SC: Huckabee's single-issue voters only temporarily killed the conservative coalition
By SmallGovt Posted in 2008 — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
If conservatives can't win SC, where can they win? Is the party moving left? I don't think so. Instead, I think it was just a bad combination in 2008.
Until I see data that shows otherwise, I'm not convinced that Huckabee got many votes for his populist message. (Some, but not enough to really matter.) Instead, evangelical voters have felt taken for granted in the past -- so they rushed to embrace one of their own. If Huckabee would have reached out to the rest of the coalition, he'd be the clear favorite. Instead, he ran hard AGAINST other portions of the conservative base: fiscal ("club for greed"), defense ("arrogant foreign policy"), and immigration (in-state tuition for illegals).
Imagine an alternate scenario where Huckabee never entered the race. Surely much of his support would have gone to the other Southern candidate, with 100% pro-life voting record and National Right to Life endorsement.
In this case, Fred's bus tour across Iowa yields first or a strong second (depending on how evangelicals break for Romney vs. Fred). The MSM (and various other doubters) have to take Fred seriously (vs. the silly "he's just in it for McCain" nonsense). That plus a stronger showing yields more money, which in turn gets a first in SC and a sweep of the South.
Lesson: the Reagan coalition is NOT dead -- but it depends on each element accepting the other.
Fred Thompson was only in the race to take votes away from Mike Huckabee.
Please. Get a grip. Fred Thompson IS in the race because he believes he CAN do the job. Frankly, I suspect he's taking very, very few votes from Huckabee. Those who support Thompson support him because of his conservative policy positions - those which are NOT held by Huckabee, with the exception of the pro-life stance. Thus, Thompson supporters would be highly reluctant to move to Huckabee, unless he was the nominee, and even then - I've seen many here who consider Huckabee to be the one guy they would never vote for. I'd expect most to transfer their support to Romney or McCain.
You also seem to have some sort of conspiracy theory going on - "The establishment" is out there trying to take down Huckabee, eh? No, conservatives are trying to stop Mike Huckabee so we don't wind up with a big-government socialist in office. Your comment regarding "big money and greed" are right up there with Huckabee's identity politics.
And I hope they take the big business wing...
Moby much?
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Fred Thompson was only in the race to take votes away from Mike Huckabee.
Fred Thompson had no chance of winning and everyone knew it.
You see there is a split.
The establishment wants to stop Mike Huckabee at all cost because they have been focused ever since 2006 on getting rid of social conservative issues in favor of big money and greed.
The social conservatives cannot back down because to do so would make it certain that matters of deeply rooted conviction no longer matter in politics, and the only cannidate they have that truly supports their convictions strongly and consistently is Mike Huckabee.
One side cannot back down because of deeply rooted convictions which they will not comprimise because to do so would mean it no longer matters. The other side will not back down because of greed and because of bullheadedness.
So in 2008 the democrats are going to win.
And I hope they take the big business wing of the Republican party and pick their pockets dry with massive tax increases for the rich. Serves them right.