The Difference Between Daily Kos and Red State (hint: Not favorable to Red State)
By singaporesling Posted in Elections — Comments (57) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In 2004 when Bill Janklow resigned his seat as the South Dakota at large rep, the Left Net (most especially at Daily Kos)worked very, very hard to get Stephanie Herseth elected.
This despite the fact that South Dakota is an overwhelmingly Republican state.
What is Red State doing to support a GOP candidate in the Marty Mehan seat?
Almost nothing....instead we get post after post about the Iraq War, Media Bias, etc etc etc.
This is why the Left Netroots are killing us. They actually mobilize and work to get their candidates elected. Whereas on most Conservative sites, all you get is the same-o same-o.
Where is our candidate for Marty Mehan's seat? Deval Patrick is ext. unpopular and the Mass GOP could start to rebuild by chalking up a win.
The Dems and Left Netroots have no fear of supporting (quite strongly) candidates in the reddest of seats.
We need to contest this special election.
We at Red State need to get involved in recruiting, funding, mobilizing, and winning this seat.
the left netroots with the Democratic Party's recent sucess. In the first case, we've only lost one election. in the second, they could hardly have lost in 2006. In the third, the lefty netroots always push for candidates that are virtually unelectable (Howard Dean, Harold Ford, etc.). So no, I'm not ready to shake in my boots at the mention of Dailykos.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
They're still catching up with the techniques Norquist, Mehlman et al perfected. The perfect storm of Iraq, Katrina, Foley and so forth swamped us in 06 (as did shameful GOP spending--which undermined our main advantage over the Dems), but the electoral machinery our party perfected over the last decade is way more sophisticated than DKos and MoveOn.
That said, it makes sense to move from rapid response, which the conservative netroots have done magnificently (Rathergate, anyone?) to targeted fundraising and mobilizing. And quite frankly, it's easier to generate that kind of activism when you're in the minority.
What was Webb, what was Tester, and what was Sestak? These were strong netroots candidates, and if you notice, they aren't exactly lefties.
Step 1: What congressional district is Marty Mehan from. I want to look it up, and being in South Dakota, I am not sure, but I have family back in Mass.
We need to get that information out there.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
He is from the Massachusettes 5th Congressional District.
Give a minute and I will add the map of the district here.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
Here is a map of Marty Mehan's congressional district and the towns it covers.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
Does anyone here know any Republican Party people from the state of Massachusetts?
Do we even know if they are going to try and field a candidate?
Or, are they going to just sleep through this one like they have done before?
Since I have grown up there, I know that there are some districts that they won't even run candidates because the chances are so low of them winning, it would be like trying to BBQ a snow ball and hoping there is some left for diner. Because of that, the Democrat Party just appoints candidates in those districts and no one runs against them. Is this going to be one of those elections? Or, will anyone try?
"TRY" is the operative word here.
We need to be able to have someone who knows the party people up there to know want is in the works.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
I really hope that I am not just talking to myself here.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
It's 9:45. Most people are doing work right now -- they haven't begun to read and comment while pretending to work yet.
:)
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We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
I start my day at 4:30 AM, and I am starting my second pot of coffee by 8AM. I get on a roll as I am working and I forget that simple fact.
Consider me slowed down. LOL - Thanks.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
What are the requirements to run there... Do you have to reside in that district or even MA to begin with? :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
While I'll be the first to say that how a conservative Republican ran in a given district is not dispositive of how a moderate or liberal Republican could do in that district, it is at least suggestive.
docj is a Republican Party guy in the People's Republic, though as I understant it, at the County, not at the State, level.
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We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
My family lives much further to the west of this district and they are Democrats. I am the heritic of the family. However, I do believe there is a residency requirement. I'd have to look it up on line.
The central thing is boots on the ground there. If Docj is from that area, we need to get his perspective on this.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
it sounds like it is possible to win for a moderate/liberal republican.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
What percentage of that 63% would eat the Fires of Hell before pulling the lever for a Republican? What percentage of the 37% would sit out, rather that just put what they'd perceive as a Democrat with an R after her name, in that spot?
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We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
That is what we need to know, and the only way of finding out is by talking to the Republicans in that state.
Also, another factor, in Massachusetts, the "Right Wing Extremist" label is death to a candidate. Would our help deliver the glue to stick that label to a candidate?
Another reason why it is important to talk to the Republicans there first.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
The mainstream press does that without our help. I wouldn't worry about our money and attention HURTING the candidate.
Run like Reagan!
It's my understanding that MA-03 is the 2nd most R district in MA... of course, that's not saying much. But if the MA GOP wants to try, this is the type of special election where they should do so. And the original poster is very right in his assessment.
I have tried to do some poll following on races, but RS (editors and diarists) needs to do better at recruiting, following campaigns, and getting inside the actual electoral process.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
MA-10 (Delahunt) would be the most win-able district for the GOP. It contains the most towns carried by Healey in 2006, contains most of the popluation centers of the most "Republican" county in MA (Plymouth) and has only one large city (though it's a big one - Quincy).
But really, with the execption of MA-1 (Olver - western MA, may as well be Cuba) and MA-8 (Capuano - Boston, need I say more) all these districts are all just slightly lighter or darker shades of "deep blue".
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
First, I said MA-03... I meant MA-05.
Second, Bush won 41% to Kerry's 57% in MA-05 according to cqpolitics.
Third, here are all the MA districts 2004 results (Bush-Kerry):
01: 35-63
02: 40-59
03: 40-59
04: 34-65
05: 41-57
06: 41-58
07: 33-66
08: 16-82
09: 38-61
10: 43-56
So, just off of the 2004 results, it seems the R competitiveness goes 10, 06, 05, 03, 02. And all of those are worth competing in. If Bush can win 40% in a district, then a moderate R should be able to get at least 45% and be within striking distance.
It would help to have more data on how Romney did in each district to find where moderate Rs do well rather than just the Bush-Kerry numbers. But this should help in putting MA districts into perspective. They are well gerrymandered to make a 65-35 state into a 10-0 D representation.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
I talked about this a little bit recently. MA-5 is about as competative as any CD in Massachusetts - but that is frankly not saying much seeing as how Massachusetts ain't exactly a target rich environment (see my comment responding to Crank in my referenced thread).
Still, it's not out of the question that a republican could make a splash here. Coupe Deval (the Cadillac of Governors) is absolutely cratering and is in the process of consuming himself with a semi-major kerfuffle over an recent ICE raid at a New Bedford sweatshop that netted some 300+ illegals.
FWIW, and recognizing that I live on the opposite side of Boston, here's what I can tell you about the district and it's challenges - it has a couple of large, heavily Democrat urban areas (Lawrence, Haverhill, Lowell - though Romney did very well in Lowell in 2002), a cluster of liberal "Beautiful People" towns (Wayland, Sudbudy, Maynard, Concord) but also a fair number of towns that Kerry Healey carried in 2006 over Coupe Deval (Dunstable, Tyngsborough, Dracut, Tewksbury, Billerica, Chelmsford).
Romney got 55% of the vote from this CD in 2002.
Bush's 37% in MA-5 in 2004 was, I believe, a modest improvement over his 2000 performance in that district - in spite of the fact that Jean Francois was on the top of the ballot.
It's been reported that there are a couple of quality Republicans (Michael J. Sullivan, Mayor of very-Democrat Lawrence and Charles McCarthy, who lost to Meehan in 2002 and should have good name-ID in the district) very interested in this seat - and the Democrat primary is likely to be very, very messy. Also - never forget that special elections == low turnout.
I don't have much more than that at the moment. Like I said, it's on the other side of Boston from me and I don't make it up there much. Hope this helps.
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
If one of these guys are going to run for this seat, we need to contact them and find out how we can help. If more than one is going to try, and there is a Republican primary, we need to see who is more electable, but is not a Linc Chaffee. Or, at least find out stuff to that effect, and be helpful to who it is more prudent to help. Or, decide if we will let the primary take it's course and support the winner.
Well, this is a start.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
I recommend this approach:
(L)et the primary take it's course and support the winner.
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
There is a very famous Republican who is a favorite son in this district: Former Massachusetts Governor A. Paul Cellucci of Hudson, MA.
Seems to me that Gov. Cellucci might have a though or two on this topic...
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
Is there any chance that he might run?
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Celluch in the race would make it veeeeeeeeeery interesting - especially given that there really isn't any "marquee" name in the race on the Dem side at the moment.
Perhaps the former-Gov's good buddy (that would be Dubya) could, dare I say, press a point here? Yeah, I don't think tha'll happen, either.
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
I had wondered about Cellucci running against Kerry in 2008, but my understanding is that he is off making money. Even if you could get him back to politics in 2008 for a Senate seat, a 2007 special House election seems a tougher sell.
My gut tells me, without knowing more, that the guy to run is the 2-term Mayor of Lawrence, a Rust Belt type old industrial town where the main industry, at least when I lived in Mass. in the early 90s, was auto insurance fraud.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Celluch might have been enticed back into politics for an open 2008 Senate seat, but I think it's a long-shot at best even that would be enough. Why in heaven's name would he leave his cushy job in Ottowa for a seat he would have to work his butt off to get, and then do it all again for an uphill battle to retain in a presidential election year 14-months later? Upon further review, I just don't see it happening.
And without knowing anything at all about the principal players, I suspect Lawrence Mayor Sullivan is probably the best bet for a realistic shot at this seat. He's demonstrated he can win (twice!) in a Democrat city (Patrick +44 in 2006) and at a minimum should cause the eventual Democrat nominee to have to fight on turf that should otherwise be a given for Dems.
My only qualifier, is that auto insurance fraud is still a booming business, particularly in Lawrence - in fact, it's "employing" more than a few folks who are defrauding the insurance companies Americans don't want to defraud, if you know what I mean.
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
Is what brought me here, I'm glad that there are others who have noticed things are amiss...
I wish this project luck ....
luck = in this case, an objective with a plan to achieve success
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
"Screw 'em" Kos and his sidekick Vis Numar want to take over the Democratic party by replacing its traditional establishment with themselves and their army.
We don't harbor such fantasies of ripping apart the Republican party. Well, most of us don't. We've only gone as far as to say that direct donations and the Internet should render obsolete aggregators like the NRSC.
So I don't see the problem with waiting for a candidate to come here and post a diary before expecting many of us to pile on.
Run like Reagan!
That is why I think it is important to talk to the Republican Party there in Mass. We should not fight with, or upset what they are doing. We need to find out what they are doing there, and be helpful and beneficial to their efforts.
The Kos Crowd is a go it alone with the cleansed and anointed candidate. We don't, and should not ever, think of doing such a thing.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
Herseth hails from one of South Dakota's only famous Democratic families, and she campaigns as just the sweetest little thang. Both are major factors in her success. If Bill Weld's daughter resides in the Fifth, she might have a shot.
But you've hit upon a major problem. One of the closest races where Republicans could have picked up a seat last year was actually in Vermont of all places. Yet I saw fairly little written on her last year.
For all their many, many faults, Kossacks are actually willing to accept a significant amount of ideological diversity in their caucus to win these types of districts. This is actually one of Kos's main points. Stephanie Herseth has a lifetime ACU of 49. That's in the range of Arlen Specter's rating, but they would never dream of primary-ing Herseth with someone from the far left of the party.
Sure they primaried Lieberman in blue Connecticut, but they wisely let the Nelsons (lifetime ACU 53 (NE) and 41 (FL)) of the world have a pass. If a Republican is going to win this seat, he or she is going to have to be a fairly liberal Republican. There is simply no way that a pro-lifer or a candidate who isn't pro-civil-unions at least is going to win a federal election here. And he or she will probably have to be a Christie Whitman wishy-washy personality overall. But are we really going to tolerate them, or are we going to have a Club For Growth candidate challenging them after their first term? That's a major problem, and something we have to come to terms with up front before we start winning these seats.
Just so it doesn't go unnoticed, I wanted to re-iterate that former Massachusetts Governor and Ambassador to Canada A. Paul Cellucci is a native and favorite son in this district.
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I grew up in Massachusetts. A quick hello to "NotSoBlueStater" and "docj", and anyone else I was not aware of. I grew up just south of Worcester. I heard that they built a new Super Walmart on the route 146 exit to my town. I guess we are getting up in the world finally.
I have found that with people like Gov. Weld and Gov. Romney in Massachusetts, they are willing to accept, and almost prefer a fiscal conservative, to keep the spending in check. I remember the prop 2 and a 1/2 tax revolt. The taxes are high there already, and they don't want them going any higher than they need to be. The last time I was home my Dad was telling me, and he is a die hard Democrat, this is a sound understanding.
The electorate won't accept a social conservative though. Notice this is the part that is haunting Romney now?
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
Cellucci has been a great public servant. Plus he, like me, is a Rudy Guiliani sort of guy (he recently announced his support for Rudy over Romney).
I'd be interested in exploring a little "Draft Argeo" (his first name) movement. Do former governors ever become congressmen? Seems like it might be a step down...
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
A few governors have become congressmen, but usually only as a stepping stone to the senate. Usually, they go strait for the senate seats, unless there is an entrenched senator of their party. Then they run for Congress until a shot comes open for the Senate seat.
It has been done. We had Gov Janklow go from governor to congressman here in South Dakota, but I don't need to rehash how he screwed that up. He is out of jail now, and we don't hear about him anymore.
You can thank him for Stephanie Herseth in congress. He beat her when he ran against her, then she was a shoe in for the special election to replace him.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
First, see this article from the Globe about some of the likely contenders.
I'm going to get in touch with my state rep., one of the few R's in the statehouse and see if I can talk with him about it.
I will report back what I learn in the next few days.
The list of Democrats include Niki Tsongas, wife of the late US senator Paul Tsongas; state Representative Barry R. Finegold of Andover; Eileen Donoghue, the former Lowell mayor and current city councilor; state Representative James B. Eldridge of Acton; and Stephen Kerrigan, a former aide to Senator Edward M. Kennedy and to Attorney General Thomas Reilly.
Two Democrat have already dropped out of the race. State Senator Steven Baddour of Methuen held a press conference Monday to announce he was not running for the seat. "In the end, I realized that while any one can be a Congressman, I am the only one who can be a father to my two daughters, Isabella and Victoria," Baddour said in a statement, according to State House News Service. State Senator Susan C. Tucker of North Andover removed her name from consideration last week.
On the Republican side, potential contenders include Michael Sullivan, mayor of Lawrence; Charles McCarthy, Meehan's 2002 challenger; and Donna Cuomo, a former state representative from North Andover.
I'm not familiar with this district, having lived in the People's Commonwealth for just over a year. But I will do some homework over the weekend. ;)
Every set of bedroom communities in Massachusetts (which can easily swing majority Republican at times) is gerrymandered together with an urban area so that no particular congressional district can go Republican -- at least not very easily.
There are maps here, but the site seems a little cranky at the moment.
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
Ever since I've moved here I've had the feeling that something else must be going on to keep the state so overwhelmingly Blue besides just the population and their party affiliation -- because there are a surprising number of Rs here.
They find it very difficult to win elections for some strange reason, however. I know it isn't because the Democrats are so much better at running the place or keeping taxes down and so on and so on...
The worst part about it is that this internal bias really makes the state complacent -- starting at the very top. Deval Patrick is now widely disparaged in a bipartisan way, but he was the Anointed One. Another one of Bill Clinton's gifts to the world.
So the KOS model is to push some extreme candidate for office, see the Joe Liberman and Ned Lamonte race for an example.
What would a "perfect" RS candidate look like, and would he/she be a real contender or the product of a screening and litmus test based on what, the posters here on RS? How about a round of Political Idol, you can name your own favorite moderator for the role of Simon...Oh my! LOL
You might even see a **gasp** RINO running up there, after all the NE is not exactly a real stronghold of social conservative values now is it.
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Dennis Miller for President...no more wimps!
It would help if you read what has been posted. Nobody in this thread is advocating what KOS does. What is being discussed is how we can be more involved and helpful within the existing party structure.
Please go back and reread the posts.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
Kos must be doing something right though. He helped get two Senators (one was a weirdo pervert) and a bunch of congressmen elected, right? There's gotta be something to that.
The GOP has overwhelming support from the business sector known as "big business". Democratic policies are not appealing to big business. This is why netroot support is probably necessary for Democratic candidates to catch up with Republicans
or if you really believe that, but big corporations FYI, give plenty of money to Democrats. Wanna know something else? a lot of big business likes regulation,
Why? because they can better absorb the cost than upstart competitors. Remember what Adam Smith said, no business has anything to do with the government unless it is a way to gain advantage over competitors.
BTW, did you know that most of the wealthiest political gift givers were all liberals? Like the Google guys, George Soros, and the gay guy who is taking over Colorado, (forgot his name).
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Check out the FEC donor lists and you will discover that you just restated an old democrat lie.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Bill Clinton ,Tyson Chicken , and Wal-Mart and this guy Mortimer Lincoln thinks that the democrats don't have big business backers.
see surveyusa.com for the 60+ approval
We might be able to take the district, but not by beating up on Patrick.
I know he's done some idiot things since just about the second he was inaugurated, but c'mon, he's a Dem and this is Massachusetts. I've been seeing a lot of "Patrick tanking" stuff here lately, and it's a little overblown. S-USA has him at 63-25 approval on 2/20. The man is a snake and can talk his way out of anything (think: Obama). The way to victory is not through Patrick.
Try this one. Hot off the press. And local.
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So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?
I've harped. I've cajoled. Last January, I worked for a couple of weeks to develop a really sharp template proposal for a Conservative-based netroots program, then tailored it to the needs of some GOP candidates. I had it looked over by some of my more campaign-savvy associates, then tweaked it and pitched it.
What happened?
*insert sound of crickets chirping here*
They'll still buy my targeting stuff and use my input on communications, but this idea was a non-starter.
I sensed a strong aversion on the part of the GOP apparatus to engage any people-intensive tool over which it cannot exercise complete control. The thought of adding a netroots coordination section to a GOP campaign plan scares some of these people in a herding-cats sort of way. Maybe right now that isn't an unreasonable position to take. I'm pretty sure that the conventional wisdom is to keep at arm's length any help in the form of group action like what might come from a place like RedState, at least for the time being.
But for the long-term I doubt the GOP can shun coming up with its own ways to use this new medium's people resources to its advantage.
Better be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident security. --Edmund Burke
My Newest Blog: Global Tepiding?
That is the fly in the ointment.
Most of the party officials have an aversion to new media and the internet. Look at our illustrious minority leader in the house. In an interview I listened too after the Novemeber elections, when they were getting ready to elect new leadership in the house, he openly and confidently admitted he gets all his news from news papers and didn't read any blogs. He also couldn't name any books about islam or terrorism he has read reciently either, but I will give him that he is busy already I am sure.
However, that should tell you something about what is going on in Washington with the echo chamber effect, and Republican leadership.
Wubbies World - The odds of hitting your target go up dramatically when you actually aim for it!
When the hard-headed, ignorant and echo-chamber-influenced GOP intelligentsia finally comes around on the importance of new media people resources, it will probably be in reaction to some favorite son getting his clock cleaned in a primary.
And maybe that's were our focus should be: Knocking off a couple establishment-blessed open-seat Congressional candidates by supplying some serious netricity to un-anointed underdog challengers.
Better be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident security. --Edmund Burke
My Newest Blog: Global Tepiding?
And Amen.
Can we get some posts and updates and links from people more involved?