance? Will anyone care that he is whining about Obama not taking government handouts?
This is absurd!
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
is the question of Character. What Rick is rightly pointing out is that Obama signed an agreement and is now looking at backing out. He gave his word -- and now lacks the character to stick by what he agreed to.
You see, he agreed to Public Financing (that little checkbox on your IRS filing that will NOT change the amount of your refund). He agreed back in March of 2007 when his campaign was just in the fledgling stage and he had NO way of knowing he would have millions of dollars in donations rolling into his coffers.
In March of 2007, it looked like a darn good deal to Obama. By accepting public financing he would assure himself of getting the funds to compete. He had no way of knowing, THEN, what he knows NOW. Nobody, except possibly his wife, had even experienced an Obasm at that time.
NOW, he looks like a total hypocrite when he goes back on that promise. With the people distrusting politicians who will say ANYTHING to get elected, this makes him look bad.
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But McCain's going to need more than this. The NY Times reported McCain's talked about this on the stump for four days. Only now is it coming out. Obamamania can endure a blemish. Heck, the guy smokes and Democrats still go ga-ga over him.
Right now, McCain is missing opportunities with FISA and the Berkeley-Marines protests to create a good wedge between Obama and the anti-war Left.
But this will be the longest general Presidential election is U.S. history. He's got time.
Disclaimer: I used to work for Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.
it doesn't seem to be over yet. The press loves McCain for sticking to his pledge and they're giving Obama hell for trying to get out of his same pledge. Which press? The NY Times and the Wash Post. The Wash Post's editorial board is conservative Democrat, but the NYT's editorial board is as liberal as they come.
Frankly, I think McCain's honeymoon with the press ended years ago when he made it clear that he was going to continue to back the Iraq War come hell or high water.
But it's clear that the press is not going to give a free pass to the Democrats, even if they continue to give the Democrats more favorable coverage (as usual).
(Enjoy your frontrunner status while it lasts, Obama. At this rate, it won't last long...)
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
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"The Constitution is not a suicide pact". Justice Robert H. Jackson
politician and running an ordinary campaign.
Obama has elevated his campaign to another plane of existence - some are calling it a cult but I think it more a crusade. At this point, the man can do no wrong.
Anything - repeat anything - that can bring the man and hence his campaign back down earth and have him seen as just another liberal pol will benefit McCain enormously.
It may not be federal financing that accomplishes this. But we don't know that and it is extremely smart of McCain to make the effort.
emotional investment like this very long.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
they will have been Obasmed out!
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This post has been brought to by Thorazyne and other pychotropic drugs -- better living through chemistry
Rick, I don't deny McCain has to do something. I just don't think this argument will take hold. I hope I'm wrong.
Disclaimer: I used to work for Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.
The tax subsidy for the general election, if the candidates take it, is about $85 million. It is a MUCH better deal for the general election than for the primary. That's why even Bush took the general election subsidy.
Think about it - $85 million, to spend between the end of the GOP convention on September 4 and the election on November 4. That's a healthy $1.42 million per day. By comparison, through the end of 2007, Obama had been campaigning for over a year and spent about $85 million.
Additionally, because the subsidy comes with no strings attached, there are no fundraising costs. Typically, fundraising costs can eat up about 20% or more of the funds raised. In other words, to get $85 million to spend, you would have to raise more like $100 million. Obama's total amount raised in all of 2007 was just over $100 million. At this point, he is raising about $1 million a day, but is probably spending about that much, too. Let's suppose he wraps up the nomination after March 4 (a dubious proposition), he will still need to spend probably $300K a day through the summer. If the Democratic battle extends all the way to the convention, or even June, Obama will likely have to devote all his fundraising to the primary.
Now, you can start raising the general election money now, true, but Obama is still battling Hillary for the nomination, and he'll need to raise other money to stay on the airwaves between the time he might wrap up the nomination and the Democratic Convention ending on August 28.
And it gets tougher. Even subsidized candidates can raise money for a "GELAC" account, "General Election Legal and Accounting." This is privately raised but will typically total about $20 million. McCain can certainly raise that for the general. So McCain would have to match that $20-30 million McCain raises for his GELAC, plus the $100 million for campaign expenditures, just to match a subsidized McCain in the General Election.
In short, it is not at all clear that Obama can raise enough to battle for the Dem nomination AND fund his GELAC account AND raise still more for the general in an amount in excess of $100 million, which would be about what he would need to have parity in the general election with a subsidized McCain.
In the end, I don't think this will matter a whole lot.
Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website
But if Obama can raise $30 million a month - mostly from an online donor base - I would think that he would be stupid to limit himself to the $85 million in federal funds that would be available to him after July 1 when he might have $100 million by that date if he chooses to go the private route.
This is assuming he wraps up the nomination in April.
He would then have an additional two months of fund raising before the convention. Is there any reason he couldn't raise $150 million?
I see your point about overhead but we're talking money raised in amounts undreamed before. The temptation may just be too great.
The federal funds for the geneal are not available to him until the end of the Democratic Convention on August 28. Until then, he has to raise money privately. Assuming, as I calculated, he really needs about $120 million from the end of August to election day to be competitive with a subsidized McCain, he has to raise about $2 million a day, minus anything he can save up for the general election before then.
Meanwhile, before the end of August he must raise money to fund his primary battles and his expenses of staying visible etc. through the convention? Plus he'll have the hassle of raising funds, taking up time that could go to other events. You're talking about him probably raising another $200 million total, maybe more, between now and November. I'm not saying he can't, but I'm not sure he can, either. That's nearly double what he raised in his first year of campaigning.
Even Bush and Kerry took the subsidy for the general. There's a first time for everything, but I'm not sure that Obama's fundraising capacity is really that great.
Another way to look at it is this: Barack has to keep spending now to fight Hillary. So he's got to be spending more than McCain. Beyond that, between now and the general election, can he outraise McCain by $100 million? He's not close to that big an advantage for the last year - why can he do it over the next 8 and a half months?
Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website
"Plus he'll have the hassle of raising funds, taking up time that could go to other events."
Brad, I doubt it's much of a hassle since he's doing most of it online. Clever e-mails and great video work along with great charisma is powering his fundraising now.
Even if Obama decides to take public financing for the general there's no reason not to continue raising money and preparing the battlespace. I'm thinking of what Bill Clinton and the DNC did to Dole in 1996.
Disclaimer: I used to work for Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.
breath and I immediately have to reach for a Tums (actually the whole roll).
But looking at this objectively, I believe Rick is right on in this assessment. The news media is slavishly in the Obama camp and moderates and indies are swooning over his "new kind of politics/change" meme (gag me).
For McCain to go after him on this is not some esoteric 1st ammendment debate which is lost on a populace who doesn't even know what the 1st ammendment is anymore, It strikes at the core of Obama's 'new kind of politician' incantation.
John's greatest strength is the perception that he is a straight shooter. More than anyone else he can pull off the 'Obama's just politics as usual' tack. He certainly can't demolish the whole personna in one swift blow, not even in several, but...how do you eat a whale?
One bite at a time.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"Obama has elevated his campaign to another plane of existence - some are calling it a cult but I think it more a crusade. At this point, the man can do no wrong."
This is it in a nutshell. Think about this if you will. After 8 years the country is in Bush fatigue, just like Clinton fatigue in 2000. The Dems as a party have that going for them.
McCain has to fight that.
The conservatives in the party don't like McCain, they hold his record during the last decade against him.
He has to fight that.
The Obama campaign is predicated on simplistic ideas without a lot of substance, but it's appealing to making people feel good and generating hope (perhaps falsely, but it's working).
McCain has to make the appeal and defend administration policies he agrees with and differentiate without alienting the base.
McCain has to fight a three or four front war, while Obama can simply dictate the terms of his campaign. Keep in mind, career politicians are much harder to elect President. The last professional politician we elected President was 1988, Bush and 1968, Nixon. I discount Clinton because he never did anything outside of Arkansas, and the careerists I'm referring to are inside the beltway.
It's much easier to take a slightly unknown quantity, a small state governor or a one or two term Senator, than it is to elect someone who has 30 years in DC.
The problem with McCain, in addition to all the other reasons elaborated above and in my posts, is he is already defined by the press. He did this to himself with his votes. It's his issue. Let the convincing begin.
Or desperate?