Redstate

By Spiral Posted in 2008 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

We are all looking at the latest state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in addition to national polls, trying to determine who is best positioned to win the 2008 Republican nomination. But sometimes the best way to predict the future is by looking at the past.

Certainly the times are different and the candidates are different. But we have nothing to lose by looking back, for a moment, at the 1996 and 2000 Republican primary contests.

I don't have numbers from the caucus states, only from the primaries. For now, I will cover the early states and also states with large populations. Presumably states with large populations will send large numbers of delegates to the Republican convention next year. Source: The Almanac of American Politics, editions 1998 and 2002

New Hampshire - 1996
Buchanan 27, Dole 26, Alexander 23, Forbes 12, Lugar 5, Other 8.

New Hampshire - 2000
McCain 49, Bush 30, Forbes 13, Keyes 6, Other 2.

South Carolina - 1996
Dole 45, Buchanan 29, Forbes 13, Alexander 10, Other 3.

South Carolina - 2000
Bush 53, McCain 42, Keyes 5.

Michigan - 1996
Dole 51, Buchanan 34, Forbes 5, Other 11.

Michigan - 2000
McCain 51, Bush 43, Keyes 5.

Florida - 1996
Dole 57, Forbes 20, Buchanan 18, Other 6.

Florida - 2000
Bush 74, McCain 20, Keyes 5.

California - 1996
Dole 66, Buchanan 18, Forbes 7, Keyes 4, Other 5.

California - 2000
Bush 52, McCain 43, Keyes 4.

Texas - 1996
Dole 56, Buchanan 21, Forbes 13, Other 10.

Texas - 2000
Bush 88, McCain 7, Keyes 4, Other 2.

New York - 1996
Dole 55, Forbes 30, Buchanan 15.

New York - 2000
Bush 51, McCain 43, Keyes 3, Forbes 2.

Ohio - 1996
Dole 66, Buchanan 22, Forbes 6, Other 6.

Ohio - 2000
Bush 58, McCain 37, Keyes 4.

Illinois - 1996
Dole 65, Buchanan 23, Forbes 5, Keyes 4, Other 4.

Illinois - 2000
Bush 67, McCain 22, Keyes 9, Other 2.

Pennsylvania - 1996
Dole 64, Buchanan 18, Forbes 8, Keyes 6, Lugar 5.

Pennsylvania - 2000
Bush 74, McCain 23, Other 4.

Georgia - 1996
Dole 41, Buchanan 29, Alexander 14, Forbes 13, Other 4.

Georgia - 2000
Bush 67, McCain 28, Keyes 5.

What jumps out at me looking at the 1996 results is that social moderates like Lamar Alexander and Steve Forbes (Forbes was socially moderate in 1996 and adopted more socially conservative positions in his 2000 run) did better than I would have expected. In some states, their combined vote is well over 20 percent.

Also, even though Bob Dole was a long time inside-the-belway type with a record of deal making, which alienated many conservatives, he did remarkably well against a purist candidates like Pat Buchanan. Does this mean that Fred Thompson and John McCain, having spent time in Washington DC, aren't at as big a disadvantage as we tend to assume?

Let's here your views on this. Based on what you see above, who is going to have an uphill battle for the nomination? What do these results say about the Republican primary electorate? Is it possible for a candidate to win the nomination by appealing to only economic conservatives or only social conservatives? Or is appealing to both economic and social conservatives the only path to victory?