Mason-Dixon: Conrad Burns and John Tester Tied at 47% for Montana Senate
By Shiner Posted in 2006 | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
UPDATE by Leon: Reuters/Zogby, for whatever it's worth, Has it 47-46 for Tester. All the momentum here is with Burns, and the on-the-ground advantage for Republicans in Montana spells bad news for Tester.
From the Billings Gazette:
A telephone poll of 625 registered and likely Montana voters shows each man favored by 47 percent of respondents. Five percent of the voters are undecided, while Libertar-ian Stan Jones was the pick of 1 percent.
The poll was taken from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C, for the Gazette State Bureau. It has a margin of error of plus- or minus-4 percentage points.
That's a swing from the last survey, but it follows the pattern. Burns has been closing the gap in every poll that Mason-Dixon has run in Montana. Another important part of the article:
As expected, Burns and Tester racked up big leads with members of their respective parties. Among Republicans, Burns leads Tester 89 percent to 6 percent, while Tester enjoys an 88 percent to 8 percent lead among Democrats.
However, among those identifying themselves as independent voters, Tester's 52 percent favorable rating tops Burns' 37 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 3 percent for Jones.
There are a lot more Republicans than Democrats in Montana--and self-identified party members are much more likely to vote in midterm elections than independents. If the party support is even, then that is an advantage to Burns.
Mason-Dixon has proved to be accurate at the state level. If this is right, the Democrats could be in for a surprise on Tuesday night.
From Hotline:
Over the past two days, Gov. Brian Schweitzer has convened conference calls with several groups of Democrats, including a handful of prominent liberal bloggers. His message is that Jon Tester's (D) margin over Conrad Burns (R) has shrunk to about five points in internal Democratic tracking, and that if Tester isn't ahead of Burns by three points on election day, the state's natural conservative swing could shove Tester off the precipice of victory. Democratic donors have also been asked to contribute. Democrats worry about the GOP's formidable 72 Hour Program in the state, long touted as one of the country's most proficient. Republicans say they've averaging about 17,000 telephone calls and in-person contacts with voters.
Mason/Dixon is a solid company. I even hate to go against their polling in MD, which has Cardin ahead. The only reason I do is the insistence of people on the inside that Steele is pulling ahead. The fact is, if Mason/Dixon has Conrad tied, then I think Tester might as well pack it in. Methinks Bush has energized the Base and the entire 72 Hour protocol is starting to kick in nationwide, especially in critical base states like MT.
It's not like we can lean back and expect "Joementum" to carry us through. That's not the way it works. But the Dhimmis thought they had this in the bag, and now they're having to make panic calls, as Shiner pointed out above.
Dhimmis have nothing like the 72 Hour Plan. We'll see the results of all this hard work on November 7th.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
In his own "72 Hour Plan" - which is actually more like a 144 hour plan. He learned from 2000, when he coasted at the end and it (along with the DUI "Late Hit") nearly cost him the Presidency.
He has been heroic in this effort to keep the House and Senate, and with them a sane policy on GWOT. Every minute counts between now and Tuesday night - and we all have to do our part. President Bush is doing his.
The wise man learns from his mistakes...the fool continues to make the same ones over and over.
I remember at the time thinking disgustedly that it almost seemed as though "candidate" Bush was not serious in that final week about winning the presidency. It seemed to me, especially concerning the DUI issue, that it could have been put to bet months earlier with a few words on the candidates part and a mea culpa...VIOLA! No surprise! At the end, it seemed like he simply ran out of energy!
Since that election cycle, and as the stakes have increased with the 911 attack and the GWoT, he has not made the same mistake again!
....in '00.
He coasted earlier that year, too. You might remember the weekend before the New Hampshire primary, he spent more time tobogganing than politicking.
He predicted a 5 point win, and, well....we know what happened.
Good to see him out on the stump, kicking Dem a**.
only because of judicial appointments. I realize there are actually more conservatives in the house but I at this point in Bush's presidency judicial appointments are the most important thing. Most of the other legilstaion has already been passed. I am keeping my fingers crossed for 52 senate seats, and witht eh help of southern democrats we should be able to fill any vacancies that may open up.
in MT and other senate race states-he keeps pointing out that it is because of a GOP controlled senate we have Roberts and Alito on the SCOTUS bench. I think this point rings very true with a lot of red state voters.
I remember being frustrated a while back with something Bush did, and was asked if I regreted my vote, and I recall answering "nope Roberts and Alito on the bench will always make that vote worth it."
It is very likely at least one more SCOTUS judge will leave the next couple of years, and I don't want the dems in controll of the judicial committee-because anyone even remotely conservative will be declared extreme.
Montana is a strongly Republican-tilted state in federal elections and each poll has shown Tester slipping and Burns gaining. I'm really praying that Conrad Burns comes back, using his incumbency and his Republican-ness to win.
I have voted - have you?
This is the final nail in the coffin of the Dems.
GET OUT AND VOTE.. Get your friends out to vote.
Here wave!
Here wave!
Whistle....
Here wave!
That darn wave! where did it run off to?
Anyone see a Huge Democratic wave around here?
Here wave!
Here wave!
Whistle....
Use one of those racist whistles. That ought to bring a Democratic wave.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
"Every time some nitwit college student burns a flag on camera, that's one less idiot who can ever run for public office." - Crank
Just win the race! As the saying goes:"The race is not given to the swift, but the one(s) who endures."
America is depending on the people of Montana to make a clear choice concerning our future as a country.
So if we want things to be easy and everybody to like us , while giving up America please do one of the following:
stay home
vote for the Democrate
vote for third party candiate (unless it's Liberman, ect.)
-lbjgal
Dubya and Cheney need to make a joint appearance with Burns on election day to put this one away.
in the end is going to kick Testers ass! Just watch, in the end he will take it no problem .
dwightE0070
burns gas got to go...guys like this hurt republican cause more than help ...why don't you guys just elect jack abrahamoff....
Either you've barely had any education in the written form of the English language, or you're a graduate of Democrat union-run public schools.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
___________________________________________________________
Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
More polls showing Tester ahead.
http://www.usatoday.com//news/polls/tables/live/2006-11-05-state-polls.h...
Well, at least he is a good, solid guy. Moreover, as a strong believer that absolute power corrupts absolutely, I am glad to see strong checks and balances on intrusive executive power. Who knows, maybe the democrats will get the U.S. out of the business of nation-building overseas and curtail hand-over-fist government spending. Funny that the democrats would become the party of smaller, more efficient government.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
As someone who has spent the last 6 months or so petitioning across Montana for the Property Rights initiative, and with a "Burns Delivers for Montana" bumper sticker on my '98 chevy pick-up, I am exceedingly happy about this development.
Firstly, the pundits, even liberal punds, have said that if Conrad is within 3 points of Tester right before the election, he wins.
Vallah! That's where we are at this morning.
Also, notice Libertarian Stan Jones's numbers have dropped from a high of 5 points at one point down to just 1. Libertarians are coming home to the GOP. Even my sometimes kooky Libertarian bretheren apparently are realizing the importance of keeping leftist Tester out of there. The key to winning this Libertarian constituency back to Burns?
Taxes of course.
I expect that Libertarian vote to now stick at 1%, maybe even drop further to .5%. That means Burns wins.
I give Bush a lot of credit here. Apparently his big Western-style shindig for Conrad this week paid off.
To quote Oklahoma: "Oh, what a wonderful feeling, oh what a wonderful day... everything is going our way."
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com