New MI Poll: Rudy then Mitt then Fred with Duncan and Uncle Ron sitting in the corner... but will we get to vote?
By RightMichigan.com Posted in Archived | Fred Thompson | Hillary Clinton | Michigan | Mitt Romney | poll | POTUS | Ron Paul | Rudy — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Cross-posted on Right Michigan at www.RightMichigan.com.
And now we sit and we wait. Yesterday the Michigan Republican and Michigan Democrat Parties presented their case before a three-judge panel on the Michigan Court of Appeals arguing that Michigan's joint January 15th Primary should be allowed to go ahead as planned, despite a lower court ruling. The Lansing State Journal reports:
"We're operating on a short string here, and it's not anybody's fault," Judge Patrick Meter said.
The judges adjourned the hearing without indicating when they might hand down a ruling, although they said they understood the importance of a speedy decision.
State officials want the matter decided because elections clerks need to mail absentee ballots to overseas Michigan voters by Dec. 1 if the primary is to be held on Jan. 15.
Word out of the courtroom was that the panel appeared extremely skeptical but it's tough to read anything into that. It's sort of their job to look skeptical, ask really tough questions of everyone and convince each side that they're going to lose. Time will now tell.
And as we pretend to have patience we've got new Michigan specific Presidential poll numbers to consider.
According to a new Detroit News/WXYZ-TV statewide survey, Giuliani is favored by 28 percent of Republicans -- slightly better than the 25 percent support for Romney, a Michigan native whose father was the state's governor in the 1960s. Both former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Arizona Sen. John McCain continue to lag behind. Thompson is still third, now at 13 percent, followed by McCain, at 12 percent.
Rounding out the Republican field is Huckabee at 9, triple the support he held in the last poll, Ron Paul at 2 percent and Duncan Hunter sitting by himself in the corner with 1%. On the Dem side it's stopped being a contest. Hillary Clinton is sitting pretty... well... maybe that's a bad choice of words. Clinton is in good shape at... no... wait... Clinton is happy with the results of the poll that show her with 49%. (Phwew!) Barack Obama comes in a distant second at 18, down a few points from the last poll.
While poll results are merely a snapshot of a certain moment in time it's just plain not a pretty picture for McCain, Paul and Hunter. I know, I know, Ron Paul is going to win the primary and that's why the black helicopters are trying to covertly blow up the voting process. It's all an inside job etc etc etc.
And speaking of inside jobs, check out this article in today's FREEP:
Lawmakers could meet this weekend to resolve differences between the House and Senate, said Rep. Steve Bieda, D-Warren, chairman of the House Tax Policy Committee.
The Detroit Regional Chamber issued a report showing it would collectively cost Michigan businesses $900 million to comply with the services tax -- more money that it would generate.
House and Senate leaders said Thursday they hope to vote on a compromise next week to repeal the new state tax on services scheduled to take effect Dec. 1. Some major business groups that include the Detroit Three automakers are backing a House bill to replace the service tax with a 33% surcharge on the new Michigan Business Tax.
That last paragraph is the real kicker. Compliance costs to business would be nearly $300 million MORE than the tax itself. In other words, they'll actually pay 250% what the state takes just to make sure they're not breaking the law. And while the state doesn't take that extra cash directly, make no mistake, that's still very much a tax.
$1.3 billion just ballooned to $2.2 billion. The tax hike that keeps on taking.
By the by, that first paragraph, claiming that business groups support a full replacement? They'd much rather not have it replaced, believe me. As Jared Rodriguez from the Grand Rapids Chamber told MIRS earlier this week, they're just hoping that they can get the Democrats to point the gun at their foot, not their head.
Of course all of this compromise talk is misleading. The GOP controlled Senate isn't just dealing with Andy Dillon who's angling for full replacement. Jennifer Granholm is actually trying to negotiate an increase in the MBT rate that would bring in MORE than the $613 million they're looking to replace.
Because 7.7% unemployment and 43,000 jobs lost last month alone aren't devastating enough.
Don't look now, but Thompson's in third in SC. Maybe the NRTL endorsement will help, but right now it's Romney and Giuliani.
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I think Romney or Huckabee will win Iowa, then Romney or Giuliani will win New Hampshire (depending on the result in Iowa), then whoever won Iowa will win South Carolina as well. Thompson will be 4th in Iowa, 6th in New Hampshire, then 5th in South Carolina. After that, he will bow out and endorse Romney or Huckabee (whoever won Iowa). As for Michigan, if there is a primary, Romney or Giuliani will take it. Whoever won New Hampshire will also take Michigan, except if Huckabee did well in Iowa, he'll come close in Michigan too, but not win it. That's just my two cents.
I don't think Huck will get it. Fred is a federalism guy, and Huck is clearly not going with the federalism thing.
I think that Thompson might go with Rudy - who has been trying to play the federalism angle on social issues to temper his personal positions. Given Rudy's strengths on the security issue and on many fiscal issues, I don't think it would take all that much for Thompson to pick Rudy's brand of federalism and strong security policy over the populist statism being pushed by Huckabee.
Ummm, Michigan has been docked (as has every "early" state except IA). And given the way Michigan delegates are distributed, even a Rudy win in a MI primary would not give him the delegate lead going into FL. It would certainly give him some momentum and media attention. But in terms of convention math, the eggs for Rudy are in the Feb. 5th basket and pulling down NY, NJ, and large chunks in CA and IL to take the delegate lead.
still very low with regard to name recognition, he's really just started to try and ramp up his campaign. I for one support him because he is a Conservative. He's doing a major fund raising push now. I think Huckabee's numbers may come down a little once his position on illegal immigration comes more to light. I'm still not convinced Thompson really wants to be President - his time like McCain's may have passed by without him noticing it.
While Thompson slides where does his support go? That is the question of the campaign right now.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
-H. L. Mencken
IMHO. While many supports will split off to various candidates, the majority will shift the following.
McCain supporters to Rudy
Thompson supporters to Romney
Huckabee supporters to Romney
We have already seen some of this in Iowa.
Assuming that Romney wins Iowa and NH, he will go on to win SC and likely MI. The MO will be on his side. He may very well also take Florida. But come Feb 5th, Rudy will catch up. At that time, it will be sprint to the end. Rudy may very well be ahead in delegate counts but down in number of states. So each side will spin it their own way. I doubt very seriously that either will be knocked out for quite a while, and it may very well be the later states that decide the nominee. It would be hilarious that after all of the jockeying for position, it was the later states that end up being important.
Man, Giuliani really needs this primary to take place. It's looking more and more like Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire and Thompson will win South Carolina. (assuming Romney's mo doesn't give him a victory there too). If Giuliani could win Michigan, then he'd go from losing every contest before Florida to having the most delegates!