Fred Thompson: Not Out By A Long Shot!
By Steve Foley Posted in 2008 — Comments (38) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Anyone whose been paying attention to the news of late has seen what may be construed as a disturbing slide downward in the polls for Fred Thompson and although this is true for Iowa and New Hampshire it’s not the end of the road. In fact, it may not be of much consequence in the big picture at all.
Many people are of the mistaken impression that whoever wins the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries are preordained the nomination. Not so! With this election cycle being frontloaded like it is, it’s a whole new ballgame!
Read On...
By the way Ronald Reagan didn’t take the Iowa and others have lost both the Iowa and the New Hampshire primaries and gone on to win the nomination.
So to all the soothsayers who are trying to divine the ever-shifting winds of presidential politics and see Fred Thompson’s position, behind in both states, as some kind of bad omen... I say - phooey!
Once we get passed the first round of primaries guess where we go to next? That’s right, “The South” A whole new group of southern states and Thompson is performing extremely well in most if not all of them! With the exception of Arkansas, that should be a lock for Huckabee. Fred is in good shape.
Sates where Thompson is ahead:
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
Tennessee
Texas
Oklahoma
He’s in a dead-heat in South Carolina but expected to do very well. Also Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana have warmed to Fred’s down-hominess and laid back style. All four should be a check in the win column for Thompson. Oh Yeah, almost forgot Fred is also doing well in Maine and could get a win there of all places!
Florida is up in the air but after taking most of the other southern states Fred has just as good a chance winning there as any of the other top-tier candidates and Huckabee with only Arkansas in his pocket will be hard pressed to pull out a win there.
Of course this being politics, things can change at a drop of a hat, but the second round of primaries will focus on conservative values and principles. The folks are going to want someone that shares their principles and values and not just pick the one they precieve to be a “nice guy” This is where we separate the Republicans in name only and the conservatives that have Ideas that move this country forward and those who tell you what you want to hear then govern like the status quo. In other words, run like Reagan then govern like Carter!
Don’t be disillusioned by the press and the other candidates spin, they have all been afraid of Fred Thompson since the beginning and for good reason – He’s far and away the best candidate for the job!
... and I wasn't comparing the two men.
as to this:
he is a regional candidate now and as he is not even the strongest candidate from that region he really has no 'slot' in the race.
Of course your welcome to your opinion. As uniformed and off base as I might think it is!
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
I know you were not comparing Fred and Reagan, but a lot of people were when he first made moves to enter the race. As far as I can see the only things they had in common were working as actors and being divorced.
I can't honestly think of anyone in the past 30 years who has won the nomination without winning Iowa or NH, but could believe it would happen this time. But to Rudy, not Fred.
...I'm frankly growing a bit tired of all the imortance being placed on Iowa and NH... this is a new ballgame and the old yardsticks just don't apply anymore. IMHO.
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
...two blue/purple states determining who the Republican nominee is? Seems silly to me, especially since a caucus isn't a primary. Iowa is totally meaningless aside from the gained media attention. Hence why second place is almost better. New Hampshire? Just another place for a RINO to get some attention, same for Michigan.
In case no one noticed, the dems aren't exactly putting up moderates themselves, so why should we?
"As far as I can see the only things they had in common were working as actors and being divorced."
Fred Thompson has much more in comnmon with Ronald Reagan than you can see.
Like Reagan, who did a regular radio commentary program, Fred Thompson did the same thing as first a backup for Paul Harvey, then in his own right for ABC Radio.
Like Reagan, when Fred is asked a question, he doesn't respond with a poll-tested answer in the manner of some of his opponents. His reply comes from conviction.
Like Reagan, Thompson's not lusting after the job of president. He wants to make a better country and a better world.
Like Reagan, FDT has been charged with being "lazy" by Leftists, the drive-by media, pundits and his political opponents.
Like Reagan, Thompson comes from a blue-collar background and made the most of the opportunities that were presented to him.
Like Reagan, Fred has been solidly conservative on defense and foreign policy issues and a small-government federalist on social issues, personal liberty and returning power to the states.
But Fred has never compared himself to Ronald Reagan. Thompson has said, "We all invoke the name of Ronald Reagan because we respect him so much. But I don't think any of us are foolish enough to think that we can be Ronald Reagan. There'll never be another Ronald Reagan. I admire him for an additional reason, and that is because he was such a wonderful communicator to the American people. And the reason that he was wasn't because of his acting ability or any techniques or anything like that. It's because he was so believeable. And he was so believeable because he believed. He believed strongly in what he thought was best for the country. And he believed in the country. And you could see that. The camera really doesn't lie about things like that. He was tranparent in that regard, and courageous. Now we can all try to have those qualities without being foolish enough to think that we can be him."
just to tick you off...
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
You didn't tick me off - I've got a sense of humor. :) But I know how the FredLove diaries go - it's like watching the tide come in.
Its funny how many people who have wrote that we need to be conservatives to win, and now are threatening third party votes if their type of conservative doesn't get the nod.
Its our passion for a candidate we want to win that will keep the whitehouse and retake the congress. Nobody ever had passion about "Eh at least he isn't that guy".
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
---"Its funny how many people who have wrote that we need to be conservatives to win, and now are threatening third party votes if their type of conservative doesn't get the nod. "---
I'm sorry, but Huckabee and Rudy are NOT Conservatives.
Just calling every Republican who runs a "Conservative" does not make them one.
One has to realize that polls tend to dramatically shift in the later-primary states based on how things go down in Iowa and New Hampshire. 1976 was really the last time that a candidate survived a string of initial defeats, and went on to nearly win the thing; and, in all fairness, Reagan had a much better calendar to work with.
With everything front-loaded the way it is, now, I just don't think Fred can pull it out without showing strong (a close second or third) in Iowa, and a win in South Carolina.
I am not sure of many things in this primary. But I am pretty darn sure that coming in 4th or worse in IA, NH, and MI is doing to kill any momentum and dry up funding.
His best hope is for a Huckabee implosion in IA, McCain knockout in NH and MI. Then it's Rudy vs. Romney. Perhaps he could win SC then. But I don't see Huck or McCain dropping out before 2/5. Thus, Fred has to win supporters away from them. He hasn't been successful with that so far.
If Fred comes in 3rd in IA and then beats expectation in NH and MI, perhaps he's still going strong for SC. But that's the best case scenario and it isn't a very good one.
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The thing is though, that there might not be enough *time* between the early states and Super Tuesday for the vaunted death of momentum to matter yet.
We'll see I guess.
When Fred tries to show up to more than one campaign event per day he might have a chance.
Try paying attention for once.
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Brian Epps
RandomNumbers.us
Baad Spelarz Uv Tha Wurld, Yunyte!
You wrote: "When Fred tries to show up to more than one campaign event per day he might have a chance."
The facts disagree: "But the lazy charge against Thompson, who has a decades-long public and political career, began only this year, and recent evidence suggests that he campaigns as rigorously as his chief opponents for the Republican nomination."
"A review of the two-week period from Nov. 4-17 by Gannett News Service shows Thompson held 28 campaign events, making him No. 2 among the four major GOP candidates. Sen. John McCain of Arizona topped the list at 35. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held 22 and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 20."
Source: The Tennessean, Sunday 11/25/07
Facts can be so pesky when you're trying to spread misinformation, can't they?
Even Fred has said he has to place at least third in Iowa and I know from my (limited) Presidential primary experience that bad showings in Iowa and NH can end a campaign very early.
Oz
Read my most recent story, "What is Thompson's path?" on First Cut Politics
Fred currently is 4/10ths of a percentage point away from Rudy and 3rd place in Iowa, according to the RCP poll avg. With all of the horrible press about how Fred does not have a chance anymore, with Fred still in double digits, and with Fred being that close in Iowa, he has a chance for a win in the expectations game. If he can pull ahead of Rudy, who is not focusing on Iowa, then the supposed dead campaign of Fred can claim the 3rd place win, and being in double digits, when the winner will have less than 30% of the vote, is a win, and will use his bounce to gain in the polls in South Carolina. There are a lot of voters who are tired of the top tier, and really want a conservative, but do not feel that Fred has a chance, and this is showing in the polls. However, if he can change that story to being in 3rd place in Iowa, where no one expected him to compete well, then I believe many will come back to Fred, especially after the damage is done to Huckabee in the press.
I wonder if he has the savvy and brashness to pull that off as well as Slick did?
"If this ain't a mess, it'll do until one shows up." -Sheriff Bell, No Country For Old Men
Great Dark Spot, the article says Reagan didn't win Iowa, and said that others have won neither Iowa or New Hampshire and went on to get the nomination. I had to re-read too. :)
I don't think Huckabee has a lock on Arkansas! I believe their legislators are backing Fred!
The legislators are backing Fred. And if I remember right Huck is not liked that well in Arkansas by the populace.
To many tax hikes and ethics problems. It doesn't help Huck that all those hard drives were destroyed when he left office. There might not be anything wrong with doing that but it just doesn't look good. Makes on think that there was something to hide.
Mike was elected twice as Governor, by large margins. Hard to say he was not popular. Second, Fred's problem is greater than Iowa and N.H. His campaign would love it if that was all that is happening. Fred is falling in the polls nationally, and in every poll taken since he entered the race, even the places he was expected to be strongest in. I started with Fred myself, and came to the conclusion that he can not extend beyond his ideological base. It is time to wake up, he has no shot. And I say that with sadness, because on the issues he is the best, just short of Duncan Hunter, who can not win either. Fred does need to stay in the race for a lot of reasons.
He'd probably be polling even with Obama right now (ahead of Edwards). He's popular alright....just with the wrong sort of folks.
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He could still make enough impact in the race to throw it to Giuliani!
At this point not sure Fred makes any impact beyound Iowa and N.H. If he does as poorly as he is showing, South Carolina is just a dream. And then he quits.
"Fred Thompson: Not Out By A Long Shot!"
He may not be out yet, but his day of reckoning is coming fast and and then you can call him - Dead-Fred !
It is currently a 4-man race and Fred can only watch it rush by.
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
I've seen the projections that Rudy could lose IA and NH, and likely MI, and still survive. Does that apply to McCain? I doubt it. If it's a 4-man race, Fred's the fourth.
Thanks for your analysis!
FOR FRED, FOR THE FUTURE!
Thompson will not have the luxury of Southern state momentum going into the Florida primary. S.C. is the only primary prior to Florida's on Jan. 29.
I think you got it. South Carolina is the key to this race. The candidate that wins the South Carolina primary probably wins the nomination. I realize that South Carolina isn't representative of the country. It's much more conservative than most other states. But when was the last time the winner of the South Carolina primary lost the Republican nomination? I can't think of the last time this happened. Probably 1976 when Ford lost it to Reagan and Ford still won the nomination.
You may be right, but when was the last time there were four to five candidates -- all polling in the 10-20% range going into South Carolina?
I'm beginning to think SC will be the first state in which we see one of the top five drop out.
I think after Super Tuesday, we'll see the pool narrow to two, maybe three.
Texas, in early March, could decide it. Right now Rudy and Huck are running first and second there.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
voters are nutty as the Palm Beach County fiasco in 2000, I see Florida as the key state in this primary race. With Super-duper Tuesday immediately following the FL primary, we'll have a crystal clear view of momentum. Tick tock, it's almost here.
There is one benefit to parliamentary elections... they last a month or two tops... at least the active part.
We have moved into active campaigning for a year or two or three or four or six. It's destroying the actual governing part of their jobs.
I'd like to see a very close race so more than three states gets to decide this thing.
for the country. I just hope he can rise above the five percent mark in Iowa. He doesn't have the money nor the organization.
But I'm behind Fred even in RG-crazy Florida.
Well, in the first place, Ronald Reagan DID win in NH - at that is credited with giving him the momentum that won him the nomination. I think everyone now knows that Fred is no Reagan in any sense of the word. At best, he is a regional candidate now and as he is not even the strongest candidate from that region he really has no 'slot' in the race.
But don't worry - you wrote a rah-rah Fred diary so you are likely to get several recommends, anyway.